March CET

[kold weather]

I think its odds on to be honest even if the cold spell is downgraded, we only have to drop a little to get below Jan's figure so even a half baked cold spell probably would do the job.

Should see a drop starting from Monday as the colder air is dragged down from the north thanks to the HP to our west.

[acbrixton]

It often doesn't get higher than 18C in March, I think that is more a reflection on how exceptional February was rather than how cool March has been.

Not sure that your assertion is correct. Using MO data only 2 out of the last 9 Marchs have failed to reach 18c:

1999 21.2c

2000 19.7c

2001 17.5c

2002 18.0c

2003 20.0c

2004 20.1c

2005 21.6c

2006 17.7c

2007 18.6c

Does anyone know where I can find monthly maxima for earlier years please?

regards

ACB

Edited March 16, 2008 by acbrixton

[Optimus Prime]

I think its odds on to be honest even if the cold spell is downgraded, we only have to drop a little to get below Jan's figure so even a half baked cold spell probably would do the job.

Should see a drop starting from Monday as the colder air is dragged down from the north thanks to the HP to our west.

Looking at the current output the second half of March does look cold. Could average around 3.0c even if that did happen the month overall would average 5.0c which can only be described as quite cold.

The last week will prove interesting, statistically the last week is always warmer then the rest of the month. If the last week was very mild (cold to warm is always very possible in March or April) it could still jump to 7.0c or over.

Realistically it won't drop below the average of 5.7c and probably no higher then 7.7c.

Still it looks to come in on par with 1995. The summer that year was the best with 76.

[Snowly does it]

Looking at the current output the second half of March does look cold. Could average around 3.0c even if that did happen the month overall would average 5.0c which can only be described as quite cold.

The last week will prove interesting, statistically the last week is always warmer then the rest of the month. If the last week was very mild (cold to warm is always very possible in March or April) it could still jump to 7.0c or over.

Realistically it won't drop below the average of 5.7c and probably no higher then 7.7c.

Still it looks to come in on par with 1995. The summer that year was the best with 76.

7.7 is, by a country mile, way too high imo.

It would require an exceptional 8.7 or so from here to get 7.7 as a finishing figure - thats without the very cold week looking very likely to come.

Even if the CET only dropped to a flat 6 by the 24th, it would then require something in the region of 13.5 every day for the last week - or just short of the June average. Can't understand how you can go for an even spread from the starting point with a notably cold spell ahead - 4.7 to 6.7 would be more realistic surely? And 4.7 to 5.7 the more likely half. I am saying perhaps a 25% chance of getting a month more than 1.5 degrees below the 71-00 and an 85% chance of sub-par - I think the chance of sub 61-90 is probably 60% plus

[North-Easterly Blast]

7.7 is, by a country mile, way too high imo.

It would require an exceptional 8.7 or so from here to get 7.7 as a finishing figure - thats without the very cold week looking very likely to come.

Even if the CET only dropped to a flat 6 by the 24th, it would then require something in the region of 13.5 every day for the last week - or just short of the June average. Can't understand how you can go for an even spread from the starting point with a notably cold spell ahead - 4.7 to 6.7 would be more realistic surely? And 4.7 to 5.7 the more likely half. I am saying perhaps a 25% chance of getting a month more than 1.5 degrees below the 71-00 and an 85% chance of sub-par - I think the chance of sub 61-90 is probably 60% plus

4.7 is way too cold, that would require 2.7 for the rest of the month. The coldest second half to March since World War 2 was in 1969, of which the second half of that March had a CET of 3.3, and coincidently was identical to its first half. 7.7 is just as way too high, it does look rather cold with some frosts until the 20th and it looks almost set to be cold through the Easter weekend. A more recent cold second half of March was in 1975 (4.1*C), therefore making 5.4 the floor if the rest of the month mirrorred 1975. It is now looking likely that a warm up to some extent will happen in the last few days of the month, so something around the 6*C mark does look most likely, although sub 6*C still looks a possibility.

[Stu_London]

4.7 is way too cold, that would require 2.7 for the rest of the month. The coldest second half to March since World War 2 was in 1969, of which the second half of that March had a CET of 3.3, and coincidently was identical to its first half. 7.7 is just as way too high, it does look rather cold with some frosts until the 20th and it looks almost set to be cold through the Easter weekend. A more recent cold second half of March was in 1975 (4.1*C), therefore making 5.4 the floor if the rest of the month mirrorred 1975. It is now looking likely that a warm up to some extent will happen in the last few days of the month, so something around the 6*C mark does look most likely, although sub 6*C still looks a possibility.

