carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[Interitus]

GW, i would have thought it would be obvious that if there was no ice in certain regions during the summer then of course multiyear ice wouldnt be there in the winter

Yes it is fairly obvious but only you have grasped that!

Further to what Grey Wolf added regarding models catching up with actuality -

"Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that satellite and other observations show the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the eighteen computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments."

source http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html

Note in particular -

"Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin, as well. "The actual rate of sea ice loss in March, about –1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 to 2006 period, was three times larger than the mean from the computer models," said Stroeve. March is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive"

Thus don't read too much into March ice extent now as it's fairly irrelevant. Its decline is only small though even this is down much more than predicted.

[Mr Sleet]

Yes it is fairly obvious but only you have grasped that!

Further to what Grey Wolf added regarding models catching up with actuality -

"Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that satellite and other observations show the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the eighteen computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments."

source http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html

Note in particular -

"Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin, as well. "The actual rate of sea ice loss in March, about –1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 to 2006 period, was three times larger than the mean from the computer models," said Stroeve. March is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive"

Thus don't read too much into March ice extent now as it's fairly irrelevant. Its decline is only small though even this is down much more than predicted.

Hi. Could we please keep this sort of talk to the Enviro thread please - "Polar Ice sets new minimum". This seems to be developing into another of those AGW arguments. Thanks

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes it is fairly obvious but only you have grasped that!

Further to what Grey Wolf added regarding models catching up with actuality -

"Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that satellite and other observations show the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the eighteen computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments."

source http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html

Note in particular -

"Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin, as well. "The actual rate of sea ice loss in March, about –1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 to 2006 period, was three times larger than the mean from the computer models," said Stroeve. March is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive"

Thus don't read too much into March ice extent now as it's fairly irrelevant. Its decline is only small though even this is down much more than predicted.

Hi interitus!

Thanks for the background to the current arctic ice situation, valuable for some!

Don't be detered by the nay sayers, they always call points of order or resort to personal jibes when faced with undeniable reality.

Gray-Wolf.

[Yorkshire Snow]

Hi interitus!

Thanks for the background to the current arctic ice situation, valuable for some!

Don't be detered by the nay sayers, they always call points of order or resort to personal jibes when faced with undeniable reality.

Gray-Wolf.

Hi GW,

The latest round of banter is indeed very interesting. But I still have this problem with recent charts. Yes, undeneibly there is a substantial reduction in Multi-year ice , the trend you have nicely illustrated. But why be so over zealous and aggressive in your posts?

Also, this year (I repeat ... this year), it looks as though there has been a somewhat remarkable recovery in ice (single and thin I know), over the massive loss of last summer.

Now, .... at some point in the past, single layer ice has remained and then built up so on and so on ...... pretty obvious stuff I guess.

So, and with a La Nina signal (forecast to predominate on and off through the next few years ... if the cycle theory is to be believed), perhaps we may see a small dip in global temps (dpending on Global warming modification) and a recovery of some sort (however temporay) in arctic ice.

Far fetched ..... probably ..... but lets see what the summer brings prior to the usual 'we're all doomed I tell you' posts.

As a summary of the sitauation regarding global polar ice: This year Antartic Ice looks very healthy and we have seen a recovery in winter Arctic ice (although of minimal thickness). There is concern for the Arctic over the coming summer ..... but time will tell. That's the facts of the moment.

Cheers

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW,

The latest round of banter is indeed very interesting. But I still have this problem with recent charts. Yes, undeneibly there is a substantial reduction in Multi-year ice , the trend you have nicely illustrated. But why be so over zealous and aggressive in your posts?

Also, this year (I repeat ... this year), it looks as though there has been a somewhat remarkable recovery in ice (single and thin I know), over the massive loss of last summer.

Now, .... at some point in the past, single layer ice has remained and then built up so on and so on ...... pretty obvious stuff I guess.

So, and with a La Nina signal (forecast to predominate on and off through the next few years ... if the cycle theory is to be believed), perhaps we may see a small dip in global temps (dpending on Global warming modification) and a recovery of some sort (however temporay) in arctic ice.

Far fetched ..... probably ..... but lets see what the summer brings prior to the usual 'we're all doomed I tell you' posts.

As a summary of the sitauation regarding global polar ice: This year Antartic Ice looks very healthy and we have seen a recovery in winter Arctic ice (although of minimal thickness). There is concern for the Arctic over the coming summer ..... but time will tell. That's the facts of the moment.

Cheers

Y.S

As I've mooted on other threads the 'weather' in the short term is the least of the inputs and the stored heat from the past 70 odd years is the major player.

