March CET

[kold weather]

Yes indeed Stu indeed I think there is a chance depending on how long the cooler set-up lasts that we could come beneath Feb 08 CET as well, though probably December's CEt may be just a touch too low for the set-up we are seeing on the models presently given even March 06 could only match it just.

[Weather-history]

Thanks to the now ever toasty North Atlantic the warmest March C.E.T on record 10C.

Any point waiting to the end of the year to give Craig, the wooden spoon?

Edited March 12, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Scorcher]

Any point waiting to the end of the year to give Craig, the wooden spoon? :o

That's a bit harsh, he's usually closer than everyone else!

[Weather-history]

That's a bit harsh, he's usually closer than everyone else!

I said it in jest as Craig has gone for a record breaking warm month everytime. :o

[The PIT]

Can I reverse my numbers so it says 4.7C????

[Weather-history]

If the January Hadley CET is 6.5 or less, it will be colder than January for the first time since 1983

If March turns out a Hadley CET of less than 5.4, then it will be colder than February for the first time since 1995

If March turns out colder than February, it will obviously be colder than January and the last occasion March was colder than January and February was in 1962

[SteveB]

If the January Hadley CET is 6.5 or less, it will be colder than January for the first time since 1983

If March turns out a Hadley CET of less than 5.4, then it will be colder than February for the first time since 1995

If March turns out colder than February, it will obviously be colder than January and the last occasion March was colder than January and February was in 1962

And look what happened in 1963. I thought I would get that one in before anyone else did :o

[eddie]

The Hadley CET is now 6.5C after yesterday was 8.5C

[kold weather]

Probably will remain close to that for the next few days till Monday when the models prog a cooler flow to become establised. Doesn't look that cold but its going to be enough to slowly drag the CET I'd have thought. From looking at the models below average looking the most likely, maybe even decently below average though it will require a cold shot with a real punch for us to get the sort of temps needed to get below say 5.5C for the overall CET.

Looking very likely that March will be colder than Jan, Feb may well be quite a close run thing but if the models are right it may also fall.

Edited March 12, 2008 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

Probably will remain close to that for the next few days till Monday when the models prog a cooler flow to become establised. Doesn't look that cold but its going to be enough to slowly drag the CET I'd have thought. From looking at the models below average looking the most likely, maybe even decently below average though it will require a cold shot with a real punch for us to get the sort of temps needed to get below say 5.5C for the overall CET.

Looking very likely that March will be colder than Jan, Feb may well be quite a close run thing but if the models are right it may also fall.

My earlier projection of 5.0C won't happen because it assumed we would be about 6.2C now. 5.5C looks far more feasible, although based on models downgrading cold and the like I would say there is little downside to this and considerable upside.

[Stargazer]

From recent experience (cold spells being overdone in the models and only ending up as a couple of days of near-average temperatures) I wouldn't bank on a below average month yet. And we're not yet halfway through the month, so a late warm spell can't be completely dismissed. All the same, like PIT I went for 7.4 and have to acccept that I've probably overcooked this one...

[Scorcher]

From recent experience (cold spells being overdone in the models and only ending up as a couple of days of near-average temperatures) I wouldn't bank on a below average month yet. And we're not yet halfway through the month, so a late warm spell can't be completely dismissed. All the same, like PIT I went for 7.4 and have to acccept that I've probably overcooked this one...

I think March 2006 just sums up the unpredicatability of March and why I would not be counting any chickens about a below average month. That month was notably below average right until the last week when there was a major warm up and prevented it from being anything remarkable. At this point in 2006 we were well below average. Right now the CET is 1C above average and yet some are suggesting a below average month is set in stone! Yes, it could happen but when the first half is above average it does not favour a below average month overall. There is a considerable increase in the strength of the sun between the start of March and the end of the month so this has to be taken into account.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Marches where the second half had a colder CET value than the first half since World War 2:

1952, 1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1991, 2000, 2007.

Looks very likely now that 2008 will join this list.

Having said that, where the first half of March is above average it does make a below average month unlikely. Although if the second half of this month mirrored 1975 then we would get to around 5.3 at the lowest. Unless a colder N'ly / NE'ly setup persisted throughout the second half then this is unlikely, so I'd say that around the 6*C mark is the likely landing zone now going by the models, although sub 6*C does remain a possibility if the GFS verifies. We may get a March that is below the 1971-00 mean but still above the 61-90 mean. Surely a month that falls in between each set of long term averages is an average month overall - well it certainly is in my book.

[chionomaniac]

Hadley CET now upto 6.6ºC. I reckon this may rise another 0.1 or 0.2º before it starts to drop next week. If it stays cooler than average as predicted then it could drop below 6.0ºC around Easter.

[Weather-history]

. We may get a March that is below the 1971-00 mean but still above the 61-90 mean. Surely a month that falls in between each set of long term averages is an average month overall - well it certainly is in my book.

The one gripe I have about still using 1961-90 figures is that it is 18 years old now, thats 18 years of data that has flowed under the bridge and to me its becoming increasingly archaic.

[Scorcher]

Marches where the second half had a colder CET value than the first half since World War 2:

1952, 1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1991, 2000, 2007.

That is interesting, more than I thought. There weren't too many in the 90s though and it appears that it is becoming less common. This month has a decent chance but we still can't really say what the last week is going to produce.