Agree 4.7 does look too cold, however it is about the value progged by the GFS 12z.

According to the 12z it will be 2.5C from now to month end including a spell between 22/03 and 28/03 where the temperature averages 1C.

Of course the usual caveats about the GFS and FI apply, but unless the cold spell implodes a la ECM, sub 6 for march remains on track. This also reignites the sub 10 in running annual CET debate, especially if a cold start to April occurs.

[Matty M]

Looking like were steering towards the mid 5.0c

Edited March 16, 2008 by Matty M

[Snowly does it]

4.7 is way too cold, that would require 2.7 for the rest of the month. The coldest second half to March since World War 2 was in 1969, of which the second half of that March had a CET of 3.3, and coincidently was identical to its first half. 7.7 is just as way too high, it does look rather cold with some frosts until the 20th and it looks almost set to be cold through the Easter weekend. A more recent cold second half of March was in 1975 (4.1*C), therefore making 5.4 the floor if the rest of the month mirrorred 1975. It is now looking likely that a warm up to some extent will happen in the last few days of the month, so something around the 6*C mark does look most likely, although sub 6*C still looks a possibility.

mmm, yes ok 4.7 is a tad low given where we are in the month (probably) - but given that its the sort of figure that GFS would currently produce, I'll leave it as a floor for now.

As for a warm up month end - possibly from the very cold weather looking likely ahead but the ensemble mean is below average throughout, so I think low 5s the likely landing point.

Low 5s will mean something around the 30 year average for April could deliver the sub 10 rolling 12 months - then we just need an average May and June to get us somewhere near a rolling 71-00 average :o

[Stu_London]

looking likely ahead but the ensemble mean is below average throughout, so I think low 5s the likely landing point.

Low 5s will mean something around the 30 year average for April could deliver the sub 10 rolling 12 months - then we just need an average May and June to get us somewhere near a rolling 71-00 average :o

All possible if La Nina coninues

[Optimus Prime]

I don't think 7.7c is unreasonable given a very warm last week is quite likely. Temperatures can reach the 20s at this stage and minima can still remain in double figures. A warm spell during the last 7 days could raise the CET by as much as 2.1c. If it's 5.5c by the 23 it would reach 7.6c.

Sub 5.0 is totally out of the question the coming cold spell will be downgraded as we head nearer the time and it's not even that intensely cold in the CET area. It's be fairly noticeable in Scotland though.

Edited March 16, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[Duncan McAlister]

I don't think 7.7c is unreasonable given a very warm last week is quite likely. Temperatures can reach the 20s at this stage and minima can still remain in double figures. A warm spell during the last 7 days could raise the CET by as much as 2.1c. If it's 5.5c by the 23 it would reach 7.6c.

Sub 5.0 is totally out of the question the coming cold spell will be downgraded as we head nearer the time and it's not even that intensely cold in the CET area. It's be fairly noticeable in Scotland though.

There's no evidence of it in the ensembles. I would still suggest mid-high 5's is a reasonable landing area.

[Stu_London]

5.9C for me

Cool start - warmer in the last 10 days - but no heatwaves

Hmm - I thought I had gone for 5.1C - much happier with 5.9c

[Snowly does it]

I don't think 7.7c is unreasonable given a very warm last week is quite likely. Temperatures can reach the 20s at this stage and minima can still remain in double figures. A warm spell during the last 7 days could raise the CET by as much as 2.1c. If it's 5.5c by the 23 it would reach 7.6c.

5.5 by the 23rd - running total 126.5

7.6 to the 31st - running total 235.6

difference 109.1

Average required over 13.5 - 2.3 higher than the record April recorded last year and in sight of the June average with no ensemble member showing anything like that possibility - its simply not going to happen.

There is no indication of a warm last week yet showing on the models, temperatures in the 20s for 8 days would require exceptional synoptics.

Anything above average is highly unlikely from here.

[stewfox]

I don't think 7.7c is unreasonable given a very warm last week is quite likely. Temperatures can reach the 20s at this stage and minima can still remain in double figures. A warm spell during the last 7 days could raise the CET by as much as 2.1c. If it's 5.5c by the 23 it would reach 7.6c.

