March CET

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Manley now 6.3°C to 22nd.

With nine days to go in the month, what will be the CET min and how much will it rise to the finish? I think a few days of cold could take it to 5.8°C. Few days unchanged. Warmer final few days could take it back to 6.3°C.

[Rob]

yet another above average month, any one bored of this theme?

[Snowly does it]

Manley now 6.3°C to 22nd.

With nine days to go in the month, what will be the CET min and how much will it rise to the finish? I think a few days of cold could take it to 5.8°C. Few days unchanged. Warmer final few days could take it back to 6.3°C.

Minima for the next couple of nights could get rather low. Low 5s looks trickey from her enow, high 5s favourite - 5.7-5.9 unless there is a dramatic warm up in which case maybe around the 71-00 average. Difficult to see much outside the 5.5-6.5 range from here at the outsides. Below average slight favourite.

yet another above average month, any one bored of this theme?

The March average is 6.3, so its not looking by any means certain to be above average.

[The PIT]

Trying to understand why Hadley has the temp +1C which would put the average for March around 5.4C which seems a bit low. I think they mean 0.1C.

[Duncan McAlister]

Trying to understand why Hadley has the temp +1C which would put the average for March around 5.4C which seems a bit low. I think they mean 0.1C.

Hadley still use the 61-90 average of 5.7C. Also, they use a rolling average, so the 61-90 average for the first 22 days of March is 5.4C.

[The PIT]

Well in boiling Sheffield it looks like coming in below average. Outside chance of being below both Jan and Feb depending on how long the cool/cold snap goes on. I suspect we're looking at 6.1C for the CET region unless some very cold nights kick in.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Philip Eden has the CET 6.1C upto 23rd so bang on average. More below average temps to come. My 5.7c is looking very good.

BFTP

[ukmoose]

Philip Eden has the CET 6.1C upto 23rd so bang on average. More below average temps to come. My 5.7c is looking very good.

BFTP

It's not bad, Blast, but I guess you will be at the lower end of those in with a chance this month. 5.7 to 6.5 still in with a chance I'd say.

Moose

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's not bad, Blast, but I guess you will be at the lower end of those in with a chance this month. 5.7 to 6.5 still in with a chance I'd say.

Moose

I think a below average month is favourite. Drop in CET for a couple more days at least then certainly no rise on the horizon.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Any word on the whereabouts of Stratos Ferric?

He is missing from his familiar haunts here in the CET thread and elsewhere.

[Terminal Moraine]

Any word on the whereabouts of Stratos Ferric?

He is missing from his familiar haunts here in the CET thread and elsewhere.

I think he's on a skiiing holiday somewhere in Europe.

[Mammatus]

Pleased with my guestimate of a CET 6C.

5.8C - 6.5C IMO.

Mammatus

[West is Best]

Pleased with my guestimate of a CET 6C.

With 6.1C currently on the board and a significant warm up on the way I wouldn't hold your breath! In particular it looks as if 3 of the final 7 days could post means in double figures (the 31st for instance looks like posting some maxes of 18C in places) - enough even at this late stage to lift it to 6.5C on those three alone.

Two battles in play at the moment: one is the 1970-2001 figure of 6.3C which looks like being nipped. The other is whether this will beat the 6.6C of January. My guess from here is that it will be close to it.

[Snowly does it]

With 6.1C currently on the board and a significant warm up on the way I wouldn't hold your breath! In particular it looks as if 3 of the final 7 days could post means in double figures (the 31st for instance looks like posting some maxes of 18C in places) - enough even at this late stage to lift it to 6.5C on those three alone.

Two battles in play at the moment: one is the 1970-2001 figure of 6.3C which looks like being nipped. The other is whether this will beat the 6.6C of January. My guess from here is that it will be close to it.

LMAO Richard, looks like we will be back to betting steaks - the 31st aside, the rest looks average or below average - today will see a drop as will tomorrow and probably Wednesday so you're battling from probably 5.7 to 5.8, not 6.1.

