March CET

[West is Best]

Hadley and Manley are both on 5.9C this morning (Mar 1 - 25) so maybe that Hadley recalibration has already occured :lol: .

A very slightly below average month (6.3C ref period 1971 - 2000) now looks reasonably likely given the models have backed away from the mega warmth originally progged for the last 2 days of the month

They have indeed, although as trade off we now have a much warmer period in the interim. Temps well into double figures by lunchtime today in some of the CET area. Will be a really interesting one this to see if the 1971-2000 mean gets pipped. For anything over 6.3C we'd need to see those last two days back to the sort of figures we were seeing in the models a couple of days ago.

Those assuming 5.9C and 6.0C are winners are, I fear, going to be disappointed.

[chionomaniac]

From the temps from todays GFS 12Z I reckon 6.0ºC will be the final CET resting point this month.

[The PIT]

From the temps from todays GFS 12Z I reckon 6.0ºC will be the final CET resting point this month.

Beginning to look milder than anyone expected for the last few days. So it may end up higher than 6.0C.

[Stu_London]

Beginning to look milder than anyone expected for the last few days. So it may end up higher than 6.0C.

Not quite sure where all this mildness is in the charts. OK some places made double figs today, but others stayed well down in the damp cloudy weather. I can't see anything before the 30th being warm enough to shift the CET more than a fraction as nights are due to remain quite chilly. Even on 30th and 31st the movement would be minimal.

6.1C tops - but maybe slightly less

[kold weather]

I'd probably go for 6.1C as the final CET, in truth close enough to the average to say its near to average rather than below if thats the case, though obviously it would be a below average month in terms of absolute figures.

[Snowly does it]

Those assuming 5.9C and 6.0C are winners are, I fear, going to be disappointed.

Then being an outgoing and caring type I shall share with them some of my delicious steak

Yes, the models insistent on a spell of decidedly average weather temperature wise until the end of the month, minima might possibly tweak things up a notch but its looking bleak for steak-betters sitting foolishly on the warm side of the fence when the polar bears are on the prowl.

[chionomaniac]

Beginning to look milder than anyone expected for the last few days. So it may end up higher than 6.0C.

It may do, but the days up to that point may average just slightly below 6ºC, so it could even out in the end.

I am surprised that the CET daily minima has not dropped below -0.3ºC during the latest cool/cold spell. Perhaps it's too much to ask this late in March.

[kold weather]

Its not so much that but there was a lot of cloud cover about during that cold snap ovenight, be it from the constant north sea showers or just general cloud, there was a good deal more precip about then the models predicted which held up temps a little more then was expected.

[West is Best]

Then being an outgoing and caring type I shall share with them some of my delicious steak

Yes, the models insistent on a spell of decidedly average weather temperature wise until the end of the month, minima might possibly tweak things up a notch but its looking bleak for steak-betters sitting foolishly on the warm side of the fence when the polar bears are on the prowl.

The milder spell over the next few days is now very much offset by the GFS backtracking on the real warm up over the final 3 days of the month.

So I fear you may yet be getting your steak Charlotte. Could be close. The CET is nudging ever upwards again now despite a chilly night but without those final two days to add 0.2C or even 0.3C I'm in danger here! 6.2C looks a good bet.

[Kentish Man]

Yesterday's mildish conditions have nudged Hadley up to 6.0C.

From here on in if the GFS temp profiles are correct today may see a slight fall due to a chilly night last night and average day, the next 2 days look like no significant change, a nudge up again on the 30th with possibly no change on the 31st. 6.1C looks good to me as final outturn.

[SMU]

Yesterday's mildish conditions have nudged Hadley up to 6.0C.

From here on in if the GFS temp profiles are correct today may see a slight fall due to a chilly night last night and average day, the next 2 days look like no significant change, a nudge up again on the 30th with possibly no change on the 31st. 6.1C looks good to me as final outturn.

Im loving 6.1 final

S

[kold weather]

Yeah I think we are going to come in between 6.0-6.2C, exactly where depends mainly on the overnight mins, pretty close to average overall.

[damianslaw]

Looking like being a very 'average' value CET, and I personally feel that the 'average' figure is quite in keeping with what I feel has been a very 'average' type March, very little in the way of extremeness temperaturewise and even weatherwise, although we did have the notable gales earlier in the month and for some unusual late March snow. In many respects it has been a very traditional type March.

