will london flood

[johnholmes]

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

really!

[PB22]

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

really!

That sounds like something out of the film "The Day After Tomorrow" to me John!

[justinflavin]

That be HEAVY rain ! If it kinda lurks for more than 2 or 3 hours, those areas already affected will be really screwed for the rest of this week. If you look at the satellite pics, if that low kinda just pivots whilst over the UK, then we might be talking about 2-3 inches for many places.

As for Thames Water, I'd expect the directors at that boardroom table right now are freaking out. For once, they might actually have to deal with a real issue on their hands.

---

Its certainly becoming an interesting situation, one that merits extra attention.

Calrissian: time for more tea ?

so if the thames overflows , flooding water pumping stations, then Reading /WIndsor and possibly even london might have water supply's cut off.

hmm... i'm not sure who supplies basingstoke , but i'm about a half an hour from reading and there are big reservoirs up there - so i might be

supplied by them.

worth going to tesco to stock up on drinking water?

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

really!

in laymans terms - what's happened there? has the jet stream pushed those french storms northwards?

is that what you are saying?

[PersianPaladin]

The latest radar is very dramatic indeed.

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

and is heading North towards the SE / London bound.

If this massive low pressure carries on it's present course, there will be severe problems.

The government have ordered all weirs to be opened to allow the water to flow into the sea as quickly as possible, hence the latest severe warnings from news channels.

Hardly a major shift...simply a forecast northward arcing of the jet-streak over France increasing vorticity over the area. Upper and mid-level winds likely to steer the heavy rain north-eastward to the Thames area and perhaps as West as Oxforshire. Better that the rain falls here than further upstream though. It shouldn't last too long.

Edited July 23, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Calrissian]

oh god, why not just form a reserve from tap water ? Without getting totally o/t, I think if you hear any rumours of the mains supplies going offline, fill up everything you got for containment.

--

So yes, keep a browser tab open for the mighty radar, looks like the south coast should be starting to feel the level'2 rain pretty soon, and then level '3 by around evening time.

One issue is whether the rain will maintain, or even intensify as it moves over the south. Hmm...not long to wait in any case.

*one line that comes to mind 'we're gonna need a bigger boat'

Calrissian: wondering about the Day after Today.

[tinybill]

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

really!

francis wilson on sky just they heavy rain how forming over the channel it very close to kent at the moment and its now starting to rain in suffolk

Edited July 23, 2007 by tinybill

[Turnedoutniceagain]

francis wilson on sky just they heavy rain how forming over the channel it very close to kent at the moment and its now starting to rain in suffolk

No doubt Big Gordon's Helicopter is winging its way back from Gloucestershire, it'll touchdown in London just in time for the 6pm news. He can blame GW again & get Hilary Benn off the hook for the 2nd time today

[PersianPaladin]

No doubt Big Gordon's Helicopter is winging its way back from Gloucestershire, it'll touchdown in London just in time for the 6pm news. He can blame GW again & get Hilary Benn off the hook for the 2nd time today

Tbh.....blaming Hillary Benn is pointless.

What can he do to stop such rainfall? The Env agency have done as much as they could given their funding, the Env Agency asks for money depending on the foreseen threat by them....it was not. We always have to find scapegoats.

[justinflavin]

Tbh.....blaming Hillary Benn is pointless.

What can he do to stop such rainfall? The Env agency have done as much as they could given their funding, the Env Agency asks for money depending on the foreseen threat by them....it was not. We always have to find scapegoats.

they were warned by the Met Office months ago

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/sto...2132232,00.html

it didnt help matters either when flood defense budgets were cut last year

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...03/ndefra03.xml

[johnholmes]

so if the thames overflows , flooding water pumping stations, then Reading /WIndsor and possibly even london might have water supply's cut off.

hmm... i'm not sure who supplies basingstoke , but i'm about a half an hour from reading and there are big reservoirs up there - so i might be

supplied by them.

worth going to tesco to stock up on drinking water?

in laymans terms - what's happened there? has the jet stream pushed those french storms northwards?

is that what you are saying?

I'm not saying anything, I am asking whoever posted it to explain what they meant.

In very simple terms read my latest comment in the forecast blog started by Nick.

Amidst all the talk of jets, etc etc, all that happened was the low, I suspect nothing to do with the jet, stopped moving, hence what happened this morning, again I've tried to explain it in the blog I refer to.

