carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[carinthian]

Evening all,

The winter season starts with ice coverage very similar to last year, thats about 1 million sq km down on the 30 year average. Considering the record loss this past summer thats equates to a near miracle recovery this past 3 months. The best recovery has been in the Arctic Basin itself and NE Canada. The Barent Sea continues to retain a lot of open water with very little growth in seasonal ice coverage. This seems to be an on-going theme in this part of the Arctic waters. Western Canada produced above average growth during September and October, however November has seen a decline in the seasonal growth, this dispite below average temperatures. Currently a plume of very warm air is pushing into the Western Arctic Basin between Alaska and NE Siberia. This may well temper the recent recovery and formation of new ice in this location.

The Autumn period has been dominated by high pressure over the Pole and the feed of warm air is likely to strengthen the Arctic high into December with the bottled cold air being displaced from Greenland and with a resultant intensification of cold air over Northern Siberia.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Evening all,

The winter season starts with ice coverage very similar to last year, thats about 1 million sq km down on the 30 year average. Considering the record loss this past summer thats equates to a near miracle recovery this past 3 months. The best recovery has been in the Arctic Basin itself and NE Canada. The Barent Sea continues to retain a lot of open water with very little growth in seasonal ice coverage. This seems to be an on-going theme in this part of the Arctic waters. Western Canada produced above average growth during September and October, however November has seen a decline in the seasonal growth, this dispite below average temperatures. Currently a plume of very warm air is pushing into the Western Arctic Basin between Alaska and NE Siberia. This may well temper the recent recovery and formation of new ice in this location.

The Autumn period has been dominated by high pressure over the Pole and the feed of warm air is likely to strengthen the Arctic high into December with the bottled cold air being displaced from Greenland and with a resultant intensification of cold air over Northern Siberia.

C

Hi C

Interesting re November in the Western Canada region with below ave temps but below ave ice. Supports the theory of ocean warmth IMO for the ice loss and not the 'other'.

BFTP

[oldsnowywizard]

well it looks like a large area of ice has disappeared in one day!

the area in question is around the island in the Chuckchi. yesterday the ice pack was up to this island.. quite a withdrawl... the cause of this??

IMO a combination of warmer air and strong winds.ocean circulation. Carinth perhaps you could add your thoughts?

the good news is the warmer plume is cut off and temperatures make a big recovery in 3 days time.. next week there is widespread -20/ -30 temps across most of Russia, Canada forecast... .. Stratos a query for you.. last year i remember you saying something about there only being so much cold.. with the high pressure splitting and forcing the cold air into Russia and Canada now would you agree that the total are of cold is much greater in a few days time...as the warm brought up over Alaska cools rapidly? just wondering...

wow check out the positive anomolies!!!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc....fnl.html

Edited December 1, 2007 by oldsnowywizard

[Optimus Prime]

I had already discussed what I thought and feared in the other thread a few days ago;

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...7&start=527

[carinthian]

well it looks like a large area of ice has disappeared in one day!

the area in question is around the island in the Chuckchi. yesterday the ice pack was up to this island.. quite a withdrawl... the cause of this??

IMO a combination of warmer air and strong winds.ocean circulation. Carinth perhaps you could add your thoughts?

the good news is the warmer plume is cut off and temperatures make a big recovery in 3 days time.. next week there is widespread -20/ -30 temps across most of Russia, Canada forecast... .. Stratos a query for you.. last year i remember you saying something about there only being so much cold.. with the high pressure splitting and forcing the cold air into Russia and Canada now would you agree that the total are of cold is much greater in a few days time...as the warm brought up over Alaska cools rapidly? just wondering...

wow check out the positive anomolies!!!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc....fnl.html

Hello OSW,

The winds of gale force proportions channelled through the Bering Straights break down the inversions of temperature and by causing the mixing of air layers usually bring about a considerable rise in temperatuires , further increased by foehn effects. The presence of ice can in these circumstances be quickly dispersed, only to return as soon as the ocean swell and air tempertures recover in just a matter of days. Hope this explains.

