Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[Joneseye]

I'm not sure it was ever predicted to affect your area Stuart.

I am not sure it was ever predicted.

[Stuart]

I am not sure it was ever predicted.

but the storms was only 47 km away from my area now it 63km

Edited June 7, 2007 by Stuart H

[Costa Del Fal]

Dont worry Stuart! There will be Many more times for storms this year im sure!

[Joneseye]

but the storms was only 47 km away from my area now it 63km

Yeah I know that. The point I was trying to make is that it/they were very much unexpected. I cannot recall anyone predicting storms for the area in question at any point.

[PB22]

The heavy and thundery rain progged to affect the southeast and East Anglia later tonight and into tomorrow is slightly further west on the 12Z GFS - could be a good soaking for some parts:

[Stuart]

but I may see some start of next week

[Arrows]

I think I'm in a good spot for anything

[Stuart]

Lightning do not look that far away from me area

Edited June 7, 2007 by Stuart H

[Arrows]

it's worrying me because the cloud has exploded within the last few hours, I wonder how much more it'll develop

[Stuart]

bbc weather website got a weather Watch up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/warnings.shtml

[Nick F]

The only thing i could see is winds from the SE or ESE'ly direction from that of the surface low blowing them (trough perhaps?) into the forementioned regions But is this likely?

It's not really the surface winds which determine storm motion, it is the upper winds which do. The Kent forecast skew-t for 0600hrs tomorrow morning (below) shows that surface winds are likely to be NE'ly in direction, but winds above 700mb are S to SE'ly in direction, the winds above 700mb mainly determine storm motion:

Sometimes if low broken stratus cloud is present, the observer will see this low cloud move from the NE if winds are surface NE'ly, but if mid and upper winds are from the SE mid-level cloud upwards will been seen to move from the SE above.

[Costa Del Fal]

I think i may get thunderstorms on Sunday Evening and Monday.

[Supacell]

If there is lightning from this little system will it actually be visible with all this low cloud around?

[Nick F]

If there is lightning from this little system will it actually be visible with all this low cloud around?

Not sure about further North, but the earlier low cloud has cleared here, blanket of mid-level cloud (altostratus and altocumulus) present here moving North. Gave a few heavy splashes of rain earlier.

I guess if low cloud was present at night under a mid-level storm, sheet lightning would be all you see.

[Supacell]

We really need this low cloud to clear. Although having said that - if it looks good later i may consider a short drive out to the south east!

Met Office have warnings out now - up to 80mm of rain in parts, thats a huge amount!!!

[suffolkboy_]

We really need this low cloud to clear. Although having said that - if it looks good later i may consider a short drive out to the south east!

Met Office have warnings out now - up to 80mm of rain in parts, thats a huge amount!!!

Indeed, especially for these parts. I remember a large thunderstorm hitting one morning about 5 years ago, gave 15mm in the space on an hour, and that sent rivers way over, so 80mm in a day would cause me to be stuck in the village for the day - not that im complaining!

[Nick F]

Some thunderstorms currently grazing the East Lothian coast towards Edinburgh:

Upper vortex/low causing some strong vorticity and lift over Ern Scotland:

[suffolkboy_]

Looks like some quite beefy thunderstorms over France already, plenty on lightning - hopefully these will bulid further and continue pushing northwards! I've added the latest netweather radar image:

[Stuart]

well my thunder bolt unit saying storm is local but they are no storm here

[kold weather]

80MM is certainly very high amounts of rainfall, not quite sure I buy that, heck even the GFS is way down on that figure, it gives 43MM as a max over the next 48hrs over the north-sea. However then again with these convective systems if one very heavy cell just sits over the same area for a couple of hours then the totals can quickly add up, also the UKMO 0z run was also far slower then the GFS run to get rid of the mass of thundery rain, it sticks itself over East Anglia for pretty much the whole of Friday.

Its fair to say there are some beefy cells over E.France right now, these are the ones we need to watch as has been talked about already and these are drifting WNW right now with the main cell activity in the line of greatest instability stretching S-N over E.France (you can't miss it, very well defined on its western side!) which is forecast to slowly help to develop more cells further north as the instability feeds northwards and those cells over France will probably take a little visit...

[stormchaser1]

STRIKE DISPLAY currently showing strikes close Clacton on Sea area !!!

Nigel

[Nick F]

STRIKE DISPLAY currently showing strikes close Clacton on Sea area !!!

Nigel

Spurious, as there's nowt on the radar around there atm.

[Button Up]

Spurious, as there's nowt on the radar around there atm.

No lightening strikes here!

[Buckster76]

this is what I'm hoping for later in the mean-while I can enjoy it simulated

FSX with new ActiveSkyX weather system addon/weather modelling

No lightening strikes here!

[RisingStar]

Can anyone notice any differences between the current track and forecasted track of the storms yet?