Again, may I ask whoever made the quote about, 'massive jet ....' please explain what you mean to us all?

Edited July 23, 2007 by johnholmes

[PersianPaladin]

they were warned by the Met Office months ago

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/sto...2132232,00.html

it didnt help matters either when flood defense budgets were cut last year

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...03/ndefra03.xml

The METO did not warn months ago about this event.

I agree that budgets in certain departments of environment and rural admin have been cut; but to be honest, funding is prioritised for areas and departments that most need it. It is hard to prioritise when you have no idea which areas need investment for flood prevention (unless you blanket-fund everywhere....which is impractical).

Blame, blame, blame. Sick of it.

Edited July 23, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[SP1986]

The METO did not warn months ago about this event.

I agree that budgets in certain departments of environment and rural admin have been cut; but to be honest, funding is prioritised for areas and departments that most need it. It is hard to prioritise when you have no idea which areas need investment for flood prevention (unless you blanket-fund everywhere....which is impractical).

No but I recall they did suggest that due to the El Nino that rainfall rates would be above average this summer.

[johnholmes]

The latest radar is very dramatic indeed.

There has been a major jet stream shift where a massive low pressure has formed over France

and is heading North towards the SE / London bound.

If this massive low pressure carries on it's present course, there will be severe problems.

The government have ordered all weirs to be opened to allow the water to flow into the sea as quickly as possible, hence the latest severe warnings from news channels.

will you PLEASE explain what you mean by the above??

thanks

John

this is the MASSIVE LP referred to by Yamkin I think

I am damned if I can see a massive low. It looks very much like the original low to me??

we all get carried away in our enthusiasm for the weather at times but come on, can we PLEASE settle down and be a touch more realistic please?

Edited July 23, 2007 by johnholmes

[yamkin]

I'm not saying anything, I am asking whoever posted it to explain what they meant.

In very simple terms read my latest comment in the forecast blog started by Nick.

Amidst all the talk of jets, etc etc, all that happened was the low, I suspect nothing to do with the jet, stopped moving, hence what happened this morning, again I've tried to explain it in the blog I refer to.

Again, may I ask whoever made the quote about, 'massive jet ....' please explain what you mean to us all?

The Jet Stream has moved further South than anticipated allowing the cooler air to meet head on with the warmer air, thus the intensifying low pressure we are now seeing establishing over France which is now very evident spreading North in the direction of the S/SE.

[HighPressure]

Water supplies for London come mainly from the west Hampton, Ashfor (Middx) etc, central London flooding wont be too big a problem. The real problem will be if the Thames floods upstream it could drown the filter beds and thats curtains for a third of London's water supplies.

[Just Before Dawn]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/core/Content/di...te=4&page=0

Great quote "I hope those newts are happy in my living room" !!

A quote from a councillor....not really a credible source in my experience.

[The Eagle]

We all must remember that Sky news has been known for its balanced and sensible reporting of emergencies in the past. They never blow anything out of proportion.

*cough*

[tinybill]

We all must remember that Sky news has been known for its balanced and sensible reporting of emergencies in the past. They never blow anything out of proportion.

*cough*

By Sky News SkyNews - 1 hour 38 minutes agoLondon could be the next area to suffer severe flooding as torrential rain is set to hit the capital

More than an inch of rain is set to drench the city and this rain, combined with the water that has already poured into the Thames, could burst the river's banks in southwest London.

A flood warning is already in force in Staines and Shepperton, and hundreds of homes could be flooded in the next 24 hours.

And worse could come next week with the River Thames at its highest level with high tides.

Met Office forecasters fear sustained rain could hit London from Tuesday next week, bringing more flood misery.

Millions of gallons of water could hit the west of the capital, bringing some of the worst flooding in living memory.

An Environment Agency spokeswoman said: "The Thames will reach its peak next week and more storms and rain could cause major problems."

In the Thames Valley, the agency has issued three severe flood warnings and 22 flood warnings.

And more than 200,000 people in Surrey have already been told to boil tap water after Sutton and East Surrey Water found rain had leaked into a tank of water.

[Rustynailer]

This is the latest French pressure chart I can get hold of http://www.meteociel.com/accueil/pression.php

The sat looks about right too http://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/satell...t1.php?europe=1

The lowest pressure I can see is 995mb, not shocking at all really

Russ

Edited July 23, 2007 by Rustynailer

[Just Before Dawn]

The METO did not warn months ago about this event.