C

[carinthian]

Hello OSW,

The winds of gale force proportions channelled through the Bering Straights break down the inversions of temperature and by causing the mixing of air layers usually bring about a considerable rise in temperatuires , further increased by foehn effects. The presence of ice can in these circumstances be quickly dispersed, only to return as soon as the ocean swell and air tempertures recover in just a matter of days. Hope this explains.

C

Morning,

Some station reports from the far NE of Siberian region of Chukotski recording middle temperatures during the past 24 hours more than 20c above normal.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

further to the above check this out!!!!!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

however reports of -41 degrees in parts of Canada and Russia...

slightly to one side... i am official a little worried.. this is based on one program on last night... it mentioned permafrost and the methane produced at the bottom of the lakes in Siberia... they lit the gas that was frozen and they had fire coming from the ice.. it was amazing. however it really hit home as one of the biggest threats to gloal warming.. Methane apparently is 26 times as bad as CO2!! if there was ever a case to fill the bottom of the lakes with concrete then this is it.. they would also need to stop the permafrost falling into the lakes......

[eddie]

further to the above check this out!!!!!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

however reports of -41 degrees in parts of Canada and Russia...

slightly to one side... i am official a little worried.. this is based on one program on last night... it mentioned permafrost and the methane produced at the bottom of the lakes in Siberia... they lit the gas that was frozen and they had fire coming from the ice.. it was amazing. however it really hit home as one of the biggest threats to gloal warming.. Methane apparently is 26 times as bad as CO2!! if there was ever a case to fill the bottom of the lakes with concrete then this is it.. they would also need to stop the permafrost falling into the lakes......

That chart really is amazing! Vast areas of the arctic over 20C warmer than they should be at this time of year.

It's interesting that the largest temperature anomaly is in the area to the NW of alaska where there is still a big hole in the sea ice.

What happens next summer when the sea ice starts to melt again is going to be both facinating and frightening.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, and it's easy to see on the 850hPa Northern Hemisphere charts where those ridiculous anomalies come from- 850hPa temps exceeding 0C across areas where they would normally be around -20C! It does look like the anomaly will subside over the next week or so.

[Gray-Wolf]

I share the concerns of the above. It would be freaky enough for a small area of the Arctic to suffer such warmth within the warm sector of a fast moving depression but such a large area? I'm very suspicious as to the evolving warm water currents now moving in through Bearing. 2 years back we witnessed the polynya facing the straights laying testament to both the penetration of the warm waters and it's abilities to melt the ice pack from the bottom up. Seeing as the whole of that side of the Arctic was ice free this year you have to wonder how the 'trans-arctic' currents now are and if they are self sustaining (with the shallows across Bearing not forming an 'ice dam' as they used to).

If you have the 'contact surface' of a relatively warm ocean and the atmosphere mixing up to the 2m measuring point then the +20c anom would appear to show the difference from measuring 2m temps above ice (with the 'warmth sealed below) and 2m temps above open water.

I am in no way convinced of Corinth's 'remarkable recovery' so far this year. I'd guess at a 'superficial recovery' which could be blighted by storms fracturing ice crusts and allowing ice melt (and causing 2m +ve temp anoms above) throughout the season followed by a very rapid 'melt' come spring proper.

Again I'll say that our concerns should be with the multiyear ice and how it fares through summer. I am in no way convinced we need wait 30yrs to see an ice free Summer Arctic!

[Optimus Prime]

Methane apparently is 26 times as bad as CO2!! if there was ever a case to fill the bottom of the lakes with concrete then this is it.. they would also need to stop the permafrost falling into the lakes......

In the context, It's not as 'bad as C02' but is properties as a pollutant (to plant life and animals) is much more devastating then Carbon Dioxide.

I very much doubt they'll be any permafrost melt, it would need to remain at above freezing for several weeks, however a small area west of the arctic circle is currently 10c above freezing which is remarkable.

[BrickFielder]

Forecasts suggest some high pressure is likely across the arctic region and temperatures are likely to take a tumble as a result. Cold is building across siberia as well so we should expect the ice to build nicely from next week onwards.