[stewfox]

Hadley CET now upto 6.6ºC. I reckon this may rise another 0.1 or 0.2º before it starts to drop next week. If it stays cooler than average as predicted then it could drop below 6.0ºC around Easter.

yep about 6.8 by sunday then a drop early next week, no one wants to forcast too much re cold over Easter but its likely to drop back to around 6 or 6.1 (each additional day of course by then having less impact on the average)

End of month with a general warming (not too much) its going to have a few days to pick up a bit and come out at 6.4

Sticking my kneck out but going for 6.4

Cant see 70f being reached for March in fact i say nothing above 62f until we hit April

Edited March 14, 2008 by stewfox

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is always for the best way of comparing long term averages significant at least in my view to compare a month or season to both the 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, as it puts into perspective the cold 60s and the run of largely cold winters from 77-87, and the warm 1990s as well. In my view a month that falls in the range between the 71-00 and 61-90 average is still an average month or average season to me. Months like Dec 2007, Aug 2006, Aug 2005, Dec 2003 are average months in my books, and the winters of 2000-01 and 2005-06 are average seasons in my books too. Many people may say that summer 2007 was a cool one, it was cooler compared to recent years but when you look at the bigger picture it was by no means a cool summer overall and by the statistical longer term average standards it was only marginally cooler than average overall.

When one looks at the standards set in the CET since 1997, it is the truth that there have only been two occasions when a month has recorded a CET a full degree or more below the "cooler" 1961-90 average, December 2001 and October 2003, although October is the month that distorts this fact as it cooled 0.2*C from 61-90 to 71-00. March 2006 couldn't fall 1*C below the cooler 61-90 mean, despite the CET still only just above 3*C as late as the 23rd. July 2007 couldn't do it either, despite no hot days at any time in the month. There have actually been no cold seasons at all either since 1996 either, the summers of 1998 and 2007 could only fall less than 0.2*C below the 1961-90 mean. The best we have ever come towards any cold seasons since 1996 has been in the winters of 2000-01 and 2005-06, which both had a below average mid-December to mid-March period at 3.83*C and 3.77*C respectively, although even this was not particularly cold and no more than 0.3*C below the 1961-90 average.

We have now well and truly broken the record for the longest interval between very cold winter months with a sub 2*C CET, (Feb 1991 last one, 17 years and counting) and we have also well and truly broken the record for the longest interval between cold winter months with a sub 3*C CET (Jan 1997 last one, 11 years and counting). I am not entirely sure about this one, I would be grateful if Kevin B can help here, but I am almost certain that we have also now set a third new record, for the longest interval between months with a sub 3.5 CET (last one Jan 2001, 7 years and counting?)

I have mentioned this a number of times before that until we see a return to below average "seasons" and months that record a CET a full degree or more below the 1961-90 average, and also a return to recording an annual CET below 10*C, I hate to say that we will never see a truly cold winter, and that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the christmas pudding, and that getting anything better than this or anything like 1995-96 would be the equivalent of a 47/63 type occurrence in the christmas pudding.

[damianslaw]

Nearing the mid point of the month and at this stage going by the models a good chance that the month will turn out to be at least 'average', however, it won't be until this time next week that anyone can begin to have any confidence in guessing what the actual values will be. As 2006 showed, the last week of March can deliver very mild conditions and could easily scupper chances of recording a average, below average month, however at this stage I remain optimistic that at least an average CET will be recorded.

Incidentally, though not keeping a record, but having glanced at the maximum temp value for each day this month, it would appear that such figures were beaten on many a day in February, could well be that the absolute recorded maximum temp for March is lower than the 18 degree value for February.

[Scorcher]

Incidentally, though not keeping a record, but having glanced at the maximum temp value for each day this month, it would appear that such figures were beaten on many a day in February, could well be that the absolute recorded maximum temp for March is lower than the 18 degree value for February.

It often doesn't get higher than 18C in March, I think that is more a reflection on how exceptional February was rather than how cool March has been.

[Stu_London]

Based on the 06z run we a looking at an impressive cold spell over the holiday period (for late March) with some very low minima and temps struglling during the day also.

The 06z (which has remarkable ensemble agreement for weather of this type) would see the CET down to around 4.9C by the 26th March. Hints of a big warm up after this date on the operational, however most members stay cold and the ensemble mean never gets above average.

Anyone sitting on a guess around 5.5C should be fairly happy now

[kold weather]

Indeed this is looking like quite an impressive cold shot. Still time for a downgrade but pretty strong agreement for at least a 7 day period of decently below average from Tuesday onwards...but the mins are looking like they are going to be decently below average for the time of year. Looks like this March could well come in 1C below normal or maybe even more if the cold can last long enough!

[Duncan McAlister]

The 18z gives a March CET of 4.5C! Even adding a degree to that, allowing for GFS cold-bias, would give a pretty impressive total. Coldest month of the year so far all to play for IMO, but coldest month of the winter is most likely out of reach (4.9C to beat).

[North-Easterly Blast]

Due to a mild night last night and a rather warm day yesterday the CET up to the 15th on Philip's site is 6.9*C, which will make it that for the first half. Like some people are saying I will correct them and say this March is almost certainly not going to be as cold as 2006 (4.9*C). The second half of March 1969 had a CET of 3.3*C, although this was identical to the first half. After an above average first half of March I cannot see the second half being as cold as 1969, so realistically I think now a 5.5*C figure is the coldest we will get now, and even that would take an increasingly cold spell by late March standards and nothing significantly warm in the closing days. There however does look a good chance now of a below average 1971-00 March, and 5.5 to 6.0 looks the likely landing zone now, so therefore that would make the month a close to average 1961-90 March.

[Weather-history]

Marches colder than the previous January for the CET

1983, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1969, 1962, 1949, 1944, 1937, 1932, 1930, 1925, 1924, 1916, 1906, 1900, 1898, 1888, 1883, 1877, 1875, 1869, 1866, 1853, 1846, 1845, 1840, 1837, 1804, 1796, 1788, 1786, 1785, 1783, 1782, 1770, 1762, 1748, 1747, 1737, 1733, 1724, 1721, 1720, 1700, 1696, 1682, 1676, 1674

We are due another statistically, could be this year?