carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[summer blizzard]

Its looking like almost every sector of the Arctic is now average or marginally above except the Greenland Sea to our north and Barents Sea to our north-east. Together these make up the entire negative anomoly of 0.5 million sq km below average. Nevertheless, the ice levels according to cryosphere are now on par with last year's peak. This could increase further later this week as that massive cold pool spills into Barents and Scandinavia. Who knows, we may actually make it to average for once! A remarkable recovery after last year's summer blitz, but as many have wondered, will this new ice hold or melt completely exposing more multiyear ice to melting?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Barents:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html

Greenland Sea:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

It's to be expected really considering that water only needs to be -2C and temperatures all winter are around -20C.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is interesting. We have entered the perturbation cycle back in Feb 2007 with la Nina to become the dominant player as to El Nino. Joe Laminate agrees. The ice recovery and massive snowcover is great despite the fears of cold poling going to be reduced...in fact it has increased.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

''Climatologist: Sea Ice to keep shrinking ''Tue Feb 12, 6:06 PM ET

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Arctic sea ice next summer may shrink below the record low last year, according to a University of Washington climatologist. Ignatius Rigor spoke Monday at the Alaska Forum on the Environment and said global warming combined with natural cyclical changes likely will continue to push ice into the North Atlantic Ocean. if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['BVTbV9G_Ru0-']='&U=13chbosrt%2fN%3dBVTbV9G_Ru0-%2fC%3d499324.12087721.12512534.10948163%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d4324550';

The last remnants of thick, old sea ice are dispersing and the unusual weather cycles that contributed to sea ice loss last year are continuing, he said.

"The buoys are streaming out," Rigor said, referring to the markers used to monitor the flushing of ice into the North Atlantic.

A similar pattern preceded sea ice loss last summer was not expected to continue so strongly.

Scientists are watching Arctic sea ice closely, trying to sort out the effects of global warming and natural cyclical changes.

Formal projections of sea ice loss will be made for another month or so but all indications are that ice loss will equal or exceed last year's "unless the winds turn around," Rigor said.

New ice now covering the polar seas is not like older, thicker sea ice that once covered the region in winter, Rigor said. In 1989, 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic was at least 10 years old, he said. Today, only about 3 percent of the ice is that old.

New ice melts more quickly, and then open water absorbs more sunlight, warming the seas and making the fall freeze-up come even later, he said.

"Have we passed the tipping point?" he said. "It's hard to see how the system may come back."

The prospect of a mostly ice-free Arctic could mean a boom in shipping through the Bering Strait, several speakers said, but is bad news for polar bears and other animals.

Polar bears prefer ice over the shallow continental shelf north of Alaska because it supports a rich food chain, said Steve Amstrup, a leading polar bear biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. With melting last summer, some Alaska bears were on ice as much as 600 miles north of Barrow, far from their preferred habitat, Amstrup said.

Amstrup was lead federal biologist in studies released last year depicting the Alaska bear as likely to disappear by 2050 because of global warming. A decision by the Department of the Interior on whether to list the polar bear as "threatened" under the Endangered Species Act was due in January but has been postponed.

The state of Alaska, among others, opposes the listing, arguing the forecasts of declining sea ice are too speculative.

Scientists Monday said that the forecasts were, if anything, too cautious. None foresaw the shrinkage of 2007.

"Five of the 10 studies we used projected more sea ice at mid-century than we had this summer," Amstrup said.

The shrinkage is related to higher temperatures, scientists said, but also to shifts in a weather pattern known as the Arctic oscillation. When the Arctic oscillation is in a "high" cycle, as it has been recently, more ice is pushed past Greenland into the North Atlantic, Rigor said.

Climate models have linked a higher Arctic oscillation to increases in greenhouse gases, but that relationship is the subject of much study, Rigor said.

"All these changes are very consistent with a climate system trying to cool itself off from greenhouse gases," Rigor said.

The above is off the wires today.

There is no 'recovery' underway in the polar regions. Snow cover may be up, ice coverage may be average the measure is how well it survives over summer. None of the 'new snow' will survive. None of the 'new ice' will survive. More multiyear ice will fail and melt. The chaps from the above article share my view that we will again see frightening changes in the percentage of remaining multiyear ice over the melt season and NO recovery.

[The PIT]

Being of more positive nature than we're doomed doomed I tell ya I'm going to say lets see what happens.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The above is off the wires today.

There is no 'recovery' underway in the polar regions. Snow cover may be up, ice coverage may be average the measure is how well it survives over summer. None of the 'new snow' will survive. None of the 'new ice' will survive. More multiyear ice will fail and melt.

