August CET

[Bobby]

Through some wild wild guesses in the dark, my prediction is 16.8. May change...

[highcliffe2]

16.2c, which I think is bang-on the 1971-2000 average.

[Glacier Point]

Upper range +1.3, lower +0.2, therefore the mid point = +.55

16.8C please

[damianslaw]

I went for 16.7 for July and so I am going for 16.7 for August aswell. I think we may see some quite cool nights which will offset by and large a bias to mostly above maximum temperatures by day.

I do not foresee a particularly warm month

[summer blizzard]

Hmm, this is a difficult month to call, my two main forecasts call for CET's of 17.2C and 14.7C, normally i would back the warmer outcome or take the middle route, however i am tepted to take the cool option, for now i will lower my prediction to 15.9C, which is 0.3C below average however i may change this one final time before the end of the month.

[cheeky_monkey]

16.9c please

[Mr Maunder]

I really cannot see a dramatic warm up coming in August. I expect it to be wetter than average, although nothing like the rainfall amounts in July! With the ground so wet it will be difficult for temperatures to rise quickly during any quieter and potentially warmer spells that occur. So. I'm going for 16.1c.

MM

[VillagePlank]

16.2 for me, please

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My Forecast is released and i am predicting a plesant 17!

SNOW-MAN2006

[Stratos Ferric]

Hmm, this is a difficult month to call, my two main forecasts call for CET's of 17.2C and 14.7C, normally i would back the warmer outcome or take the middle route, however i am tepted to take the cool option, for now i will lower my prediction to 15.9C, which is 0.3C below average however i may change this one final time before the end of the month.

SB, I continue to marvel at your multitude of forecasts, and, which is more, your tendency then to ignore each of them. However, the reality is that we can never tell...

Anyway, I AM off somewhere hot for a few days so being forced into an unusually early punt - not that waiting unti the last minute helped in July.

I really can't see cool / wet continuing for much longer, and SSTs are recovering generally, though still low to our SW. This points to the jet staying nearby, but the thermal equator should be at its max now and if its going to exert its influence now is the time. We also have to go back to 1998 to find back-to-back cold months in summer. Finally, we're overdue a decent August.

Consequently, much more up than down this month as I see it.

16.9C

[The PIT]

Me thinks people shouldn't be allowed to swap and change through the Month only before it starts.

[Stratos Ferric]

Me thinks people shouldn't be allowed to swap and change through the Month only before it starts.

I didn't think anyone ever did change after the start; that said, the penalties are there for those who want to, and for all intents and purposes it's no different to a late entry. SB often talks about a lot of different forecasts, but to be fair to him, whilst covering every potential base like a chinaman down the casino, so far as I recall, he doesn't actually ever change his punt after the start of the month.

[VillagePlank]

I didn't think anyone ever did change after the start; that said, the penalties are there for those who want to, and for all intents and purposes it's no different to a late entry. SB often talks about a lot of different forecasts, but to be fair to him, whilst covering every potential base like a chinaman down the casino, so far as I recall, he doesn't actually ever change his punt after the start of the month.

Actually, I think it's quite peculiar.

There is an argument that says one can read off GFS (or whatever) what the first 10 days will do with a reasonably degree of accuracy, so, in fact, the first 3rd of a CET forecast is nominally somebody else's anyway. I reckon the closing date should be 10 days before the beginning of the month, but I'm sure that would preclude a huge number of people from partaking in the said fun.

[summer blizzard]

True, but in that case everybody has the same advantage.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

ukmoose, due to a more continental flow appearing on the latest GFS runs I suspect a pattern change for August. Therefore I would like to adjust my SSTA based forecast slightly.

17.5C, or +1.3C above average.

This is +0.5C from the original guess which was 17C/+0.8C.

[shuggee]

Hmmmm... Below average July, then... Hmmmmmmm...

I've thought long and hard about August. Are we going to see the jet over us for evermore? Or will it migrate north or weaken sufficiently to let the hallowed Euro High develop or a sinking of northern blocking into Scandi bring us some hot temps...?

15.9ºC is therefore my punt. Mediocre start, slightly below average through next weekend, then another period of unsettledness, followed by a warmer end leading into September that will be well above average. A glorious Indian Summer into October. However, I've a feeling we're going to see the return of the chilly nights we've be accustomed to not seeing - everything goes in cycles :lol:

[ukmoose]

Latest update on August CET. A few movers and shakers in there; looks like a few doubts are creeping in.

It seems as though it may warm up a bit so I'm going to plump for 17.0 - can't be far wrong if snowmaiden's in there!

15.0C: fishdude

15.0C: Gavin P

15.7C: Stu London

15.9C: summer blizzard

15.9C: shuggee

16.0C: Rollo

16.0C: eddie

16.1C: Mr Maunder

16.2C: beng

16.2C: VillagePlank

16.2C: highcliffe2

16.3C: Sunshine

16.3C: charlton north-downs

16.3C: vizzy2004

16.4C: Optimus Prime

16.5C: The PIT

16.5C: smith25

16.5C: mark bayley

16.6C: Jack Wales

16.7C: Anti-Mild

16.7C: Snowyowl9

16.7C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

16.7C: damianslaw

16.8C: Big Bear

16.8C: Dancc

16.8C: SteveB

16.8C: Glacier Point

16.8C: Magpie

16.9C: Soaring Hawk

16.9C: cheeky monkey

16.9C: Stratos Ferric

17.0C: SNOW-MAN2006

17.0C: snowmaiden

17.0C: ukmoose

17.1C: Cymru

17.2C: summer blizzard

17.3C: Don

17.3C: kold weather

17.5C: AtlanticFlamethrower

17.5C: Mr Data

18.1C: Stephen Prudence

18.2C: West is Best

20.0C: Craig Evans

Moose

[Snowly does it]

It seems as though it may warm up a bit so I'm going to plump for 17.0 - can't be far wrong if snowmaiden's in there!

Moose

[TEITS]

I don't usually post on these threads but im going for the average of 16.2C.

A more settled month is likely but I cannot see any heatwaves either. Also I can see min temps being restricted due to clear skies, low humidity and the fact that the nights are now drawing in!.

[HighPressure]

No one's taken 17.4 Deg so I will have that, feel we have a decent month coming

Edited July 28, 2007 by HighPressure

[The Calm before the Storm]

I'll have 17.2c please.........An unsettled start but warming up nicely throughout the month.....

[Roger J Smith]

Well, July was pretty short of the mark, no doubt about that.

So since I am telepathic but challenged on which month I am foreseeing, this one has to be 19.0, because September can't be, right?

Looks very warm to start, then we'll see how long it can hold on near 18 or 19.

[Duncan McAlister]

Bang on average, 16.2. I can't see anything that would indicate a big anomaly in either direction.

[ghrud]

I'd be surprised if August was better then average so I'm goin' for 16.2 too. B)

[summer blizzard]

All data is in and 15.7C is my final August CET prediction.