Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[Mad Murdoch]

You never know some of this might turn thundery.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

[Nick F]

The trigger will be a line of wind convergence as seen below.

Areas at risk are Lincolnshire, East Midlands and down to areas such as Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire.

I broadly agree with heavy showers developing along the convergence line shown on GFS wind charts for this afternoon, though I think further North than you suggest will be where the risk for heavy showers to break out is. Reason being is that 00z soundings were sampling rather dry surface air moving NE off the continent, this is also shown on GFS relative humidity charts for this afternoon - this will limit convection over the areas you mention:

-Peak District North across Pennines of Yorks NE upto Northumberland is where I think heavy shower will break out, helped by more sfc moisture available here moving in and additional forcing from orographic uplift.

Limitations are suggested by GFS in less steep lapse rates above 500-400mb, with relatively warmer nose of air above this looking at their forecast skew-ts for Nern England, this may make thunderstorms less likely by reducing the height to which cloud tops can rise, though isolated pockets of strong convection along the convergence line may over come this with perhaps the odd isolated storm possible I guess over the Pennines or North York Moors ahead of the rain band along the cold front to the West.

Cloud will probably bubble up elsewhere over Eastern and Southern England aswell, but convection will generally be capped from rising high enough for showers to develop.

In addition, expect some heavy pulses of rain over SW Scotland over the next few hours as the slow moving cold front across the West develops a slight kink.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Nothing too thundery looking here yet.

Looks like there could be a storm in Wales on the NW radar

[RisingStar]

Already 23c being recorded in many areas this afternoon so it seems likely that some places will exceed the forecast temperature. Lovely day with a few clouds, not looking all that thundery at the moment.

[Supacell]

Looks like there could be a storm in Wales on the NW radar

Sure looks like some heavy rain though no sferics showing, could it be anaprop?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

It doesn't look like anaprop, its moving north.

I think anaprop normally stays in the same place.

Its getting lighter now though but it could be a sign of things to come in the next few hours for some

[Stormraider]

Looking to my West and North West, i cant see the shower cloud as its probably too far away, does look a bit darker out that way though towards the Welsh border. I thought heavy showers were meant to be for central/eastern midlands

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Just watched the BBC video forecast and its quite promising for the North East of England.

He said something like 'a few thunderstorms being triggered in the evening'

[Costa Del Fal]

Clouds Bubbling Up here.

Here does have a chance as its been sunny all day like now!

Also Metcheck gives us 259 cape this evening too!

[Stuart]

Looking at that vid i may get a storm this evening

[Costa Del Fal]

Whats the temp by you at the moment Stuart?

[Stuart]

about 20.0C

[Costa Del Fal]

Its about 24c here. Its very Uncomfortable too.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Its 20.2°C here.

Not sure where in the Borders you are Stuart but the line of showers over the Pennines heading north seems to be getting heavier.

[Stuart]

Its 20.2°C here.

Not sure where in the Borders you are Stuart but the line of showers over the Pennines heading north seems to be getting heavier.

Galashiels

[Geordiesnow]

Just watched the BBC video forecast and its quite promising for the North East of England.

He said something like 'a few thunderstorms being triggered in the evening'

Just watched the forecast and it does look promicing but they said thundery showers up here on Thursday but we only had a rumble and you reported a flash of lightning, so i'm not counting me chickens yet.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I've just overlayed the 1000hpa wind vectors onto the 5 min radar and theres some good convergence up the middle of the country.

Also i've just started my blog where I will be keeping records of every storm this summer with pictures, link is in my sig.

[stormchaser1]

Just got back from North Shields , still warm over that way , However , the Father- in- Laws neighbour had just come back from Amble which is up the coast to the North And they were reporting Heavy Sea fog coming in off the North Sea , and also driving conditions were horrendous {and they said it was also feeling quite cold as well}

Nigel

[Carl]

I've just overlayed the 1000hpa wind vectors onto the 5 min radar and theres some good convergence up the middle of the country.

Also i've just started my blog where I will be keeping records of every storm this summer with pictures, link is in my sig.

What is this and what does it mean for the NE?

I can see the arrows coming together on the pennines, do we want/expect this to move east?

Carl

[Stuart]

here what the metoffice saying for my area so I may still see a storm later this evening

Headline:

Outbreaks of rain, becoming drier and brighter on Monday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, particularly over Dumfries and Galloway. Some brighter spells at first around the Eastern Borders, perhaps with scattered heavy showers. The rain should become lighter and more patchy overnight. Minimum temperature 11 °C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/...st_weather.html

[PersianPaladin]

Just got back from North Shields , still warm over that way , However , the Father- in- Laws neighbour had just come back from Amble which is up the coast to the North And they were reporting Heavy Sea fog coming in off the North Sea , and also driving conditions were horrendous {and they said it was also feeling quite cold as well}

Nigel

The Northumberland coastline has a pretty interesting climate of its own. I've noticed quite significant cooling from the sea and lower temps on there compared to further south; a good example was on 31st August 2005 when it was very warm for the majority of the north-east (particularly inland) but in Alnmouth it was pretty chilly...even into the early afternoon.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

What is this and what does it mean for the NE?

I can see the arrows coming together on the pennines, do we want/expect this to move east?

Carl

I'm hoping somebody will give a better explanation but i'll have a go.

When this wind is coming together like that I think it forces the heat upwards and makes bigger cumulonimbus clouds and more chance of showers/storms breaking out. I'm not sure if it will move east but if it did we would probably have a better chance of storms but as it is, we still have a chance later on.

I hope i'm right

The Northumberland coastline has a pretty interesting climate of its own. I've noticed quite significant cooling from the sea and lower temps on there compared to further south; a good example was on 31st August 2005 when it was very warm for the majority of the north-east (particularly inland) but in Alnmouth it was pretty chilly...even into the early afternoon.

I won't forget the 31st August 2005 in a hurry, that was the day of the best storm I have ever seen.

Edited June 3, 2007 by multi cellular thunderstorm

[Carl]

I'm hoping somebody will give a better explanation but i'll have a go.

When this wind is coming together like that I think it forces the heat upwards and makes bigger cumulonimbus clouds and more chance of showers/storms breaking out. I'm not sure if it will move east but if it did we would probably have a better chance of storms but as it is, we still have a chance later on.

I hope i'm right

I won't forget the 31st August 2005 in a hurry, that was the day of the best storm I have ever seen.

I assume these indicate two fronts coming together?

I think i remember that day too. Hit Newcastle about 17:30 IIRC and lasted for a good hour or more, most intense storm i remember in the North East.

Do hope we get a good storm today but we seem to get very few so i'll not count my chickens just yet!

Carl

[Stuart]

No lightning on net weather radar yet but I think the storms will kick of by late afernoon and in to the evening from Northeast England and maybe up to my area

Edited June 3, 2007 by Stuart H

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Looking quite thundery to my south west now.