[J10]

Looking like my estimate is not looking that bad, I'll certainly be on the high side but maybe within the 0.5c range.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley still on 6.0C today. Some of those weather stations in the more western part of the CET area must be holding the CET up. Here in Kent for example we recorded 0C in places early last night and are still struggling at 7.5C. Pershore I see though is up to 12.5C already after a much milder night than further east. Yesterday Manston in Kent only reached 7.6C while Malvern touched 13.6C On that basis 6.2C or maybe even a dead on average 6.3C perhaps is now looking more like the finishing mark.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Kentish Man

[eddie]

The Hadley CET is now 6.0C to the 27th.

It looks fairly certain now that this month will end up somewhere between the 1961-1990 and the 1971-2000 averages.

If March ends at 6.1C it will be the 26th warmest January - March period in the CET record.

[kold weather]

Not bad really Eddie given how mild Jan was, slow correction over the last 2 months down to temps more average for the time of year.

Looking like coming in between 6.0-6.1C.

[Weather-history]

March colder than January is a certainty now, first time since 1983.

PS. A record minimum for a date was set this March, -11.4C at Braemar on the 26th of March. The lowest recorded minimum for the last week of March since 1969

Edited March 29, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Snowly does it]

March colder than January is a certainty now, first time since 1983.

PS. A record minimum for a date was set this March, -11.4C at Braemar on the 26th of March. The lowest recorded minimum for the last week of March since 1969

Good spot Mr D! A date minimum record goes - first one for a long time to fall!

[Kentish Man]

Surprisingly there was no increase in CET yesterday so Hadley remains on 6.0C.

Manley is slightly lower at 5.9C.

Still looks like 6.1C - 6.2C as the finishing mark on Hadley. starting from May last year most months have been around average or slightly below bar of course the 2 key winter months of Jan and Feb - ironic really.

[stewfox]

Surprisingly there was no increase in CET yesterday so Hadley remains on 6.0C.

Manley is slightly lower at 5.9C.

Still looks like 6.1C - 6.2C as the finishing mark on Hadley. starting from May last year most months have been around average or slightly below bar of course the 2 key winter months of Jan and Feb - ironic really.

Give the snow and cold im amazed that March could turn out at 'average'

I guess so many mild dec/jan/feb you forget that March can be like that

My money is on 6.1c

[cheeky_monkey]

Give the snow and cold im amazed that March could turn out at 'average'

I guess so many mild dec/jan/feb you forget that March can be like that

My money is on 6.1c

probably because jan and feb were mild it just seems march was cold when in reality it wasnt!

[Kentish Man]

Well today's update from Hadley shows 6.1C.

So its all down to this final day of the month as to whether this is the finishing figure or whether it might just snuck up to 6.2C

[West is Best]

Well today's update from Hadley shows 6.1C.

So its all down to this final day of the month as to whether this is the finishing figure or whether it might just snuck up to 6.2C

Or indeed something different! They have a habit of changing things as they verify data - often by 0.2C or more in recent months.

Charlotte, this is going to be mighty close re. the steak! The fact that it's 6.3C on NW tracker won't count I know, but I'm banking on Hadley notching up to 6.3C or 6.4C. Or are we going by Manley?!

[Snowly does it]

Or indeed something different! They have a habit of changing things as they verify data - often by 0.2C or more in recent months.

Charlotte, this is going to be mighty close re. the steak! The fact that it's 6.3C on NW tracker won't count I know, but I'm banking on Hadley notching up to 6.3C or 6.4C. Or are we going by Manley?!

It's always close!

Hadley - if you reread your own betting proposal you will see why

IF Hadley is (as I suspect) on 6.15 rounded down and IF last night was not as cold in the CET zone as here it could conceivably end up (unmodified) at 6.3, but I favour 6.2 - I know Hadley tends to adjust but recently (the last year) this has been down, if at all, and usually by 0.2 so I am confident 6.0 to 6.2 is the landing zone (maybe just maybe 6.3 if you are a lucky little Westerner), Manley will be 6.2 or poss 6.1 if it rounds down.