carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

it is interesting Stratos, im guessing you are using the CT chart that shows this.. This positive anomoly is very much being assisted by the ice in Antarctica. I dont know if you have read the thread on this there appears to be mixed views as to whether the CT chart is accurate or not.. In fact we have a view of either a record amount of sea ice or a record low value of sea ice.... be interested to get your thoughts on this one..

im 75% convinced that there is more sea ice down there but aware of the flawes of using the one source of info....CT

cheers

sorry mods i know this jumps from pole to pole!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

it is interesting Stratos, im guessing you are using the CT chart that shows this.. This positive anomoly is very much being assisted by the ice in Antarctica. I dont know if you have read the thread on this there appears to be mixed views as to whether the CT chart is accurate or not.. In fact we have a view of either a record amount of sea ice or a record low value of sea ice.... be interested to get your thoughts on this one..

im 75% convinced that there is more sea ice down there but aware of the flawes of using the one source of info....CT

cheers

sorry mods i know this jumps from pole to pole!

Don't use CT. I use CT only for the anomaly chart.

Here

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html

- archive available

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml

[Stratos Ferric]

it is interesting Stratos, im guessing you are using the CT chart that shows this.. This positive anomoly is very much being assisted by the ice in Antarctica. I dont know if you have read the thread on this there appears to be mixed views as to whether the CT chart is accurate or not.. In fact we have a view of either a record amount of sea ice or a record low value of sea ice.... be interested to get your thoughts on this one..

im 75% convinced that there is more sea ice down there but aware of the flawes of using the one source of info....CT

cheers

sorry mods i know this jumps from pole to pole!

I do use CT. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt re data robustness given that they have removed the warniungs that they had pasted up there in December.

Quite right re use of a single source, it is a hazard.

Don't use CT. I use CT only for the anomaly chart.

Here

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html

- archive available

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml

AFF, it follows, ipso facto, that if the CT baseline is wrong then their anomaly must be wrong also since this is merely a subtractive process. We either trust CT or we do not. Trustying part of their data, when the whole is connected, isn't rational.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

AFF, it follows, ipso facto, that if the CT baseline is wrong then their anomaly must be wrong also since this is merely a subtractive process. We either trust CT or we do not. Trustying part of their data, when the whole is connected, isn't rational.

It's a bit of fun. The baseline to which current ice normality is compared always will be an arbitrary one as it depends on what years are chosen to be averaged to create it.

As the archive members increase we can ourselves compare ice totals year on year, at least to the extent ice is accurately recorded now and was accurately recorded before satellite. Prior to satellite ice totals were slightly exaggerated because things were included as ice that now is not - do the CT charts take account of that?

I'm satisfied that in SH this year there is more ice than last year, and more than in previous years on the archive record. NH is about the same as last year. The anomaly charts are fun to quote, though.

[oldsnowywizard]

shame there isnt another site that has a similar representation chart.....

CTs downfall i guess is that it keeps amending that charts.

[Gray-Wolf]

Haven't checked back on this thread that much. The usual mixture of "oh, yes it, oh no it isn't" is evident.

Anyway, here's a Green website proclaiming: Arctic Sea Ice Re-Freezing at Record Pace

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental...ea-ice-47121205

So, i find it rather crass when reading as a guest, this:

I know where the complain button is! Never before have i felt so strongly in using it - do we have to keep reading this EVERYWHERE!!?

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/content_contenu...ANIM-BE2007.gif

And if you can run this backwards you'll see a remarkable recovery!!! Shame this is mid-winter ablation!

Can we all just wise up to what is really happening up there? There is a vast region of ice that is mere skin and ,as the animation from late december shows, things aint going too well (for the 'recovery marchants' out there).

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp....92&Lang=eng

above is the article from which the animation is gleaned (courtesy of C.Knight down on the environment thread).

So, record recovery?

[Gray-Wolf]

Strange how the C.T. ice cover mask doesn't show any of the weaknesses/thinning.......funny that eh? (only if you're me and seeming the same 'over-reporting' of ice extent dawn sarf.......maybe folk will give more credence to my observations and pay less heed to C.T.'s anomalous student site...............................then again...............)