The only confirmatio here GW is that Snowcover is up...massively so on last year too. Your other statements are in the future so at best 'may' happen but they may not.

BFTP

[SMU]

The above is off the wires today.

There is no 'recovery' underway in the polar regions. Snow cover may be up, ice coverage may be average the measure is how well it survives over summer. None of the 'new snow' will survive. None of the 'new ice' will survive. More multiyear ice will fail and melt.

The only confirmatio here GW is that Snowcover is up...massively so on last year too. Your other statements are in the future so at best 'may' happen but they may not.

BFTP

Indeed -- Looking from above things may seem on course for a transition back to normality, however as Fred mentions once the snow goes over the next 10 weeks we will left with the margins of new ice V multiyear ice--

I would hazard a guess that when we get to peak melt season the gradient of the graph of melt will be steeper than usual, with I guess eventually another chunk of the Multiyear thinning & becoming open water-

Summer in the artic this year will be more blue than white-

S

[Stratos Ferric]

My instinct is very much that we are likely to have more aggressive melt this year, though year on year the loss will be far less than last year. However, this is just instinct, albeit extrapolated from some known drivers. The most important of all though, polar warmth, is still unknown. Steve M and BFTP are right to hang fire, for all that I suspect any caution will turn out to be misplaced.

[BrickFielder]

It seems questionable to me that we should see the same scale of melting in the arctic as last year . Firstly the snow and ice extent is greater this year which will moderate temperatures untill the snow is melted. This means northern hemisphere melting is likely to start a little later this year. Equally we have la nina conditions which do not promote an early break down of the stratospheric vortex and so the artic oscillation is likely to remain positive keeping cool air bottled up in the arctic for part of the spring. Some of the destruction of multi year ice is due to low level winds being anticyclonic across the arctic. La nina imposses a different wind pattern across the arctic and there has been very little high pressue across the arctic this winter.

Once we get into summer again then we should see a fast melt ,although my hunch is the minimum may not be quite as low as last year. This is not to say we will not have alarmingly low sea ice extents and that we are not on the way to an ice clear summer arctic. It is just each year varies a little from the previous and there are some indicators to suggest the arctic may remain cool through the spring. How much ice thickness has built up over the winter will be critical (depends on temperatures and snow amounts).

[len]

''Climatologist: Sea Ice to keep shrinking ''Tue Feb 12, 6:06 PM ET ...........

New ice now covering the polar seas is not like older, thicker sea ice that once covered the region in winter, Rigor said. In 1989, 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic was at least 10 years old, he said. Today, only about 3 percent of the ice is that old.

New ice melts more quickly, and then open water absorbs more sunlight, warming the seas and making the fall freeze-up come even later, he said.

"Have we passed the tipping point?" he said. "It's hard to see how the system may come back."...................

A very telling post Graywolf "In 1989, 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic was at least 10 years old, he said. Today, only about 3 percent of the ice is that old." is the most devastating statistic.

I think far too many people are misled by area anomalies, especially where ice is concerned. And people talk about non-existent seasonal recoveries. e.g. Once the Barents shows zero ice in Summer it appears to reach its "norm,". But it can't show less than zero (its summer norm). The real picture is the SST has continued to soar. The same is true of those 100% winter icebound areas. They appear to reach their "norm" (100%) in winter because they can't ever be more than 100%, but the volume/thickness/mass of ice is drastically reduced. Perhaps these area charts deceive as much as inform, especially to those taking a cursory look to see what they want to find.

Len

Len

[BrickFielder]

Perhaps these area charts deceive as much as inform, especially to those taking a cursory look to see what they want to find.

Yes they can deceive in more ways than you think which is why carinthians reports from scientists (especially his Danish friends) who are visiting the arctic area are always interesting. Quite often extent and thicknesses reports from the scientist on the spot are not quite the same as the charts show and their knowledge of ice conditions over the years can sometimes paint a different view. Generally it seems there are some areas where the thickness and extent is quite robust and it may surprise that in a few areas (especially the tops of the greenland glaciers, but also in some sea areas around the north of greenland) ice may be thickening. Despite these areas of thickening the general trend is for ice mass loss because the losses are greater then the few increasing areas. I also have a little distrust in the anomaly charts based on the fact that early measurements of ice extent are known to have included ice slush where todays do not. Off course last summers melt was extraordinary and quite clearly broke all records regardless of whether some of the anomaly charts are a little questionable.

[reef]

Last year was such a large departure from the general trend over the years that if this year even comes close it could be a sign that we have passed the tipping point.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

As has been said by several posters, the most alarming part about last year was the loss of large amounts of multi-year ice. Even if the Arctic were to become ice-free in summer, in the darkness of winter the ice coverage would almost always recover. The problem is that thin first year ice seldom lasts until the following year.