I agree that budgets in certain departments of environment and rural admin have been cut; but to be honest, funding is prioritised for areas and departments that most need it. It is hard to prioritise when you have no idea which areas need investment for flood prevention (unless you blanket-fund everywhere....which is impractical).

Blame, blame, blame. Sick of it.

Benn has been very careful in his wording when talking about EA budget cuts - his exact wording was that 'capital' funding has not been cut - that means existing maintenance budgets have been maintained but the Agencies forward development and strategic planning budget was cut 2 years ago, cut again last year and was due to be cut this year (though I doubt that will happen now). That is exactly the budget stream which identifies future defence strategies and priorities and looks at where future spending should be prioritised. This isn't third hand BTW, it came from a senior flood defence manager in the Agency. It's difficult to identify priorities when your budget for this work is cut. This isn't about blame, it's about allowing the Agency to due its statutory duty.

I noticed in Benn's comments to the house that this money is now being returned to the Agency, which is good news and should be welcomed, but is probably bad news for other DEFRA departments.

[justinflavin]

Water supplies for London come mainly from the west Hampton, Ashfor (Middx) etc, central London flooding wont be too big a problem. The real problem will be if the Thames floods upstream it could drown the filter beds and thats curtains for a third of London's water supplies.

there are also big reservoirs near Reading too, which you can see on google maps:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&...p;z=12&om=1

[Paul]

The Jet Stream has moved further South than anticipated allowing the cooler air to meet head on with the warmer air, thus the intensifying low pressure we are now seeing establishing over France which is now very evident spreading North in the direction of the S/SE.

That's simply untrue I'm afraid, the rain occuring was forecast the low pressure isn't moving as fast as expected originally but aside from that all is as it was forecast.

[johnholmes]

Benn has been very careful in his wording when talking about EA budget cuts - his exact wording was that 'capital' funding has not been cut - that means existing maintenance budgets have been maintained but the Agencies forward development and strategic planning budget was cut 2 years ago, cut again last year and was due to be cut this year (though I doubt that will happen now). That is exactly the budget stream which identifies future defence strategies and priorities and looks at where future spending should be prioritised. This isn't third hand BTW, it came from a senior flood defence manager in the Agency. It's difficult to identify priorities when your budget for this work is cut. This isn't about blame, it's about allowing the Agency to due its statutory duty.

I noticed in Benn's comments to the house that this money is now being returned to the Agency, which is good news and should be welcomed, but is probably bad news for other DEFRA departments.

a nice comment there mate.

I fear we are in the throes of media hype to the extreme.

It was bad enough when it was just s Yorks(and I am not from Yorkshire!), its got pretty ridiculous over the past 48 hours, and heaven help us IF London and its southern suburbs is affected anything like as badly as Pershore or Worcester, Gloucester etc.

I do hope common sense will prevail on this forum!

Edited July 23, 2007 by johnholmes

[ribster]

By Sky News SkyNews - 1 hour 38 minutes agoLondon could be the next area to suffer severe flooding as torrential rain is set to hit the capital

More than an inch of rain is set to drench the city and this rain, combined with the water that has already poured into the Thames, could burst the river's banks in southwest London.

A flood warning is already in force in Staines and Shepperton, and hundreds of homes could be flooded in the next 24 hours.

And worse could come next week with the River Thames at its highest level with high tides.

Met Office forecasters fear sustained rain could hit London from Tuesday next week, bringing more flood misery.

Millions of gallons of water could hit the west of the capital, bringing some of the worst flooding in living memory.

An Environment Agency spokeswoman said: "The Thames will reach its peak next week and more storms and rain could cause major problems."

In the Thames Valley, the agency has issued three severe flood warnings and 22 flood warnings.

And more than 200,000 people in Surrey have already been told to boil tap water after Sutton and East Surrey Water found rain had leaked into a tank of water.

Tiny bill, while I appreciate that there is a real threat of flooding, there are an awful lot of media 'coulds' in that excerpt.

[yamkin]

That's simply untrue I'm afraid, the rain occuring was forecast the low pressure isn't moving as fast as expected originally but aside from that all is as it was forecast.

I see your point and also John's, but the intensity seems to be a lot deeper than first calculated.