carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[Duncan McAlister]

Gone! ALL gone! We're doomed I tells ya

[Gray-Wolf]

Gone! ALL gone! We're doomed I tells ya

and such a reputable site an' all..........................

[J10]

I think that chart would confirm AGW for all time to any doubters, out there,

On a slightly more serious point, when they not get rid of those silly spikes in those charts, it does look not that professional.

[oldsnowywizard]

some very cold temps now being recorded.. -48 in khatanga Russia, and -46 in Alaska. with the polar vortex forecast to be slap bang over Greenland, there looks to be some very cold temps here. Carinth do you know what the record low is for this time of year?

[carinthian]

some very cold temps now being recorded.. -48 in khatanga Russia, and -46 in Alaska. with the polar vortex forecast to be slap bang over Greenland, there looks to be some very cold temps here. Carinth do you know what the record low is for this time of year?

Hi ,

The extreme north of Greenland recored -48.9C on 22nd December 1990. This is the recorded record low for a sea level temperature in Greenland. That cold spell in the far north of Russia is becoming interesting.

C

[The PIT]

Looking at Cryosphere latest graphs there's no ice at all at the North pole. When did it melt and why wasn't it reported. I think they took the request taking of the spikes too seriously or they've got big data problems.

[carinthian]

Looking at Cryosphere latest graphs there's no ice at all at the North pole. When did it melt and why wasn't it reported. :wacko: :wacko: I think they took the request taking of the spikes too seriously or they've got big data problems.

This is Al Gores doing.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

finally looks like we have Ct back up and running...

not entirely sure if we can trust the charts just yet..

northern hemisphere...

[oldsnowywizard]

some potentially very cold temperatures forecast for parts of Siberia next week, temps could be lower than -50 in places. be interesting to see what happens.. at the moment there are a few spots in Russia at -42, Khatanga being one. see the above for the latest chart from CT, i think we can expect a re-chart at some point. they had values for January over 2 weeks ago, so there cant be accurate coverage.

many areas of the arctic now constantly below -20, and the majority of the ice is now between 30 and 200 cms thick according to the Russian site. www.aari.nw.ru

Baffin looks to be doing well this year, our neck of the woods unfortunately not.. warm sstas having an impact i think..

if Carinth is about maybe he could post? its been a while mate...

[oldsnowywizard]

temps of -48 reported in parts of Canada.. not bad at all! widespread -40s in siberia as well.. our neck of the woods ie barents is really mild, so not a great deal of sea ice.. bit of a shame as other areas seem to be doing much better.. i guess there is always going to be a warmer side to the artic..

[oldsnowywizard]

PV sets up camp over the artic ice mass this week, likely to bring temps down, widespread -30s and some ares of -40.. should help make the ice slightly thicker. Also important to note that there are finally widespread average temps in the arctic.. certainly havent seen these in a while..

Sec ice growth is limited past the ice pack to our north due to much warmer SSTs not good at all.

[noggin]

Also important to note that there are finally widespread average temps in the arctic.. certainly havent seen these in a while..

osw...when you say "in a while"....do you mean weeks, months or years? Tis a genuine question as I am trying to keep a rough record of temperatures from around the world at the moment.

[oldsnowywizard]

good question. i have been keeping an eye on anomoly temps in the artic since early Oct and there certainly havent been any average temps as widespread as is currently the case.. past that then im afraid i dont know.

[oldsnowywizard]

finally CT is back up to scratch.. take the below overview with a potenital bit of salt as im not sure if this latest data is acurate or not..

northern hemisphere - roughly the same level as last year.. not bad considering the making up the ice has had to do this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

artic basin - mean value and same as last year

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.1.html

bearing sea - close to mean, down on lats year, but spikes wildy usually..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.2.html

Baffin - doing very well..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.4.html

Greenland - same as last year, slightly down on the mean slightly

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

Barents - same as last year and way down on the mean

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html

Kara - down on last year and down on the mean..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.7.html

laptev - equal to the mean and last years value

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.8.html

Siberian - finally up to the mean and last years level

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.9.html

chuckchi - finally up to the mean and up to the mean, slightly down on last year

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.10.html

beaufort - equal to the mean and last year

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.11.html

canadian - equal to the mean and last year

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.12.html

hudson - above last year and the mean level!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

other news.. well as stated above the PV looks to settle over the Arctic for the next week or so, some nice cold temps in most of the area..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1803.gif

today some areas of positive and negative temp anomolies..

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

sea ice thickness.. from the 27th of DEc so quite old.. but shows the vast majority of sea ice 30 -200 cms thick..

http://www.aari.nw.ru/clgmi/sea_charts/nor...007/n071224.gif

overall assessment...

some areas doing very well.. hudson and Baffin, and only really 1 are really down on the mean badly which is Barents, which in actual fact is doing just as badly as last year.

so NOT BAD!

[Rob]

and i though it were cold here!

[BrickFielder]

Expect things to change over the next five days as high pressure builds in the gulf of alaska which will send warm air into the artic while cold air spills out across Japan and the US. This will speed up the Pacific jet stream and may eventually break the current pattern for a period. This is likely to stop ice building in its tracks, but keep an eye on that very cold air in northern russia as sometime it will really begin to seep westwards.