In the three months on the forum I've gone from the above to below

I've had an interest in the weather since I could talk but a very limited understanding of CETs and model forecasting

I'm beginning to understand posting unsubstantiated predictions could upset more seasons' members :o

Of course a few maxs of 70f end of the month would shift the CET up but there is nothing to support this

In fact 6.4 is looking a bit optimistic

5.5 by the 23rd - running total 126.5

7.6 to the 31st - running total 235.6

difference 109.1

Average required over 13.5 - 2.3 higher than the record April recorded last year and in sight of the June average with no ensemble member showing anything like that possibility - its simply not going to happen.

There is no indication of a warm last week yet showing on the models, temperatures in the 20s for 8 days would require exceptional synoptics.

Anything above average is highly unlikely from here.

Edited March 17, 2008 by stewfox

[Kentish Man]

Hadley today is 6.8C (Mar 1 - 16) and Manley 6.9C (unchanged from yesterday) and it looks like these figures will now represent the high point of the month CET wise. A late March 1975 style cold spell now looks odds on and the interesting thing is whether March will be colder than Jan's 6.6C (easy) and Feb's 5.4C (now looking increasingly possible).

Dec 2007's 4.9C may however be out of reach to make Mar 2008 the coldest month of the winter half year.

Edited March 17, 2008 by Kentish Man

[chionomaniac]

7.3ºc for this month

OOPS!!!

Being well out and knocked off top spot will be a small price to pay if I get to see some snow and can build a snowman before it melts.

CET is now going to drop quicker than Paul McCartney's bank balance over the next few days. The CET will probably be below 5.5ºC by the end of Easter Monday.

c

[NorthernRab]

4.2C due to a cold start.

I'm way off. Cold end more like.

Is there a publishing of each country seperately? Perhaps my prediction will be nearer the mark for Scotland? lol

[kold weather]

7.7C is unresonable and even if we were to have an exceptional mild/warm spell we are still highly unlikely to get the sort of set-up required to take us above 7C yet alone to the heights of 7.7C.

A warm-up in the last few days of the month is of course possible but by that stage if we are down to about 5.5C it'll have to be a pretty amazing warm shot to reach even the average...given the models seem pretty confident on this cold shot lasting till the 26-28th.

[Stargazer]

My best guess is we'll end up close to average, with a week of temperatures averaging around 4 deg C and a gradual warm-up after that. It certainly looks unlikely at this stage that the second half of March will be as warm as the first half, but the sun's getting stronger all the time so I would be hesitant to dismiss an above-average outcome completely.

[damianslaw]

Certainly a very high chance of March CET coming in below Januarys figure, but i think beating February could be a bit of a tall order, we shall see...

My guess of 5.9 degrees is looking quite realistic, could well be my 4th month in the last 6 of being either bang on or just within 0.1 degree of the actual figure.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley now stands at 6.5C (Mar 1 -18) and Climate UK Manley at 6.6C.

The latest model charts indicate things potentially warming up after Tuesday of next week so the chance of March being colder than Feb is increasingly unlikely. The question now is whether we will have a below par month (6.3C 1971 - 2000). It does now look more like low 6's so could be close.

[The PIT]

Hadley now stands at 6.5C (Mar 1 -18) and Climate UK Manley at 6.6C.

The latest model charts indicate things potentially warming up after Tuesday of next week so the chance of March being colder than Feb is increasingly unlikely. The question now is whether we will have a below par month (6.3C 1971 - 2000). It does now look more like low 6's so could be close.

Can't really argue with that. I reckon 6C right now.

[Optimus Prime]

Lastest GFS run predicts the 20th-31st will average 3.8c which is 3.2c below the average for the last wek of March.

Current CET is about 6.7c so by the 31st the CET should average around 5.7c. This is 0.6c below the recent average.

From this upcoming the cold snap from start to finish it's likely to average around 1.7c.

[damianslaw]

Lastest GFS run predicts the 20th-31st will average 3.8c which is 3.2c below the average for the last wek of March.

Current CET is about 6.7c so by the 31st the CET should average around 5.7c. This is 0.6c below the recent average.

From this upcoming the cold snap from start to finish it's likely to average around 1.7c.

Wonder how the 1.7 c compares to the CET value recorded during the cold period of december and february - can't be far different i suspect.

[Weather-history]

Manley CET is 6.4 according to Philip.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Here is the split

Mean Max (1st-20th) 9.6ºC (+0.9 degC)

Mean Min (1st-20th) 3.2ºC ( -0.1 degC)

Could be the 2nd consecutive month for Manley to record a mean minimum below the average. Something we are not use to!

Interestingly, the current mean maximum for this March is identical to the mean maximum for February.