Earthquake!

[wysiwyg]

I know the Yanks caused earthquakes in 'stable regions' by pumping redundant nerve gas in to those areas (leading to the interest in 'lubricating' the San Andreas fault to allow lots of teensy weensy quakes instead of enduring the mother of all quakes). If we have warmed the average temp of the surface of the globe then surely everything will expand?

How deep does this effect percolates and what of the differential expansion rates of different depths/rock types? I know it's only basic physics but surely it's sound???

It is sound physics GW and thermal expansion is a known contributor to erosion and landslides on mountain slopes. As for in the bedrock I'm not so sure.

you can model thermal expansion in 1 dimension based on the equation

dL = alpha. dT. L

Where dL is change in length, dT is change in temperature and alpha is the thermal expansion coefficient of the material.

For concrete it is 12 x 10e-6/Kelvin

For glass (silicon dioxide, sandstone ) it is 8.5 x 10e-6/Kelvin (both at 20deg C)

Therefore, a slab of concrete 100km wide will expand about 1.2 metres for a 1 deg C (K) rise in its temperature, Sandstone about 85cm so the numbers are not insignificant.

What makes your theory a little unlikely is the time it would take for a sustained 1 deg C rise to propogate down to significant levels below the surface so as to affect geophysical features.

Hope this helps

Wysi

[PersianPaladin]

There is no evidence whatsoever that increased atmospheric warmth exarcebates seismic activity.

[wysiwyg]

There is no evidence whatsoever that increased atmospheric warmth exarcebates seismic activity.

Precisely and the theory doesn't really support it either.

[PersianPaladin]

Apparently an old fault zone (that has been dormant for hundreds of millions of years) is to blame for the quake: -

http://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=6226

Shame that there isnt more info on this though.

Edited February 27, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[summer blizzard]

Apparently an old fault zone (that has been dormant for hundreds of millions of years) is to blame for the quake: -

http://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=6226

Shame that there isnt more info on this though.

Thats interesting, though if it is indeed 'waking up', should we not expect more earthquakes from this???

Also, i hav'nt looked in detail, but there is a chain of volcanoes extending north through Italy and France (most dormant), and there are aslo plenty of faultlines running through England, so it strikes me that at some point in the future, if these faults became active, they could form an entrenched plate, similar in size to the Carribean, what do you guys think??

It also strikes me that it could be related to magma movement deep underground, possibly pushing against a weak point.

Edited February 27, 2008 by summer blizzard

[Roger J Smith]

In this particular case, I'm speculating that the earthquake may be related to the weather, in part due to large pressure falls and rises during the previous 24 hours over northern Britain, and perhaps more significant, the earthquake occurred around low tide after a day of strong westerly winds which may have driven more water than usual away from the east coast of England, thus allowing the crustal formations to shake at some critical point, due to the lower than average downward pressure of sea water on part of the formation over a period of several hours.

In another thread, I discussed how the weather system in question was a large-scale energy formation within a solar system magnetic field sector, related to Saturn, and I've often wondered if the earth occasionally runs into gravitational waves that are focussed in these sectors or near their boundaries. The earth's Moon is also a clear player in earthquakes, I believe that in more significant earthquake zones, the timing of major quakes has coincided with full or new moon considerably more often than at random.

The bottom line is that weather and tidal changes that are larger than average may allow pent-up stresses in the crust to release, although I would certainly suspect that the cause and effect is more statistical than precise. There would be cases of large earthquakes that have occurred at quiet times in both the weather and the lunar phases, but statistically I think there is a correlation. In this case, the Moon was far removed from alignment, being almost at third quarter (between full and new moon) but in this case I'm looking more at solar system field sectors as a possible contributing factor. I don't visualize these as very massive waves in the space environment, more like the subtle waves that are left behind long after a large ship has sailed past. If you've ever stood on a shore-line watching a large ship in the distance, you may have noticed these waves lapping onto the shoreline, sometimes rather aggressively for a few minutes. It is that sort of effect that the earth must encounter quite frequently, and with the delicately balanced crustal layers in some parts of the world (earthquake zones), the situation is something like driving an old and decrepit car down a bumpy lane, everything may hold together and just creak a lot, or something may jar loose. Modelling that would be difficult if not impossible but you would know that a car driving down a smooth road would not be at such high risk.

