Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[Noctilucid]

Although theres nothing on radar the past hour and a half weve had several 'dry' thunderstorms move through here! Thyre moving quite fast and i cant see convection as its all embedded in stratus cloud, aound 2:00pm there were some dark bases around and theyve been producing rumbles since then, the bases are getting larger and darker but still no precip,it has become noticably more humid also.

Joe

[Andy Bown]

Sounds interesting Jshaw.

The 15.45 NW radar update shows the heaviest shower cell approx 10 miles to my NNE, it's popped up quite quickly. Can't pick out much in the sky other than nearby blue sky, Altocumulus at higher levels and some lower level cloud. It's too hazy to see very far unfortunately.

[bethpink]

very warm here today and has gone very black....had a few large drops of rain...looks as if something could be building?

there are some towers building to my east...

Edited June 4, 2007 by bethpink

[RoisinD]

Although theres nothing on radar the past hour and a half weve had several 'dry' thunderstorms move through here! Thyre moving quite fast and i cant see convection as its all embedded in stratus cloud, aound 2:00pm there were some dark bases around and theyve been producing rumbles since then, the bases are getting larger and darker but still no precip,it has become noticably more humid also.

Joe

Thanks for that Joe. I now have a better understanding of what is happening. Haven't heard any rumbles here but have noticed the clouds and the increasing 'mugginess'.

[Noctilucid]

Thanks for that Joe. I now have a better understanding of what is happening. Haven't heard any rumbles here but have noticed the clouds and the increasing 'mugginess'.

Its all cleared off to my south now.

Joe

[kold weather]

Hi Joe, its intersting you mention about those high based stuff, I've got what looks to be a pretty well developed high base cell here, not producing no lightning but its got a low topped anvil as well as a clear inflow but no rain is reaching the surface.

[Thundersquall]

Look how the showers are exactly following the line of convergence.

The flow coming from the east looks too strong, I doubt anywhere east of that line will get anything, hope i'm wrong.

From that chart it seems the South Hams district in Devon could have had a torrenital downpour,

presumably between 9 and 10 pm yesterday evening?

[Paul R]

There's a lot of convection around here at the moment and it's looking dark to the East and South East. Is there good potential for storms around here today or is it just the clouds looking a bit more menacing than they really are?

[Tim B]

Good convection up here too and has become overcast slightly as a result, I've got the strikealert turned on though it hasnt seen anything so far.

[Noctilucid]

Hi Joe, its intersting you mention about those high based stuff, I've got what looks to be a pretty well developed high base cell here, not producing no lightning but its got a low topped anvil as well as a clear inflow but no rain is reaching the surface.

Looking in your direction i cant see much in the way of convection, however, over to my immediate south west there is a high based cell which is quite dark grey, and has some weak mammatus under its low topped anvil, so this must be what you are seeing, i am roughly West-North-West of you.

Convection seems well capped though, the cell that produced the thunder earlier musthave broken this cap, the rest of the convection seen today is just spreading into a stratus layer at mid levels.

Joe

Edited June 4, 2007 by jshaw

[SnowJoke]

Been a gllomy sort of day all day long and a bit misty after the torrential downpour last night. Recorded nearly 28mm of rain in the three hour period up until midnight. Skies have cleared now though and can see some altocumulus castellanus building into the sky

[Lightning Hunter]

It's looking very bleak for thundery weather for the next 7 days. Just a continuation of the dry/warm weather with not alot going on.

Last year we recorded no thunder at all until the end of July. This year looks like going down the same route (only had odd rumble from showers during the early spring).

[biddie]

It's looking very bleak for thundery weather for the next 7 days. Just a continuation of the dry/warm weather with not alot going on.

Last year we recorded no thunder at all until the end of July. This year looks like going down the same route (only had odd rumble from showers during the early spring).

too right then it carried on thundering till december!!

[Marcus_surfer]

The last storm here was back in January. I think some rather big and severe thunderstorms are on the way real soon

[Supercell 89]

Too be honest i think these lastest runs are a load of toosh, i'm sure it'll turn hot and thundery soon.....one can only hope

[SnowJoke]

The weather forcast on BBC LookEast at lunchtime hinted at the possibility of heavy possibly thundery showers along the east anglia and south east coasts on friday afternoon sparked off by the rising temperatures. I feel temps of 25 or 26 degrees celsius inland are likely to initiate some strong sea breezes and with and easterly wind bringing moisture in from the north sea, we are likely to see some low to mid level convergence. Likely areas look like being eastern cambridgeshire, norfolk, suffolk and essex. Kent and eastern sussex may well catch a few heavy showers or storms from northern france later in the day.

please excuse any typo's, the laptop keyboard is a bit tempremental at times!

Edited June 5, 2007 by SnowJoke

[stormchaser1]

Its looking good for Friday for Southern regions

Nigel

[VillagePlank]

Hi StormChaser, with still around three days to go, I'd expect that CAPE to recede back into Northern Europe like it always does

[Joneseye]

Hi StormChaser, with still around three days to go, I'd expect that CAPE to recede back into Northern Europe like it always does

Plus we need to remember that GFS has a tendency to overdo dew points. Also CAPE and LI are only 2 of many ingredients required for storms to form...

[Supacell]

The real problem could be a lack of moisture and a strong Cap if the HP persists.

Although the met office seem to think that there will be isolated thundery showers in the south east on Friday as a trough and a thundery low moves close to the southeast, they have been saying this since the weekend. Its yet another knife edge situation whereby there could be quite a few storms, just the odd ones clipping the south east or nothing at all. I feel we need to develop an E'ly or SE'ly to drive the trough this way. If we keep the NE'ly then it will all stay to our south and east.

I'll be watching the charts closely over the coming runs!

Edited June 6, 2007 by Supacell

[BrickFielder]

Low level dewpoints slowly rises during the week.

The real moisture and warm plume is still to the south as it has been through most of April and May.

Deep long wave troughs have encouraged cut off lows over the atlantic which is partly driven by cooler sea temepratures off the eastern seaboard of the US.

Friday's Story in the south is one of high temperatures and eroding Cap. GFS currently suggests a strong Cap at 700hpa which is broken during the afternoon by high temperatures and a weakening in the Cap. This shows up as an area of convective inhibition with a small zone in the center where it breaks.

700hpa temperatures show where the weakness in the Cap is likely to be.

Forecast SkewT's show things a little clearer.

Will a low level convergence zone ,high temperatures, eroding cap all come together. GFS thinks it is doubtfull at the moment Scotland looks a better bet for a storm on Thursday and Friday with steeper 850-500hPa lapserates.

[Stormraider]

Anyone know what the chances of storms are for Shropshire on Sunday? im thinking about going to Cosford Airshow but no point going if its tipping it down.

Many thanks.

[Joneseye]

Anyone know what the chances of storms are for Shropshire on Sunday? im thinking about going to Cosford Airshow but no point going if its tipping it down.

Many thanks.

Got a feeling that the further away from the south-east you are the better the chances are of it staying dry. I think the south and east may catch a rogue home grown or an import from France, other than that I reckon it will be a nice warm/hot sunny day with a high sun index..

[BrickFielder]

Anyone know what the chances of storms are for Shropshire on Sunday? im thinking about going to Cosford Airshow but no point going if its tipping it down.

Many thanks.

Too far out to really tell but current forecast suggest it should be OK. Bear in mind that thunderstorms over in France will not be that far away though ,so forecasts could change.

[Andy Bown]

There's a lot of storms over the Southern third of France today.

Is that where they're generating from for the SE in a few days time?