Indeed 'time will tell' but are you saying you would be surprised to see the 'gains' in extent wiped out over the next few months and the resumption of the erosion of the multiyear pack? if so and the above comes to pass will you start to question your position in the light of it?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

As I've mooted on other threads the 'weather' in the short term is the least of the inputs and the stored heat from the past 70 odd years is the major player.

Indeed 'time will tell' but are you saying you would be surprised to see the 'gains' in extent wiped out over the next few months and the resumption of the erosion of the multiyear pack? if so and the above comes to pass will you start to question your position in the light of it?

As your image showed, there is virtually no multi-year pack sea ice left to melt. It is all set up for a clearance in excess of last year. Question is how thick is the winter's ice this year - but it's not something we have good data on - and will the weather cooperate.

[Gray-Wolf]

As your image showed, there is virtually no multi-year pack sea ice left to melt. It is all set up for a clearance in excess of last year. Question is how thick is the winter's ice this year - but it's not something we have good data on - and will the weather cooperate.

If we have no good data on it why were we receiving despairing releases about the thinness of the ice in Dec??? at that time much of the single year appeared to be in the 70cm to 1.25m range (and not the 2m average) .......or am I wrong yet again?

Arctic Sea Ice Still At Risk Despite Cold Winter, NASA Says (ScienceDaily ,Mar. 19, 2008)

— Using the latest satellite observations, NASA researchers and others report that the Arctic is still on "thin ice" when it comes to the condition of sea ice cover in the region. A colder-than-average winter in some regions of the Arctic this year has yielded an increase in the area of new sea ice, while the older sea ice that lasts for several years has continued to decline.

On March 18 the scientists said they believe that the increased area of sea ice this winter is due to recent weather conditions, while the decline in perennial ice reflects the longer-term warming climate trend and is a result of increased melting during summer and greater movement of the older ice out of the Arctic.

Perennial sea ice is the long-lived, year-round layer of ice that remains even when the surrounding short-lived seasonal sea ice melts away in summer to its minimum extent. It is this perennial sea ice, left over from the summer melt period, that has been rapidly declining from year to year, and that has gained the attention and research focus of scientists. According to NASA-processed microwave data, whereas perennial ice used to cover 50-60 percent of the Arctic, this year it covers less than 30 percent. Very old ice that remains in the Arctic for at least six years comprised over 20 percent of the Arctic area in the mid to late 1980s, but this winter it decreased to just six percent.

According to Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, as ice ages it continues to grow and thicken, so that older ice is generally also thicker ice. This winter the ice cover is much thinner overall and thus in a more vulnerable state heading into the summer melt season. NASA's ICESat satellite has contributed to understanding of the changes in ice thickness. To get a better understanding of the behavior of sea ice, NASA is planning a follow-on satellite mission, ICESat II, to launch in 2015.

Arctic sea ice grows and declines seasonally, ranging from an average minimum extent in September of 2.5 million square miles to an average winter maximum extent of 5.9 million square miles in March. This March, instruments on NASA's Aqua satellite and NOAA and U.S. Defense Department satellites showed the maximum sea ice extent slightly increased by 3.9 percent over that of the previous three years, but it is still below the long-term average by 2.2 percent. Increases in ice extent occurred in areas where surface temperatures were colder than the historical averages. At the same time, as a result of the export of ice from the Arctic, the area of perennial ice decreased to an all-time minimum.

Joey Comiso of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the lead author of a 2007 related study, used data from NASA's passive microwave data set to establish that the perennial ice cover at the summer Arctic ice minimum in 2007 was about 40 percent less than the 28-year average. According to the latest observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (an organization partially funded by NASA), perennial sea ice dropped from about 40 percent of the total ice pack last year to 30 percent of total ice this winter. The perennial ice is also growing younger, meaning that it is thinner and will be more vulnerable during the summer melt period.

In light of the Arctic's cold spell this winter, NASA satellites and scientists will continue to carefully watch conditions in the Arctic Ocean as summer settles in to better determine the extent of the perennial sea ice.

Edited March 20, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[eddie]

NASA's ICESat satellite has contributed to understanding of the changes in ice thickness. To get a better understanding of the behavior of sea ice, NASA is planning a follow-on satellite mission, ICESat II, to launch in 2015.

There might not be any point launching ICESat II in 2015 if some of the more pessimistic predictions come true. There won't be anything but single year ice to look at and open sea during the summer.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ice free Arctic ocean has been the trigger for an ice age 'without fail' in the Earths history. A very cold Arctic winter has occurred despite the ice collapse last year, zero change in global sea levels..in fact a net negative trend has occurred.

BFTP

[Stu_London]

At least we can go a long way to settling all these arguments by summer 2008 - which is good because they are becoming rather tedious.