My guess (or rather hope) would be that as we're in a La Nina (which generally causes a slight cooling globally) that ice reduction would be back on trend next year:

Theres no question things have changed though, gone are the days of 14+ million sq km winters and summers holding onto 5+ million sq km of ice. Its only a matter of time before we get a completely ice free summer up there. The big mystery though, is what effects it will have on weather patterns (and ocean currents) globally when it happens?

[picog]

Are there any records of actual sea temperatures for the Arctic and other oceans and seas that normally have ice either permanently or temporarily during the year?

If so, how have these changed over the years?

[ghrud]

My guess (or rather hope) would be that as we're in a La Nina (which generally causes a slight cooling globally) that ice reduction would be back on trend next year:

When was the last major La Nina event? What do the ice records show for that period? May give us some idea what to expect.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Are there any records of actual sea temperatures for the Arctic and other oceans and seas that normally have ice either permanently or temporarily during the year?

If so, how have these changed over the years?

Try emailing this lot, they're usually very helpful.

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

Click on Current View, plenty of daylight now !!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The last major La Nina was in 1999-2000, when Arctic ice extent remained fairly consistent over those two years. There wasn't anywhere near as extreme a reduction around then as now though.

One possible straw to clutch would be the 1995/96 season- ice extent declined markedly during summer and autumn 1995, but recovered pretty well during winter 1995/96, and the following summer had notably high ice retention- the next five years had only a very slight downward trend in ice extent. But again, the 1995 melt was nothing like as extreme as 2007's.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its cold up there

here

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

Its cold up there

here

BFTP

Or rather ice is doing rather well. In fact that interior has always done rather well in recent years. It's nothing unusual.

[SMU]

Or rather ice is doing rather well. In fact that interior has always done rather well in recent years. It's nothing unusual.

Typical +VE AO Scenario-- All the cold bottled up over Western Greenland & Hudsons-

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Typical +VE AO Scenario-- All the cold bottled up over Western Greenland & Hudsons-

S

After recod ice minima? Not typical! Cold not bottled up this year either...widespread cold outbreak even in mainly +AO winter.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

After recod ice minima? Not typical! Cold not bottled up this year either...widespread cold outbreak even in mainly +AO winter.

BFTP

December and January both saw AO values of +0.8, so more of a neutral winter than insanely positive.

[osmposm]

Baltic ice levels are exceptionally low at the moment - way below normal, and noticeably lower than even last year's very low coverage.

See http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne

[SMU]

After recod ice minima? Not typical! Cold not bottled up this year either...widespread cold outbreak even in mainly +AO winter.

BFTP

Fred-- You cant get widespread cold in +VE AO- Im afraid your wrong-

Its been an ABOVE Average hemispheric Winter ( Well +0.86C for Dec & -0.17C Jan land to be pedantic)

Febuary will go the same way as Dec -

Ice coverage is better, but its new ice NOT multi year-- Your kidding yourself If you think anything is good-

Edited February 22, 2008 by Steve Murr

[SteveB]

I noticed over the last week or so, that Ice has formed between Iceland & Greenland,and is actually linking the the two.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.1.jpg

Is this normal?.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred-- You cant get widespread cold in +VE AO- Im afraid your wrong-

Its been an ABOVE Average hemispheric Winter ( Well +0.86C for Dec & -0.17C Jan land to be pedantic)

Febuary will go the same way as Dec -

Ice coverage is better, but its new ice NOT multi year-- Your kidding yourself If you think anything is good-

Steve

Let's see how Feb pans out but I think that it'll head the way of Jan which was below the 20th century average and 60 Jans had been warmer so I think that is pretty impressive in this +ve AO winter. The cold has been widespread especially considering the +AO, so rarely Ill disagree with you on this. The cold has spilled way south around the NH, just not over here. I obviously know its new ice Steve as most of it melted last summer!!!!

Looking at the comments on this thread can folk read the posts properly before making comments. SB I haven't mentioned insane +ve AO I said a 'mainly' +ve AO, which it has been. OP that is the sea ice NOT the interior and it is ABOVE typical.....thank you

Fred

Edited February 22, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

Our 'beloved' C.T. seems to hint at the end of winter oop north. We are nearing 12/12 in sunlight hours so I suppose we won't have long to wait to see how this years ice fares over the warmer month.

The earthquake off Svalbard yesterday may well have aided in the fragmentation of the ice to the north of the archipelago already and with the current trend for ice flow into the atlantic this may mean an early start of ablation for the region.

All those spouting 'recovery' up there may wish to watch the next 3 months closely.