[mackerel sky]

Apparently an old fault zone (that has been dormant for hundreds of millions of years) is to blame for the quake: -

http://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=6226

Shame that there isnt more info on this though.

Interestingly enough it sits aside a high velocity anomaly in the mid-lower crust. There are concealed granites, like the Market Weighton block in the upper crust and some inferred around the Wash. I need to have a proper look at it as the resolution of the tomographic model drops off in that area.

Edited February 27, 2008 by mackerel sky

[Cookie]

very interesting post roger.

feeling a bit left out, I didn't feel anything

[PersianPaladin]

In this particular case, I'm speculating that the earthquake may be related to the weather, in part due to large pressure falls and rises during the previous 24 hours over northern Britain, and perhaps more significant, the earthquake occurred around low tide after a day of strong westerly winds which may have driven more water than usual away from the east coast of England, thus allowing the crustal formations to shake at some critical point, due to the lower than average downward pressure of sea water on part of the formation over a period of several hours.

In another thread, I discussed how the weather system in question was a large-scale energy formation within a solar system magnetic field sector, related to Saturn, and I've often wondered if the earth occasionally runs into gravitational waves that are focussed in these sectors or near their boundaries. The earth's Moon is also a clear player in earthquakes, I believe that in more significant earthquake zones, the timing of major quakes has coincided with full or new moon considerably more often than at random.

The bottom line is that weather and tidal changes that are larger than average may allow pent-up stresses in the crust to release, although I would certainly suspect that the cause and effect is more statistical than precise. There would be cases of large earthquakes that have occurred at quiet times in both the weather and the lunar phases, but statistically I think there is a correlation. In this case, the Moon was far removed from alignment, being almost at third quarter (between full and new moon) but in this case I'm looking more at solar system field sectors as a possible contributing factor. I don't visualize these as very massive waves in the space environment, more like the subtle waves that are left behind long after a large ship has sailed past. If you've ever stood on a shore-line watching a large ship in the distance, you may have noticed these waves lapping onto the shoreline, sometimes rather aggressively for a few minutes. It is that sort of effect that the earth must encounter quite frequently, and with the delicately balanced crustal layers in some parts of the world (earthquake zones), the situation is something like driving an old and decrepit car down a bumpy lane, everything may hold together and just creak a lot, or something may jar loose. Modelling that would be difficult if not impossible but you would know that a car driving down a smooth road would not be at such high risk.

The moons affect on this planet, as I stated before in a thread a while back (with scientific references) is marginal; in terms of the gravitional waves rippling on top of the atmosphere and having a small affect on weather circulations IF the main internal drivers (e.g. upper jet flows, ENSO events, tropical forcings, etc) are going through a less intensive phase. Tidal influences are a combination of the sun and the moon; and this may affect the degree of upwellings in ENSO events; although it is a complex feedback process.

With regard to the gravitional wave affect past the atmosphere and into the lithosphere...I suspect any influencing of the moon will be over-rided by the powerful internal convection currents that exist near the mantle.

So with respect....I am sceptical of your assertions.

[Schnee]

This is just sad.....

Ebay add

Edited February 27, 2008 by Stelmer

[Cookie]

I found better

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I'm pretty sure I was awake at the time and I didn't feel anything, i'm not sure though I could have fell asleep around that time.

Pretty gutted I didn't feel it

[Gray-Wolf]

The moons affect on this planet, as I stated before in a thread a while back (with scientific references) is marginal; in terms of the gravitional waves rippling on top of the atmosphere and having a small affect on weather circulations IF the main internal drivers (e.g. upper jet flows, ENSO events, tropical forcings, etc) are going through a less intensive phase. Tidal influences are a combination of the sun and the moon; and this may affect the degree of upwellings in ENSO events; although it is a complex feedback process.

With regard to the gravitional wave affect past the atmosphere and into the lithosphere...I suspect any influencing of the moon will be over-rided by the powerful internal convection currents that exist near the mantle.