[oldsnowywizard]

GW start posting threads without mocking those who see things slightly differently. This thread is not for sarky comments!!

everyone is aware that sea ice thickness is a problem, the majority of the artic ice is currently thick skinned at 30 -200cm s deep... as time progresses and assuming warming continues and melt rates increase then of course we will sea the multiyear ice pack get smaller and smaller...what is clear is that in winter the sea ice will recover to some extent... what is not clear is how the continued melting of sea ice will effect global sea temperatures, currents, airmasses etc...

[Gray-Wolf]

OSW.

Try not and become so heated with the messenger eh?

Tell me , from your knowledge of observation in either pole, when we last had a 7 year period like the last one, when we last lost such humongous chunks of ice shelf ,glacier snout ,ice sheet and multiyear ice. Once you've done that then tell me how that all panned out.

This is no game and I can only guess that your displaced grumpyness is based within your own fears (and who wouldn't be afraid who has slight knowledge of how quickly this element of climate change will impact us?). I think we all at least suspect where this is all headed.

When my mum was dying one of the male nurses clued me up (aside from all my family so as not to 'distress them') on how long she had and just how terminal things were. I dispised him for it but he did it in good faith and with good heart. When she had passed I was glad I'd had the time to prepare (unlike the rest of my family).

Same deal.

[jethro]

On a lighter note check out this site, lovely, early 20th century black and white pics taken in the Arctic

http://www.schicklerart.com/auto_exh/DDeb_0001?page=1

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks J.! The guys who hunt with the golden Eagles used to capture/lure a new one in every couple of years (and release their old 'helper'). They have a strong Shamanic culture within these people and they fully believe that they 'call down the Eagles' who wish to join forces with them. The birds are not trained to hunt/return but stay with their man until he feels they need to part at which time the Eagle finds a replacement and fetches it to the man.

Such a shame such things are being lost/are lost to us as they would be a fine area of study........Dr Doolittle ,Dr Doolittle! who needs him?

Edited January 22, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Ooo falconry, now there's something I could get into big time, first one to stick their hand up when volunteers are called for at displays. I was brought a baby Buzzard that had been found in a car park a few years back, sooooo tempted to raise and keep it myself but knew I had neither time nor space, passed it onto the RSPB instead.

Off topic - sorry mods.

Back on topic, perhaps you should start a new thread about the Innuit and the changing Arctic, after all measuring the changes up there is about more than just how much ice is lost/left.

[oldsnowywizard]

GW.. Once again you seem to turn things round to your defence, without even reading posts properly! you almost make it sound like i am oblivious to what is actually happening?

the last 7 years have been bad. has it happened before, ever? probably? who knows records dont go back that far.. like 2 billion years ago to the present day..

am i concerned.. absolutely.. we all should be... the poles have a major influence on our weather and the temperature of the Earth...

i believe summer ice melt will struggle to be any higher than last years record loss... (lots of sites including CT Posted record loss) what that will do?

siberian perma frost melt = methane released into the atmosphere.. more energy in the Arctic ocean = more storms? more preciptation? more waves? more ice melt... the list continues

i am still seaching for some kind of hint that there can be some kind of feedback to hope the situation isnt as bad as it probably is.. true .. but then im sure everyone has this hope.. hence the interest in the thread.. the recovery from the sea ice loss in the summer to the current conditions is i guess a good thing and IMO remarkable - is it the hint we are looking for? pass?

moving back on topic -

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

current conditions are better than last year at the moment, although im sure thats likely to swap and change!

sea ice thickness widely reported to be 30-200cms thick, although as GW has pointed out there is a lot less multiyear sea ice left.

temps in the area? some warmer anomolies over Alaska and of course Barents...but other areas the temps are either average or below average..