[Roger J Smith]

Past few days and also next few, we're seeing the rare appearance of a true retrograde jet stream branch due to cut off high pressure at all levels over the Beaufort. This morning Alaskan stations were reporting 500 mb winds from 070 or 080 at almost 100 mph, quite unusual. This strong high has built up from persistent but more surface-based high pressure over the Canadian arctic islands, a region which seems to have been persistently cold since the latter stages of the ice-free anomaly. The feedback mechanisms of enhanced snowfall and forced positioning of an upper ridge and higher thicknesses over the Bering Strait, seem to be locked in place but progs show this slowly dissolving over 6-10 days so perhaps the ice-free anomaly is now in its last stages for this season. I agree that it may become a more frequent visitor in seasons to come, and a first stage in the evolution of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. Human complicity in this remains uncertain in my estimation, although I plead personally not guilty as I live in a cave and eat nothing but fungi.

[oldsnowywizard]

In the context, It's not as 'bad as C02' but is properties as a pollutant (to plant life and animals) is much more devastating then Carbon Dioxide.

I very much doubt they'll be any permafrost melt, it would need to remain at above freezing for several weeks, however a small area west of the arctic circle is currently 10c above freezing which is remarkable.

yes quite right there wont be any melt during the 6 months of ice cover, however during the summer its a different matter.... they were saying that there is enough methane in Siberia to warrant a rather potent rise in temps globally... worrying... anyway looks like hudson is freezing over nicely and this area still maintains negative surface temps.......

[Gray-Wolf]

How's about a sudden surge in sea levels generated from Antarctica with a meltwater 'surge' pushing into the Pacific? wouldn't that bring a lot of 'warm waters' into the arctic via Bearing and induce a circulation around the arctic as we saw this summer? If I'm right about what I'm seeing by Mcmurdo then we could well be in for another surge this winter and even more 'strange' goings on in the arctic this summer as the multiyear is lifted off the sea bed and set adrift in the 'new' circulation. Strange the folk that would witness,measure and bring us this info are mute. Maybe I'm just mad.......

[oldsnowywizard]

GW could you back your theory up of warmer water coming through the bearing sea with some maps? i use ncoda and to be honest all i have seen in the last few months are below normal temps in this area? i do think though there could be a few sneaky under water volcanoes spouting hot water in this area...?

some very cold temperatures in some areas.. for example -42 degrees c recorded at northway airport.... brrrr

[Gray-Wolf]

GW could you back your theory up of warmer water coming through the bearing sea with some maps? i use ncoda and to be honest all i have seen in the last few months are below normal temps in this area? i do think though there could be a few sneaky under water volcanoes spouting hot water in this area...?

some very cold temperatures in some areas.. for example -42 degrees c recorded at northway airport.... brrrr

We wouldn't be talking tropical temps here OSW just 'forced' ocean currents flowing through ocean level hikes. Any stange melt patterns around Bearing this year or any reluctance to freeze in that area?

[Stratos Ferric]

How's about a sudden surge in sea levels generated from Antarctica with a meltwater 'surge' pushing into the Pacific? wouldn't that bring a lot of 'warm waters' into the arctic via Bearing and induce a circulation around the arctic as we saw this summer? If I'm right about what I'm seeing by Mcmurdo then we could well be in for another surge this winter and even more 'strange' goings on in the arctic this summer as the multiyear is lifted off the sea bed and set adrift in the 'new' circulation. Strange the folk that would witness,measure and bring us this info are mute. Maybe I'm just mad.......

It's a theory GW, but I would take some convincing. It's rather like supposing that if I squeeze onto an already crowded tube carriage I somehow cause a movement at the opposite end of the carriage. The ocean circulations are fairly slow, and tend to be hemispheric at the surface (as the atmosphere is); the deep flows are slower still on the whole, but do cross hemispheres. I think there would need to be an awful lot of Antarctic melt water before there was significant forcing (beyond more of the same) at the opposite end of the earth.

[shuggee]

Now that SF has stopped typing - can we stick to what's actually happening in the Arctic in this thread please. The whole of the environment change section can be used to discuss theories. Why not start a new thread over there and pottyprof can take care of you all

[Gray-Wolf]

Now that SF has stopped typing - can we stick to what's actually happening in the Arctic in this thread please. The whole of the environment change section can be used to discuss theories. Why not start a new thread over there and pottyprof can take care of you all

Not wishing t be a problem Shuggs! Just 20c+ anoms across the arctic basin need some explaining!

