Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[PersianPaladin]

I think the area of instability north of York latitude will weaken as the area further south (and zone of greater CAPE) strengthens towards the late evening. Probably won't push much further east though.

Typical law of sod really. Met-office forecasts scattered thundery showers for north-east England; things end up further south in reality.

[Supercell]

Any reports from underneath this behemoth that I can see to my east. A very dark sky spilling westwards...

[SnowJoke]

stopped raining here now about 5 mins or so ago, everything is nice and wet. Do the old gardens good though. The showers around here and further south look like they are intensifying rapidly and seem to be feeding off of the avaliable CAPE. Some of the cores look very intense now, wouldn't be suprised if people start to report hail soon, then maybe fingers crossed electrical activity

Update: I'm sure i've just seen some IC lightning to the east of my location. Can't hear any thunder though

Edited June 3, 2007 by SnowJoke

[Richie V]

What a plesant suprise, Bright flashes of lightning in the last 3 mins out to my west/ north west WNW

[Supercell]

No electricity here yet. Moderate rainfall, but worse to come looking east.

[Nick F]

Well, the convergence line ended up further West than GFS predicted this morning, surface moisture over the South has increased aswell from the West off the Atlantic via SW winds west of the convergence line which is helping fuel the showers - something that looked limited South central England earlier with drier air present. If any cells become electrically active in the next hour or so, it is most likely the Southern cells of the convergence line, but as always with GFS it isn't always accurate to where best instability is present:

More opportunity tomorrow for heavy thundery showers over the West Country, Central Southern England and South Wales - with alot of moisture around over the South and West by then and an upper trough looking to move North over the S/SW with steepening lapse rates and CAPE as a result:

[Darren Bown]

Its really odd, it feels like limbo here, the clouds have actually started moving from a SE direction to a NE direction.... really odd and sudden direction change....

Daz

[PersianPaladin]

I never expected anything for my location anyway.

Oh well, who needs thunder. Leave that for the southerners.

[tornadomanuk]

Just had a quick look at the 5 minute rain radar and was wondering about what looks like a large cell giving quite a bit of rain just off the south hams area of Devon.

Not electrified by the looks of things but alot of rain

[SnowJoke]

Absolutely tipping it down again in MK, there must be something electrified around somewhere, my sky dish is picking up electrical interference and the telly picture has jumped a few times with a crackling static sound on the audio. Looks like the 2 southern most cells are still intensifying according to the latest MET radar

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all

extremly dark outside due to that storm line moving in (other than its getting dark anyway)but no action as i can see been waiting for the 22.00 radar from the metoffice to see if we have any intensive growth in the storm line.

i see our neighbours to the North IN Milton Keynes have had heavy rain and a few flashes as for here in Luton other than a menacing sky nothing to report as yet.

LO

UPDATE: looks like the storm line is showing signs of intensifying to the west of london up as far as Buckinghamshire according to the latest Meto radar, and current observations here in Luton it looks like something is about to happen as you can make out the blacken sky as the night is drawing but this line is very slow moving indeed, i wonder if with this slow movement that something quite wild is about to kick off .

Edited June 3, 2007 by Luton Observation

[scotto]

could somebody tell me whether this band of showers (possibly thundery) are likely to move any further east, as currently they are about 30 miles to the west of me, around the nottingha area. Any response would be grateful, thanks.

[SnowJoke]

could somebody tell me whether this band of showers (possibly thundery) are likely to move any further east, as currently they are about 30 miles to the west of me, around the nottingha area. Any response would be grateful, thanks.

Not sure if they are actually moving eastwards at the moment, they seem to be more or less stationery or moving slowly NNW as the easterly flow seems to be holding back the westerly encroach.

[Vince]

Has anyone noticed how far south the showers are, alomost down to London!

This was'nt forcast by the bbc. Cant see any lightning on the any of the detectors.

certainly was ,even on here some were saying not south of Northern England , must of had a good 10mm of rain in the last hour

weather its amazing innit

all thats missing is the lightshow

[SnowJoke]

Very potent here, rain is still heavy / torrential. Just when you think it's easing it intensifies once more. All this is coming from the same cell that started to develop around 8 Pm this evening. Must be approaching atleast 20mm or more now in rainfall total

Edited June 3, 2007 by SnowJoke

[Lincs Observation]

Ok just looked at the 23.00 radar and its good night now for all of us storm watching as the storm band is fragmenting, the large cells an hour ago to my west are now just the remenants of the front and i would guess that by the 00.00 radar all of that storm front will have dispersed leaving a clear night ahead.

so with that i will bid you all good night.

LO

[mackerel sky]

Just spoken to my wife who is at work in Northampton and its been sheeting down there for the past 3 hours. Here, 12 miles to the east its dry as a bone. I don't think its moving east, just going to fizzle out in the areas already affected. I did hear one distant rumble of thunder about 9pm though.

These "storms" decided the M1 was the place to be tonight. Could have really done with them here as my hayfever is terrible and its still muggy and the air is full of pollen.

Edited June 3, 2007 by mackerel sky

[Joneseye]

More opportunity tomorrow for heavy thundery showers over the West Country, Central Southern England and South Wales - with alot of moisture around over the South and West by then and an upper trough looking to move North over the S/SW with steepening lapse rates and CAPE as a result:

Status Quo with the current GFS run. I will be keeping a close eye on the radar today to see if any storms break out..

[VillagePlank]

Thunderstorms possible, but unlikely, today, in the London region, I think. Temps will need to rise quite high to break CIN; should convection kick off we still need to break the relatively dry area around 600hPa, up to higher levels where it's more moist. The atmosphere is not particular buoyant to support the start of convection, either, with an LI of +2, and hardly any CAPE.

At best 20% for this area I would say, most probably less.

Alas, no fireworks, then, for me birfday!

Edited June 4, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Joneseye]

Alas, no fireworks, then, for me birfday!

Happy Birthday VP!

[VillagePlank]

Cheers Joneseye!

[A Gower Guy]

Got some convection to the south west, the cloud is visibly bubbling up.

[Zenarcher]

16c here a nice sunny day to with 10mph breeze

Edited June 4, 2007 by weathermaster

[Joneseye]

Latest Net-Weather lightning detector shows a strike to the east of Reading

[THE MISSFITS]

Latest Net-Weather lightning detector shows a strike to the east of Reading

No sign of anything here in Wycombe, it's grey, cool and breezy with spots of rain in the air from time to time. Feels more like March than June and I'll be surprised if anything kicks off here today!