April CET

[Stratos Ferric]

How would that compare to the 91-06 "norm"?

The average for the 10 years to 2006 was 8.7C. On that basis we are going to come in around 3C above what was already a historically high starting baseline.

Remember it well. My arm was in plaster....very uncomfortable! Was not 75 also a corker? Mind you, man-made global warming had not been invented back then....we were all to busy prophesying some other gloom and doom. Can't for the life of me remember what it was though....... B)

But summer 1975 was a one off.

All i want to say is how i can't wait for April to end and for us to concentrate on the May CET watching the AprilCERT climb and climb has been very painful

Er, I wouldn't bet against the same thing in May. If we end April 4C above the line then, ipso fact, we start May in pretty much the same place, being that May 1 comes right after April 30th. In fact, where we are now is up there with early June. We've got a long way to fall back before we're anywhere near matching experienced temps with what the calendar would imply.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Summers 1975 and 1976 were two hot ones in succession, but SF is right about the "one-off" point; the summers of 1977-1980 were then decidedly cool.

I wonder when Philip Eden will end up needing to re-scale the temperature graph...

[summer blizzard]

I still think that Manley will come out no higher than 11.3C rounded up.

[jemtom]

I still think that Manley will come out no higher than 11.3C rounded up.

That looks about the mark to me too SB, with max temps likely to be lower than previously forecast across the last 3 days, as indeed they have been today by some considerable margin.

Still a staggering month though all things considered.

[reef]

Phillip Eden's Manley CET has now hit 11.0°C

CET: (Apr 1-27): 11.0°C (+3.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-27): 12.8mm ( 23 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-27): 191.8hr (138 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Hadley is most likely at around 11.2°C, it was running a tenth of a degree above the Manley to the 22nd.

[Stratos Ferric]

I still think that Manley will come out no higher than 11.3C rounded up.

It'll certainly reach 11.3, it may still reach 11.4. I suspect yesterday's 11 is rounded down slightly. Definitely more of a NE'ly component in a strong flow today, but tomorrow and Moday the flow is projected to be more SE'ly, so less cooling from the still cold N Sea. Also, overnight mins are forecast to stay well up. Adding 0.4C over the next three days, or slightly less if today is a round down, should be easily achieved.

[reef]

CET: (Apr 1-28): 11.1°C (+3.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-28): 12.8mm ( 22 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-28): 204.0hr (141 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Another rise from yesterday. Astonishing that we are not only going to break the April record, but that its going to be beaten by over half a degree. All very worrying if you ask me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

And sure enough, Philip has had to re-scale the April temperature graph!

[Stratos Ferric]

CET: (Apr 1-28): 11.1°C (+3.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-28): 12.8mm ( 22 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-28): 204.0hr (141 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Another rise from yesterday. Astonishing that we are not only going to break the April record, but that its going to be beaten by over half a degree. All very worrying if you ask me.

Yes, it's a continuing pattern. The return periods calculated previously for this run were based purely on the run of positional finishes; when you factor in the extent by which some records have fallen then the return period, rather like the plot on Philip's graphs, goes off the scale.

[Snowly does it]

Yes, it's a continuing pattern. The return periods calculated previously for this run were based purely on the run of positional finishes; when you factor in the extent by which some records have fallen then the return period, rather like the plot on Philip's graphs, goes off the scale.

Out of interest, would the effect (statistically speaking) of the established warming trend offset the extent of the excess - in other words, given the degree of warming we have experienced, would we not expect synoptics in line with 'record breakers' to establish the sorts of figures we are seeing?

Hmmm, let me put it another way - clinmate change is making 'record synoptics' more likely and GW is making the records fall by a large margain?

[kold weather]

The real clincher thoguh of GW would be when that May record falls, because that month is by some margin the warmest May ever. This April may wlel come close to challanging its massive anomaly though it'll probably be a good 0.4C below the anomaly of that month.

Still there is no doubting, this has been a truely exceptional month, they do seem to be happening mor eand more often, July 06, September 06, October 06, January 07 and now this month, quite a impressive run of massivly above average months.

[Optimus Prime]

Quite impressive? More like mind boggling, Aweinspiring incredibleness.

The only time it's been this esceptional was in 1659 when all months were record breakingly warm...and cold for that matter.

[Stratos Ferric]

Out of interest, would the effect (statistically speaking) of the established warming trend offset the extent of the excess - in other words, given the degree of warming we have experienced, would we not expect synoptics in line with 'record breakers' to establish the sorts of figures we are seeing?

Hmmm, let me put it another way - clinmate change is making 'record synoptics' more likely and GW is making the records fall by a large margain?

Not quite sure what you mean there SM, but I think that what you're asking is "given the current warming trend how exceptional are these anomalies"? If that is the question, and in any case if not, I will be running some analysis when I get a moment that attempts to answer this. It's a good question. My instinct is that a significant amount of the current warmth is still outside (above) trend.