[carinthian]

I share the concerns of the above. It would be freaky enough for a small area of the Arctic to suffer such warmth within the warm sector of a fast moving depression but such a large area? I'm very suspicious as to the evolving warm water currents now moving in through Bearing. 2 years back we witnessed the polynya facing the straights laying testament to both the penetration of the warm waters and it's abilities to melt the ice pack from the bottom up. Seeing as the whole of that side of the Arctic was ice free this year you have to wonder how the 'trans-arctic' currents now are and if they are self sustaining (with the shallows across Bearing not forming an 'ice dam' as they used to).

If you have the 'contact surface' of a relatively warm ocean and the atmosphere mixing up to the 2m measuring point then the +20c anom would appear to show the difference from measuring 2m temps above ice (with the 'warmth sealed below) and 2m temps above open water.

I am in no way convinced of Corinth's 'remarkable recovery' so far this year. I'd guess at a 'superficial recovery' which could be blighted by storms fracturing ice crusts and allowing ice melt (and causing 2m +ve temp anoms above) throughout the season followed by a very rapid 'melt' come spring proper.

Again I'll say that our concerns should be with the multiyear ice and how it fares through summer. I am in no way convinced we need wait 30yrs to see an ice free Summer Arctic!

According to the latest graphs,the increase on last year amounts to 200,000 sq Km. That is a remarkable recovery in any mans language after the huge loss of summer ice retention in the Arctic waters this past summer. Indeed the greatest recovery has been recorded in the Basin itself, which constitutes a make up of multi- year ice and young ice. Recently, the Cryosphere boffins made a big issue about this summers record loss over the 30 year span. Can they now explain this positve recovery over such a short period ? The warmer temperatures recently seen in NE Siberia are caused by the force of the wind to break down the inversions of temperature and by causing the mixing of the air layers usually bring about a considerable rise in temperatures. This has happen before and the correction to intense cold follows shortly afterwards. Nothing else can provide such a temperature rise in this location, apart from a added foehn effect.

C

[Stratos Ferric]

According to the latest graphs,the increase on last year amounts to 200,000 sq Km. That is a remarkable recovery in any mans language after the huge loss of summer ice retention in the Arctic waters this past summer. Indeed the greatest recovery has been recorded in the Basin itself, which constitutes a make up of multi- year ice and young ice. Recently, the Cryosphere boffins made a big issue about this summers record loss over the 30 year span. Can they now explain this positve recovery over such a short period ? The warmer temperatures recently seen in NE Siberia are caused by the force of the wind to break down the inversions of temperature and by causing the mixing of the air layers usually bring about a considerable rise in temperatures. This has happen before and the correction to intense cold follows shortly afterwards. Nothing else can provide such a temperature rise in this location, apart from a added foehn effect.

C

C,

If you look back over a few of these threads you will see that I had postulated more rapid recovery for a number of reasons. WHat the plots don't necessarily show is how thick this ice is. The acid test of recovery is not now, when the ice should be forming anyway, but next Spring and Summer when we see how persistent the recovery actually is.

[carinthian]

C,

If you look back over a few of these threads you will see that I had postulated more rapid recovery for a number of reasons. WHat the plots don't necessarily show is how thick this ice is. The acid test of recovery is not now, when the ice should be forming anyway, but next Spring and Summer when we see how persistent the recovery actually is.

Yes,SF if the East Siberian Sea opens up again to such a large amount next summer, we may have real problem. The thickness of the late spring ice of the younger type will be important.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

update time...

the overall situation appears to be one of a u turn and we are losing ice... there is probably a lag between the images and the actual visual chart. The loss is probably the result of the warmer plume and strong winds in the Chuckch/basin last week?

there is quite a loss according to the eastern siberian http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.9.html

and basin http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.1.html

there appears to be a build up of high pressure and very low temps widespread forecast as we move to next week, so hopefully a big increase in sea ice concentrations... and thickness...

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

2006

2007

Asia - Little less

Europe - Lot more

North America - Lot more

Overall looks like we're slightly up on snow totals compared to last year.