So with respect....I am sceptical of your assertions.

I remember sitting down on Roker beach in 84' with my brother, he was visiting me at Sunderland Poly,when a shower set in. We sought refuge below an overhang until we noticed the soils falling on our heads. We could only summise that the tonnage of water being added to the ground above by the shower was responsible.

Don't underestimate the raw power of something you percieve as 'small' in it's impacts P.P.

[Roger J Smith]

PP, I am beginning to think some people on NW are in an advanced state of denial, holding on to that point of view after repeated demonstrations that it is far from true. The Moon is an active player in the complex weather machine, and as I've said on numerous occasions, not the chief driving force but one of several. It's too bad we can't arrange for it to disappear for a year or two, that would quickly prove my point. I must confess to an extreme exasperation at this point in my work, when so many major storms occur at the full and new moon, northern and southern max, and yet time after time I hear this tired and bland statement of denial. I suppose in this world, many obvious things are too difficult to see, although people "know" that the ice caps are about to melt. Strange, but true. After today, I do not plan to debate this point again, I must accept that most of the people who will accept this new theory are either elsewhere or not born yet.

But with earthquakes, I think you will find that there is a lot of discussion of the Moon's considerable effects on the crust as well as the oceans. This is an area not as controversial as my weather-related research. You will recall that the great earthquake of Dec 26, 2004 with the massive tsunami occurred at full moon. Several other major earthquakes in the past have happened right at full or new moon, I don't have the dates at hand but from memory, there was one in Turkey in 1922 and I think the one in Reggio di Calabria in 1908.

I know how to perform tests of randomness, so don't run that past me. But more to the point, I think that people who study earthquakes and volcanic activity as their vocation (not including me) have speculated about the role of the lunar tidal forces on the earth's crust.

[wysiwyg]

84 - it was probably the earthquake GW

[Gray-Wolf]

PP, I am beginning to think some people on NW are in an advanced state of denial, holding on to that point of view after repeated demonstrations that it is far from true. The Moon is an active player in the complex weather machine, and as I've said on numerous occasions, not the chief driving force but one of several. It's too bad we can't arrange for it to disappear for a year or two, that would quickly prove my point. I must confess to an extreme exasperation at this point in my work, when so many major storms occur at the full and new moon, northern and southern max, and yet time after time I hear this tired and bland statement of denial. I suppose in this world, many obvious things are too difficult to see, although people "know" that the ice caps are about to melt. Strange, but true. After today, I do not plan to debate this point again, I must accept that most of the people who will accept this new theory are either elsewhere or not born yet.

But with earthquakes, I think you will find that there is a lot of discussion of the Moon's considerable effects on the crust as well as the oceans. This is an area not as controversial as my weather-related research. You will recall that the great earthquake of Dec 26, 2004 with the massive tsunami occurred at full moon. Several other major earthquakes in the past have happened right at full or new moon, I don't have the dates at hand but from memory, there was one in Turkey in 1922 and I think the one in Reggio di Calabria in 1908.

I know how to perform tests of randomness, so don't run that past me. But more to the point, I think that people who study earthquakes and volcanic activity as their vocation (not including me) have speculated about the role of the lunar tidal forces on the earth's crust.

Do we not experience a 'grounswell' as the moon trawls overhead? If so why does P.P. insist on 'No impact'????

[wysiwyg]

But with earthquakes, I think you will find that there is a lot of discussion of the Moon's considerable effects on the crust as well as the oceans. This is an area not as controversial as my weather-related research. You will recall that the great earthquake of Dec 26, 2004 with the massive tsunami occurred at full moon. Several other major earthquakes in the past have happened right at full or new moon, I don't have the dates at hand but from memory, there was one in Turkey in 1922 and I think the one in Reggio di Calabria in 1908.

I know how to perform tests of randomness, so don't run that past me. But more to the point, I think that people who study earthquakes and volcanic activity as their vocation (not including me) have speculated about the role of the lunar tidal forces on the earth's crust.

