when will the rain stop?

[SteveB]

Mr Data how much more did we add the total for May-August, yesterday?.

Edited August 3, 2007 by SteveB

[tinybill]

Mr Data how much more did we add the total for May-August, yesterday?.

could problems in ireland to-day it looks like

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 414.1

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 293.7

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

Wettest May to August periods by end of July

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

1828: 428.3

1830: 421.2

2007 414.1

Wettest Julys

1828 182.6

1834 164.2

1775 158.4

1880 157.5

1888 156.6

1787 155.0

1839 152.9

1816 152.0

1798 149.5

1779 149.3

1767 148.0

1822 145.2

1829 143.7

1875 142.7

2007 140.9

So we've had the driest April since 1912 and 4th driest on record

The wettest May since 1967 and the 10th wettest on record

The wettest June since 1860 and the 2nd wettest on record

The wettest July since 1888 and 15th wettest on record

Wettest summer on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

324.1 1799

321.1 1830

318.4 1931

316.8 1888

316.2 1834

314.8 1792

311.6 1816

309.5 1958

309.5 1903

306.7 1954

303.7 1872

303.0 1875

302.9 1917

302.8 1882

297.7 1946

295.6 1789

293.9 1776

293.7 2007 by end of July

[Weather-history]

Remarkably, there were 33 days that recorded less than 1mm in that May-July period with a combined rainfall total of 9.4mm

That means 404.7mm fell in 59 days or 6.85mm per day.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May to August periods by end of July

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

1828: 428.3

1830: 421.2

2007 421.1

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

324.1 1799

321.1 1830

318.4 1931

316.8 1888

316.2 1834

314.8 1792

311.6 1816

309.5 1958

309.5 1903

306.7 1954

303.7 1872

303.0 1875

302.9 1917

302.8 1882

300.7 2007

Well we've cracked the 300mm barrier for summer. The first time since 1958

[SteveB]

I think there is a fair chance we will beat 1956's 331.1 by the end of August. Maybe even 1927's 336.8 mm.

[DR Hosking]

Thanks for all the stats MR Data, do you work for the met office or something or just spend your entire life creating databases!?

Your posts are always informative and the extreme weather ovet the last couple of years whether it be heat, drought or flood have certainly kept you busy!

[Timmytour]

Very early on, page 1 in fact, I posted the following in response to the title of this thread..

28th July.

Heatwave conditions start to spread from the south west to all areas of the country.

Great news for anyone who's booked up a holiday in Cornwall at that time.

Coincidentally...... B)

Not, I will admit, the most stunning prediction ever made. Nonetheless I would say that, having arrived in Devon on the evening of 28th July in the pouring rain for the first part of a two week holiday in the South West, (one week Devon, one week Cornwall), we then had two weeks of pretty decent weather. There was only one day, towards the end of the first week, when one of our "rain contingent plans" was put into operation, and even then, as we came out of the cinema in the afternoon after watching Shrek 3, we were greeted with warm sunshine under blue skies. I have managed to return with a decent tan, which no doubt would have been better had I not roasted myself on the first day in the belief that I neded to soak up the sun while it was on offer!

I've been to Cornwall with the family four times now, previously in 2002,2003 and 2004. And while what we've just experienced fell short of the previous heatwaves that accompanied, I feel sure that in the minds of my kids, looking back on the photos and videos of their holiday in the summer of 2007, they'll recall it as being a very pleasant summer!

[Weather-history]

Wettest May to August periods by end of July

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

1828: 428.3

2007: 425.5

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

324.1 1799

321.1 1830

318.4 1931

316.8 1888

316.2 1834

314.8 1792

311.6 1816

309.5 1958

309.5 1903

306.7 1954

305.1 2007

[SteveB]

Going to add a least another 20mm to those totals today, and with some heavy showers predicted tomorrow we could go even higher.

[kold weather]

Yep we are going to break into the top 20 in terms of wettest summers ever by the end of today given the rainfall we've already seen this morning. We look like beating 1828 and 1797 in terms of the May-August rainfall.

[Timmytour]

Mr Data's stuff is terrific... can I add my thanks to those previously submitted.

One thing I've picked up on from the years listed as the Wettest summers on record (June-August)

The period of 49 years between this year and the previous year on the list is by far and away the biggest gap between the "wet summers" listed. In fact taken from 1958, the last "wet summer" any previous period of 49 years included at least FOUR such summers and in the equivalent period up until the 1860 summer there were TEN such periods.

All of which leads me to conclude that those associating this particular wet summer with Global Warming seem pretty far off the mark. On this basis it is surely making British summers drier and we have got the summer we are having DESPITE global warming, not because of it.

Edited August 14, 2007 by Timmytour

[johnholmes]

interesting conclusion there, who can say that you are wrong, no doubt some will, but its an interesting sequence you show.

[kold weather]

Interesting Timmy and if you think aobut it makes perfect sense what your saying as well, if the polar ice caps are contracting then in theory the jet stream should also contract towards the poles and thus leaving us more and more under the influence of the subtropical high pressure belt.

Back in the 17's and 18's with the little ice age no doubts the jet stream would have been surpressed more often which leads to a greater chance of a wet summer like this one.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May to August periods by end of July

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

2007: 438.5

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

324.1 1799

321.1 1830

318.4 1931

318.0 2007

[DR Hosking]

Mr Data, it says that is the wettest May to August period to the end of July, is it possible to show us wettest May - August (end of) with this years rainfall up to today?

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, it says that is the wettest May to August period to the end of July, is it possible to show us wettest May - August (end of) with this years rainfall up to today?

Sorry, that should be up to the 14th of August

Wettest May to August periods

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

2007: 438.5

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

324.1 1799

321.1 1830

318.4 1931

318.0 2007

[kold weather]

Looks like we are going to break into the top 5 of the May-August rainfall given we only need 0.2MM to beat that today which should be no problem. Rainfall looks like its going to be limited past the 20th ans the Azores high starts to move in so I doubt we'll get the record May-August but we should get into the top 4, outside shot at top 3 if we see a thundery breakdown towards the end of the month.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May to August periods

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

2007: 447.7

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.3 1848

337.8 1782

337.0 1852

336.8 1927

331.1 1956

329.1 1797

327.3 2007

[DR Hosking]

ooh, only 17mm more rain this month and we will be in the top 10 wettest summers!

[The PIT]

Looking some Heavy rain over in the west at the moment which seems to be getting stronger as well.

[SteveB]

Hows it looking on the totals front Mr Data?. Had a fair bit of rain yesterday.

[DR Hosking]

Any news Mr Data on the totals, I was slap bang in the middle of the CET on Saturday and Sunday and it rained heavily for a good few hours on both days.

[Weather-history]

Any news Mr Data on the totals, I was slap bang in the middle of the CET on Saturday and Sunday and it rained heavily for a good few hours on both days.

Philip Eden hasn't updated his site yet but I would guess, its the wettest summer since 1912 now.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May to August periods

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

2007: 465.1

Wettest summers on record (June-August)

409.7 1912

409.2 1879

396.3 1829

370.8 1860

362.2 1768

355.9 1828

351.2 1839

347.3 1775

345.7 1817

344.7 2007 Up to 19th August

Wettest summer since 1912