The last 3 days of the month might post maxima in double figures - which would be average for late March, minima look lower and would give returns around average. The 31st does look exceptionally mild and might add 0.2 to the final total - which looks odds on to be below average

I prefer snowy Richard to punting too high Richard, I have to keep putting the latter back on the path of righteousness, and I'm kinda tired.

[The PIT]

Well last night should put a dint on the figures andf possibly tonight. After that there shouldn't be too much change until the last day. 6c still my favourite at the moment.

[West is Best]

LMAO Richard, looks like we will be back to betting steaks - the 31st aside, the rest looks average or below average - today will see a drop as will tomorrow and probably Wednesday so you're battling from probably 5.7 to 5.8, not 6.1.

The last 3 days of the month might post maxima in double figures - which would be average for late March, minima look lower and would give returns around average. The 31st does look exceptionally mild and might add 0.2 to the final total - which looks odds on to be below average

I prefer snowy Richard to punting too high Richard, I have to keep putting the latter back on the path of righteousness, and I'm kinda tired.

Sorry you feel tired. How about a steak then to lift your flagging spirits Charlotte?

My punt: it will be 6.3C or higher on the official Hadley figure. If it is, it's a steak for me. On?

[Duncan McAlister]

Am I right in thinking yesterday didn't see a fall on Hadley? Pretty surprising if that's the case.

[Kentish Man]

Am I right in thinking yesterday didn't see a fall on Hadley? Pretty surprising if that's the case.

Yes you're right as it's still showing 6.1C (Mar 1 - 24) as a headline figure. This seems a little extraordinary as Manley is now 5.95C rounded up to 6.0C, a fall of 0.15C since yesterday (if my memory is correct). A quick glance at West Midland temps yesterday seem to indicate an average temp of around 4C so all in all a little odd.

There is still some chopping and changing on the models to the end of the month. The latest GFS 06z run indicates a cooler Mar 31st than appeared to be the case yesterday. As The Pit says above around 6.0C still looks good.

[West is Best]

All down to Lancashire I suspect ...

The west has been significantly milder than the east, so the CET is arguably a little skewed this time though I suppose it's swings and roundabouts. Amazing how often the Lancs plain props it up though.

[Snowly does it]

Sorry you feel tired. How about a steak then to lift your flagging spirits Charlotte?

My punt: it will be 6.3C or higher on the official Hadley figure. If it is, it's a steak for me. On?

Yes, you're on - despite Hadley relying on the temperatures inside a hotpot to prop up March, it will still end up below average

[ukmoose]

It is surprising that the CET has not dropped more over the last few days and nights.

Whereas last month there was a very marked north/south split, I have to agree that the split this time is more east west with the latter seemingly holding the CET up against the odds just recently. I would certainly have expected a more substantial fall than we have had.

Around 6, give or take point one or two looking good at the moment with a week to go - night time minima may hold the key to the final figure.

Moose

[damianslaw]

First time on the forum since friday and as others have said i'm quite surprised at where the CET is at present, i was thinking their would have been a marked downward trend in the last few days. It must have been the much higher minimums than anticipated.

My 5.9 looks in with a good shout at this stage.

[Stu_London]

My 5.9 looks in with a good shout at this stage.

I agree, my 5.9 looks OK too.

I wouldn't be suprised if the is some recalabrating done on the last day for Hadley as it seems to have been decoupled from the Manley figures that Philip provides.

[Mammatus]

My 6.0C CET guestimate is looking very accurate. God I'm good.

Mammatus

[Kentish Man]

Hadley and Manley are both on 5.9C this morning (Mar 1 - 25) so maybe that Hadley recalibration has already occured :lol: .

A very slightly below average month (6.3C ref period 1971 - 2000) now looks reasonably likely given the models have backed away from the mega warmth originally progged for the last 2 days of the month