[Snowly does it]

Not quite sure what you mean there SM, but I think that what you're asking is "given the current warming trend how exceptional are these anomalies"?

Yes, that's what I am asking.

[Calrissian]

Well, its been a fun month.

Just 1 day left, and it'll be kinda warm again tomorrow. I guess 11.5 is the likely number, which will be a mighty fine lead in for May.

Calrissian: troubles with email

[Kentish Man]

Surprisingly Manley still on 11.1C (Apr 1 -29) so 11.2C looks like final outcome at best

Edited April 30, 2007 by Kentish Man

[Stratos Ferric]

Surprisingly Manley still on 11.1C (Apr 1 -29) so 11.2C looks like final outcome at best

SB certainly called it right at the end of last week: the wind has stayed far enough round in the E to peg temps back a little, so 11.1 or 11.2 looks like the finishing point. How implausible did that look five weeks ago?

[Snowly does it]

SB certainly called it right at the end of last week: the wind has stayed far enough round in the E to peg temps back a little, so 11.1 or 11.2 looks like the finishing point. How implausible did that look five weeks ago?

Yes, I would cerrtainly encourage everyone to ignore my posts for the first half of April in this thread as they were written at a time when 11 in April wasn't allowed. hrrmph

Hadley probably 11.3/11.4 then given Manley is a likely 11.1/11.2 finisher (it might just squeeze a rounded up 11.3 if today gets some high values in)

[johnholmes]

just a quick note about this area, probably not that different from many others with record breaking temperatures and about the same with rainfall.

My mean is 12.2C, oddly enough the nearest to that for round here is RAF Finningley way back in 1943 with 11.2C. Not an era especially noted for GW!

The average max temperature of 18.0C is nothing short of astounding, more like early June than April.

It also kicks a hole, at least for this month, in what seems to be generally happening to cause mean temperatures to be so high, namely higher minimum values.

Edited April 30, 2007 by johnholmes

[J10]

The Manley CET, up to and including the 30th is 11.2c, so we can take this for the figure for April.

Source ( www.climate-uk.com )

On this basis, the figures for the April CET are now in, again these are subject to any subsequent changes.

I have included the spreadsheet with all the figures and GIF versions of the 2 competitions running, the yearly comp and the Spring comp.

Spreadsheet

Spring Competition

Yearly Competition

Monthly Comments - In a record breaking month, most people understandably put in a CET figure well below the actual outcome, but 2 people got it spot on so a very well done to both Gray Wolf and Vince. Vince has risen from 87th overall to 49th while Grey Wolf has risen from 63rd to 37th.

In the overall comp, Timmy H has gone from 2nd to 1st, Stratos Ferric has risen from 7th to 2nd. Stargazer is 3rd (from 1st), Ac Brixton is 4th from 3rd, while Reef remains 5th.

In the seasonal comp, 2 months have elapsed in Spring and SNOW-MAN2006 leads with Stratos Ferric again in 2nd, while phil n.warks finishes the podium places.

[Stratos Ferric]

just a quick note about this area, probably not that different from many others with record breaking temperatures and about the same with rainfall.

My mean is 12.2C, oddly enough the nearest to that for round here is RAF Finningley way back in 1943 with 11.2C. Not an era especially noted for GW!

The average max temperature of 18.0C is nothing short of astounding, more like early June than April.

It also kicks a hole, at least for this month, in what seems to be generally happening to cause mean temperatures to be so high, namely higher minimum values.

I haven't checked John, but I'd hasard that the upside in summer of late has been daytime, whilst in winter it's clearly the minima holding up that are disproportionately effecting things. As you say though, remarkable maxima this month, and the recent pattern of day after day well above the climatic norm continues.

The Manley CET, up to and including the 30th is 11.2c, so we can take this for the figure for April.

Source ( www.climate-uk.com )

On this basis, the figures for the April CET are now in, again these are subject to any subsequent changes.

....

Excellent stuff Jack-O!

[Gray-Wolf]

I think I'll stick my neck out and go for 11.2c (fog insulating night timer mins and high daytime max's) I wiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me!!!

I shall listen to my 'inner voice' more often LOL.

[summer blizzard]

In the Spring comp i am 28th out of around 60...

In the yearly comp i am around 60th out of around 80.

One question, i thought that if u missed a month, you were no longer included in the competition?????????

[J10]

In the Spring comp i am 28th out of around 60...

In the yearly comp i am around 60th out of around 80.

One question, i thought that if u missed a month, you were no longer included in the competition?????????

In the Seasonal Comp, you must enter every month, but in the yearly comp you are allowed to miss 2 months.

[ukmoose]

Thanks for the charts JackOne - great stuff. Well done to those flying up the table putting the rest of us to shame! Must try harder.

Moose