NSIDC Sea I ce Index

Edited January 9, 2008 by BrickFielder

[Thundery wintry showers]

Seems that it's exceptionally warm in Svalbard at the moment, while the rest of the Arctic has temperatures close to average. Temperatures may well fall below average over Canada/northern USA and to the west of Greenland, consistent with the cold air spillage that BrickFielder mentions.

[ghrud]

and such a reputable site an' all..........................

NOTE: The timeseries graphs on this site are currently incorrect. We had a hardware problem corrupt the data and are currently recreating the timeseries from original data sources. Expect the correct data in 5-7 days. We apologize for the inconvenience.

This is taken from the front front page of Cryosphere Today, I take they must have some kind of problem with all their data a moment!

[oldsnowywizard]

Brickfielder, i can see a high pressure system in Alaska, but i cant see warm air being pushed into the arctic..can you post the charts showing this...

all i see is this chart for next week... showing lots of nice cold weather

ghrud that note has been on there for about 4 weeks... i think its all sorted today... i have emailed them to check though.. after all the antartica chart showed a massive loss of 500k sq kms today so something is still possibly wrong with either the data before or after their issue

[Gray-Wolf]

Re C.T.

We are entering unchartered waters and the 'accepted methods' for masking and guestimating ice extents/levels will not reflect this new era. It's like the GFS struggling to predict weather patterns outside those it recognises/can predict (AKA 'the even larger teapot')

Though AFT has issues with accepting this 'new age' it doesn't change the reality.

If you were told to look at a grid and estimate ice density (area) then you would do what you are told. If the ice was acting in strange ways thought you report what you observe your observations would be misleading.

If you look at july this year in the arctic you will see ice ablation at rates never before witnessed. By Aug you'd havbe seen Uk sized portions dissapear in a week......not within the normal bounds of observation.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Re C.T.

We are entering unchartered waters and the 'accepted methods' for masking and guestimating ice extents/levels will not reflect this new era. It's like the GFS struggling to predict weather patterns outside those it recognises/can predict (AKA 'the even larger teapot')

All GFS does is forecast the 'even larger teapot' so no struggles there. Looking very cold up there.

BFTP

[mettalfabrik]

check out this, need anymore proof !

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...P-iditarod.html

[jethro]

Came across this, here's the intro:

1. Introduction

In the past decade, Arctic sea ice extent has significantly reduced in summer [Comiso,

2002, 2006, Sturm et al., 2003, Rigor and Wallace, 2004, Francis et al., 2005, Nghiem

and Neumann, 2007, Stroeve et al., 2007]. Within the total ice extent, Arctic sea ice

consists of two major ice classes: perennial (multi-year) and seasonal (first-year) sea ice.

Each of these ice classes has distinctive physical characteristics in thickness, albedo,

salinity, brine inclusion, and roughness [Weeks and Ackley, 1982]. In terms of total sea

ice mass, the old and thick perennial ice dominated the younger and thinner seasonal ice

that melted away in summer. Most notably, perennial ice is more likely to survive the

summer melt season. Changes in perennial ice are therefore crucial to the mass balance of

Arctic sea ice

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Nghiem/r...ial_sea_ice.pdf

There's been a few questions asking why some areas of the Arctic have experienced greater losses than others, thought this may explain a little.

MODS: I know the link says global warming but it discusses the movement of buoys and what's moving where with the ice pack, it doesn't mention AGW either from pro or sceptic view, feel free to move if you think it should be elsewhere.

[Mondy]

Haven't checked back on this thread that much. The usual mixture of "oh, yes it, oh no it isn't" is evident.

Anyway, here's a Green website proclaiming: Arctic Sea Ice Re-Freezing at Record Pace

Record sea ice growth rates after a record low may sound surprising at first, but it is not completely unexpected. The more ice that survives the summer melt, the less open water there is for new ice to grow. When summertime ice extent hits a record low, on the other hand, large areas of open water provide room for the ice to grow once temperatures cool off enough. While summer warming of the upper ocean surface can cause wintertime sea ice regrowth to lag initially, as the fall season progresses and sunlight weakens, the rate of energy loss from the ocean increases. That heat loss coupled with a large area of open water creates ideal conditions for sea ice to form rapidly over large areas.

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental...ea-ice-47121205

So, i find it rather crass when reading as a guest, this:

Just wait until April and watch the ice melt rates in the Arctic basin, I promise you that you will have never seen the likes!

I know where the complain button is! Never before have i felt so strongly in using it - do we have to keep reading this EVERYWHERE!!?

Edited January 19, 2008 by Mondy

[Stratos Ferric]

Haven't checked back on this thread that much. The usual mixture of "oh, yes it, oh no it isn't" is evident.

Anyway, here's a Green website proclaiming: Arctic Sea Ice Re-Freezing at Record Pace

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental...ea-ice-47121205

No surprises there really Mondy. We discussed this back in autumn: if anything, it was more telling that the refreeze started late - though even this can be explained - but once it got going a recovery towards winter norms is what you'd expect, and starting from further back (in two senses) it should happen faster too. What would REALLY be news would be a refreeze to the extent that we saw a couple of decades ago.

Interesting that the total global anomaly is currently in positive territory for the first time in a long while.