Met Office Winter Forecast

[summer blizzard]

My summary of there forecast...

CET between 4.6C and 6.3C inclusive...

Rainfall between 80% and 120% inclusive....

Vaige, but lets hope the updates give greater detail.

[damianslaw]

I do anticipate the METO seasonal forecasts with some relish. The Met is the only body that I take of notice of in terms of long range forecasts.

However, this summer has taught me to treat with great caution very early seasonal forecasts, i.e. thinking back to the initial summer forecast they posted in April.

It isn't until November that I will really treat their updated winter forecast with any real respect. I think as others have said at this stage the signals are very unclear and in such circumstances their stab is preety much what is to be expected.

[SP1986]

Ive heard alot of "well its obvious that this winter is going to be colder than last so therefore the METO arent committing" posts - well what if its not colder?, what if its warmer than last winter (not exactly impossible)? Egg on the METO's faces and you lot too! I think we should leave them to it, and make our own minds up, or just lets see what happens. Afterall the weather's more fun when you dont know whats going to happen!

[VillagePlank]

Well, it looks to me that (ignoring their blurb along side the histogram) that the winter temperature is forecast to be sub 4.3C with 55% certainty.

[snowking]

Im afraid that chart should be treated more as a bar graph than a histogram

What it suggests is that the most likely event is that the CET will finish above 43%, you cannot combine the results like that, as in that case you could combine the two on the right and say that its a 75% chance of being above 3.4c

Kind Regards

Kris

[Ian_IWC]

I see the UKMET again is forecasting for a milder winter. Normally i would agree, but this year see chances of a much colder winter than they seem to let on.

Surface Sea Temps have never really rose this year around the UK, and Arctic circle after a cooler summer than previous years. NAO index showing signs of going negivate this winter.

During the first weeks of Autumn, frosts have been noticable, over parts of Northern England and thoughout the spine of the UK, where in recent years there has been a lack of Autunm frosts.

This all helps to lower the Sea Temps even more, and helps change the weather patterns to a more cooler theme.

However during next week, Temps appaer to raise to just above average during the day, and losing some night time frosts.

A brief look and the Climate Forecast and has started to inicate a cooler theme this year.

My Outlook:

More setteld than last year (not so windy) and more frosts during November and December. I think the chances of some cold and very cold weather late winter has increased, and will go for, perhaps a 1991 flavor.

The Metoffice forecasts a drier winter than last. This is not too hard to forecast, given the amount of rain we had last year. (i think even my 5 year son could forecast that). I will go for an drier start to the winter, with High pressure domitaing, and a wetter than average end, with a large high pressure block.

Your thoughts?

[VillagePlank]

What it suggests is that the most likely event is that the CET will finish above 43%, you cannot combine the results like that, as in that case you could combine the two on the right and say that its a 75% chance of being above 3.4c

Yes, quite true and should have put a ' ' next to it.

[johnholmes]

Just got round to reading this and I wonder what they mean by, and I quote,

'noticeably colder than last year' ?

0.5C, 1.0C?

its unlikely to be any lower as that would then disagree with their evaluation of the probabilities of mild/cold/average.

here, last year was 6.6C the highest since the 7.0C in 1997/1998.

2005/2006 was 4.8C.

Lovely playing around with figures and hypothesizing on words isn't it?

Edited October 5, 2007 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just got round to reading this and I wonder what they mean by, and I quote,

'noticeably colder than last year' ?

0.5C, 1.0C?

its unlikely to be any lower as that would then disagree with their evaluation of the probabilities of mild/cold/average.

here, last year was 6.6C the highest since the 7.0C in 1997/1998.

2005/2006 was 4.8C.

Lovely playing around with figures and hypothesizing on words isn't it?

They would have been better in saying noticeably less mild than last year. That way it could still be a mild winter....which is what they are angling at IMO with some shortlived, transient, blink and you'll miss, extremely marginal cold incursions :lol:

Oh there I go again spoiling a very initially sensible post.

BFTP