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

areas doing better than normal... baffin, chuckchi (not bad considering it was ice free up until a month ago!) Beaufort and Bearing sea.

areas doing worse.. barents, st lawrence, Kara, sea of ochotsk

SSTs - still much warmer around barents...

just a thought - less sea ice in summer = open water = potential areas where waves can form.. i wonder if we would see more mixing of the water from lower levels? wonder what impact that would have ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly I already think that the foetal Arctic currents are setting up with a flow in through bearing, a circulatory Arctic ocean ,and an exit between Greenland and Sweden (into our neck of the woods......last remaining multiyear chunks off Northern Ireland anyone???)

The effects that any stirring up of bottom and top waters will be easily over-ridden by these thermal exchanges, from equator to pole, that the new 'currents' will bring.

For the next few years , as the last major regions of Multiyear ablate, the positioning of the ablating chunks will have a major regional effect on whichever coast the end up beached upon........Better not be our neck of the woods as I value my sunshine and warmth too much!

[jethro]

Does all this mean that the predictions for large influxes of fresh water cutting off the Gulf Stream are coming true then? Surely if that happened then the heat transfer would be stopped in it's tracks and the ice would recover?

Actually, ignore that last post, this is Carinthian's thread, perhaps we could discuss this over in the environment section?

Edited January 22, 2008 by jethro

[Stratos Ferric]

...the recovery from the sea ice loss in the summer to the current conditions is i guess a good thing and IMO remarkable - is it the hint we are looking for? pass?

Not sure it's remarkable OSW. With the sun below the horizon and largely clear skies you'd expect a refreeze. However, a surface skin is not the same as deep multiyear pack ice. The true test of the refreeze will not come for a few months yet, and we're a long way from not having winter ice.

Does all this mean that the predictions for large influxes of fresh water cutting off the Gulf Stream are coming true then? Surely if that happened then the heat transfer would be stopped in it's tracks and the ice would recover?

Actually, ignore that last post, this is Carinthian's thread, perhaps we could discuss this over in the environment section?

Not that I've seen I'm afraid.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

2008

2007

Despite Europe's mild winter, NH snow area has consistently remained up on last year, the real winner being Asia.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

If you're quick (it's midday now), there's some daylight in Svalbard !!

[cheeky_monkey]

2008

2007

Despite Europe's mild winter, NH snow area has consistently remained up on last year, the real winner being Asia.

definetly a lot more ice in north america..west greenland..newfoundland and st.lawrence

[oldsnowywizard]

further to the above...

quite a lot of snow! shame not around us but anyway...

northern hemisphere

the prize though has to go Baffin!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.4.html

[Optimus Prime]

The Newfoundland area has seen an exceptional amount of ice, more especially compared to last year

[Gray-Wolf]

It will be interesting to see, over the next couple of months, whether the ice ablates at the speeds the southern pack has over their summer.

The key to the survival of the multiyear is good retention of contiguous ice surrounding it. Personally i am very concerned about this years melt as it would appear that much of the pack is but a thin skin and not the multimetre thickness of past years.

Ho Hum.

[reef]

Its looking like almost every sector of the Arctic is now average or marginally above except the Greenland Sea to our north and Barents Sea to our north-east. Together these make up the entire negative anomoly of 0.5 million sq km below average. Nevertheless, the ice levels according to cryosphere are now on par with last year's peak. This could increase further later this week as that massive cold pool spills into Barents and Scandinavia. Who knows, we may actually make it to average for once! A remarkable recovery after last year's summer blitz, but as many have wondered, will this new ice hold or melt completely exposing more multiyear ice to melting?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Barents:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html

Greenland Sea:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

[Optimus Prime]

I have very little faith that the ice will last any better then even last year. I reckon another near record breaking low ice extent this summer is likely. Perhaps not as bad as 2007 due to some cooling taking place.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

From our remote sensing groups, we have reports of significant negative anomalies in both the RSS and UAH global satellite data for the lower troposphere. The there’s NOAA’s announcement that January 2008, was below 20th century averages, plus news that Arctic sea ice has quickly recovered from the record low extent of Summer 2007. Finally, there’s the massive La Nina said to be the driver of all this but may be a harbinger of a more permanent phase shift according to veteran forecaster Joe laminate floori.

Now to add to this, we have images and reports from NOAA and Rutgers University of large anomalies of snow cover extent for the northern hemisphere in January 2008.