Agreed - Every day, the moon is responsible for shifting a fair weight of water form one side of the globe to the other. The isostatic pressure variations that this causes may be small on a day-to-day basis, but this constant variation will definitely upset and stress the Earth's surface. It is reasonable in my view to expect the 'crack' to occur at a point where gravitational fields interfere to form a maximum e.g. full-moon.

[Polar Low]

This is just sad.....

Ebay add

I'm actually tempted to buy it.. pretty cool. Maybe I'm sad. B)

[PersianPaladin]

Agreed - Every day, the moon is responsible for shifting a fair weight of water form one side of the globe to the other. The isostatic pressure variations that this causes may be small on a day-to-day basis, but this constant variation will definitely upset and stress the Earth's surface. It is reasonable in my view to expect the 'crack' to occur at a point where gravitational fields interfere to form a maximum e.g. full-moon.

Thats only a part of the picture not entirely true.

Its common sense that it is not superficial surface forcing that invokes seismic activity. Roger seems to believe that the moon is a very significant forcing on both the atmosphere and lithosphere....strange that he ignored the link I posted in his thread before.

Its a coincidence that full moons coincide with storms but obviously this is not a rule because many times this does not happen.....I wonder why?

Some basic facts. The earth has more of a forcing on the moon than it on us; the tides are caused by both the sun and the moon in combination. If the affect of the moon on the atmosphere is minimal; then its going to be less on the liphosphere. True that ocean and water movement causes stresses; but we must not forget what the real driving convective processes are.

I'll wait for mackerel sky for his views.

Edited February 28, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[Roger J Smith]

All I can say is the atmospheric sciences community is showing a decided lack of responsibility, the people who can see something in my research are not professionals and it's too bad they aren't, because those who are have an unspoken and inherent bias in this area. There seems little point in my wasting further time butting heads with various people who won't take any amount of evidence into account but keep restating the positions they had before I even joined Netweather.

This is not science as I understand it. Some people can't admit when they are wrong, and the atmospheric science community is particularly plagued by this attitude. People kept challenging me to put up some theory and some forecasts, I have done that, many of the forecasts have worked out very well, and I hear nothing back from these critics, so I have to question their sincerity.

I have answered the various objections stated above on several occasions and I find this to be obstructionist at this point. Perhaps some just don't really want to know what's causing weather patterns to develop, if so, why take an interest in the subject at all?

I don't blame these minor players, I blame the scientific authorities, especially in my own country here, for deliberately creating this situation. Some people should know better, and just cannot bring themselves to do the right thing and declare a measure of validity to the research. This leaves me in a very difficult position, and I find it extremely unfair.

Not sure what else to say, really, but don't expect to see me around here very much. I am tired of the situation.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm only running with a notion but then all solids, when warmed, expand. their molecules have more energy and so move faster to the point of state change. We are only talking enths of a degree C but however small it must follow the basic lwas and expand. There is a lot of crust. However small the percentage of 'expansion' occuring when you scale it up to a continent it must add up to metre's of expansion at least?

I'll reverse that notion GW. You would need a huge temperature increase, going by such laws, to make a continent shift by metres!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Whilst I respect the views of everyone on here, perhaps are we just not trying to find a complex equation for something that is as simple as A+B=C?

The science behind earthquakes already exists. I dont know it off by hand, but i'm sure if we picked up a GCSE text book, the logical explanation is sitting right in front of our eyes.

The fact that earthquakes have pretty much existed since, well, much longer than the invention of sliced bread, then should we perhaps just not expect such things to happen as part of nature?

[disco-barry]

5.2

Thats not scraping a five.

Yes it is, 5.5 upwards is more than scraping a five.

Rubbish earthquake.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Yes it is, 5.5 upwards is more than scraping a five.

Rubbish earthquake.

Wouldnt that be scraping a 6?

[Roger J Smith]

Oh brother, now comes the onslaught of dismissive comments about earthquakes not being up to scratch. Windstorms fail to excite, snow doesn't reach desired depths, cold and heat not so good ...

You really don't want to tempt the fates so much there in the zone of sound northern thinking. God can read, you know.