Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[VillagePlank]

Still no luck with stockings and high-heels ....

Nevertheless, tonight looks good for Kent. Might be a bit to East for us, Nick, but it will certainly be around I think.

[suffolkboy_]

Very humid feel to things outside tonight, still 14.8C and not realy dropping under all this cloud. I really need some more rain on my lawn, but my gut instinct is that these storms if any will be few and far between - one of those days when it pours down when you're ut doing something, and get home to find it bone dry! I havnt seen any decent lightning in ages, so i'm really hoping this comes off!

Edited June 7, 2007 by suffolkboy_

[kentish_sally]

A sign of things to come?

http://www.buienradar.nl/

[kold weather]

Just had a look at the 12z NMM run which really brings across some hefty rainfall and probably some embedded thunderstorms to boot, in fact its progging some of the heaviest rain I've seen on that model for quite some time:

http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/nm...00PCP03_024.jpg

http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/nm...00PCP03_027.jpg

If this was right then I xcan see why the Met office issued warnings of 80MM being reached locally!

[RisingStar]

What is the accuracy of this NMM run then in comparison to the GFS? (ive never heard of it)

Have to say, it does look rather intense!

[matty8]

I'v been following this situation closely and although looks like extremely heavy rain will effect the South East/East the Cape levels are minimal?!?! I cant see any major activity occuring, maybe the odd rumble.

[Thundersquall]

It appears there have been some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms with torrential downpours in SE Scotland,

going by the last four hours of Met Offie radar.

Please could anyone confirm - I'm merely interested as I don't think these showers/storms were forecast.

[matty8]

It appears there have been some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms with torrential downpours in SE Scotland,

going by the last four hours of Met Offie radar.

Please could anyone confirm - I'm merely interested as I don't think these showers/storms were forecast.

Some organised activity going on up there, grouped together into a clump of showers/storms. Certainly wasn't predicted - only moderate showers were. The conditions have been right up there, they havn't got all the cloud holding temps down.

[Nick F]

It appears there have been some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms with torrential downpours in SE Scotland,

going by the last four hours of Met Offie radar.

Please could anyone confirm - I'm merely interested as I don't think these showers/storms were forecast.

Yes, look back one page to post 329.

[PB22]

18Z GFS increases the intensity of the rain for the southeast for tomorrow:

[Andy H]

-->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Jun 2007, 10:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

18Z GFS increases the intensity of the rain for the southeast for tomorrow:

Paul do you think it will come as far West as Hertfordshire from the looks of that it will just Skim us?

[Nick F]

Interesting looking storm area moving NW over Nern France atm on the radar:

Some differing from model output today to how far West the precipitation is likely to extend in the morning as it moves North, 12z NMM and UKMO as far West as West London, GFS further East clipping East Kent and Ern East Anglia, 18z has ppn further West than 12z - some v. heavy rainfall rates modelled aswell 06z-12z:

EDIT: Paul B beat me to it.

With the models unsure at this close range, radar watching will be the only way forward with forecasting this system moving North with accuracy!

[SnowJoke]

Hmmm interesting developments. MET office now has milton keynes under 40% risk of disruption de to heavy rainfall and storms. Still thinking i'm to far west though to really see any thundery stuff, perhaps with the thermal heating tommorrow things will kick off as the sun is almost at it's strongest levels.

[PB22]

B) --><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Jun 2007, 10:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->18Z GFS increases the intensity of the rain for the southeast for tomorrow:

Paul do you think it will come as far West as Hertfordshire from the looks of that it will just Skim us?

Thats the million dollar question Andy! The exact track of this is still uncertain, even at this short range. A swing to the west or the east is possible, and the trend on the last couple of model runs has been to edge the rain area slightly further west. So to answer your question, I don't know! :lol:

[matty8]

Tomorrow is gonna be an interesting day for the East! Not often you get rain like that predicted for this area on such a large scale

[Arrows]

those charts look tasty, I'm right under the orange on the map. In response to Matty8 there doesn't have to be high cape/LI showing as that is only giving a forcast of what it expects at a certain height. I expect the storms to be pretty widespread given the intensity. Also as you can notice on the sat loops the clouds are shooting up and forming rapidly so that proves there's alot of energy present. I'm looking forward to it all. Hopefully not just rain all day with the occasional heavy burst.

[kentish_sally]

Interesting looking storm area moving NW over Nern France atm on the radar:

With the models unsure at this close range, radar watching will be the only way forward with forecasting this system moving North with accuracy!

Thats an intresting little scenerio there Nick F - It's a shame that cannot be guarenteed even under 12hrs away. I remember following a storm on radar all night and in the last update, a storm cell was 30mins away on radar, yet shifted north away from here. Unpredictable little fella's!

Looks like Met-Office and this board shall be my bed for the night.

Some nice storm cells appearing on MET-O viewing across france to! Let's hope they can drift more westerly

[Nick F]

Some nice storm cells appearing on MET-O viewing across france to! Let's hope they can drift more westerly

As nocturnal cooling occurs in the mid and upper levels, expect more showers and storms to develop overnight over Nern France and move North/NW towards Kent. Often cells will suddenly fire up in the early hours as cloud tops cool and lapse rates steepen. The MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) expected develop tomorrow morning is likely to be helped aswell by an upper cold pool moving East through the Channel above the elevated moist plume advecting North.

[Paul]

Don't forget the UK 5 minute radar is only £3.49 for a month or £23.95 a year - very very good value!! Link in my signature :lol:

[kentish_sally]

So it might even be worth sleeping on my keyboard to keep a watch on the developments with curtains and windows open?!

Hello Paul, Thank you for information about the radar i shall have a look :lol: And a nice website + forum you have. Good work B) Pleasure to be here !

[pinball wizard]

Don't forget the UK 5 minute radar is only £3.49 for a month or £23.95 a year - very very good value!! Link in my signature :lol:

Are storms guaranteed for those who subscribe?

[Supacell]

GFS have very low storm risk for the south east, this surprises me as it is quite clear now that the risk is there. Best chances look to be on the south coast just north of the IOW if GFS is to be believed. :lol:

lol Pinball. If it were then i bet Paul could charge a LOT more!!!

Edited June 7, 2007 by Supacell

[kentish_sally]

If GFS Was to be believed, then it makes sence how the SE storm risk is low compared to as you correctly stated, North of I.O.W - Cape and LI arent given for SE in the 18z run compared to IOW. Shame but we arent even into summer fully :lol:

[Arrows]

they're elevated storms which the GFS won't show as having high cape and LI remember

[Nick F]

Precipitation area developing over the East Channel atm really exploding to life on the 23.15 radar, looks like it could move towards Hastings-Dungeness area in the next hour, not sure if it's electrically active yet. Maybe worth staying up for.