April C.E.T

[Stu_London]

Err wrong thread.

Err no its not

[Gavin P]

Something around 7.8-8.0 looks likely to me. The last two or three days of the month are looking cooler/wetter again and I suspect that will just be enough to keep us under par.

Edited April 20, 2008 by Gavin P

[West is Best]

9 requires an average of about 12.8 per day from here for the rest of the month. Today, for a start, won't reach that figure. Nor come to that do I think Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday will. I have a steak that says no higher than 8.3

Yes please: I'll take you on Charlotte. If it goes above 8.3C I win back the steaks I lost last time: deal?

I reckon 9C is by no means out of the question, and above 8.5C very very possible.

Err no its not

I suspect The Pit was referring to the fact that you were posting about annual CET figures in a thread on the April CET.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I reckon 9C is definitely out of the question, it would require a significant extension to the southerly spell. Note that the early part of the warm spell has warm days but also cool nights which should keep the CET down.

8.5C is quite possible if we end up on the warm end of the range of possible outcomes. Around 8C looks most likely.

[Snowly does it]

Yes please: I'll take you on Charlotte. If it goes above 8.3C I win back the steaks I lost last time: deal?

I reckon 9C is by no means out of the question, and above 8.5C very very possible.

Deal.

*goes to make space in the freezer for more steak*

One born every minute :lol:

[West is Best]

Deal.

*goes to make space in the freezer for more steak*

One born every minute :lol:

A trifle rude there Charlotte, though I'm not betting a trifle. We all know it's starting to rise. Another 1.5C over the remaining 10 days of the month from here looks a reasonable enough bet to me.

(Do you find freezing steak wrecks it? I really don't like it with prime beef.)

Edited April 20, 2008 by La Nina

[Snowly does it]

A trifle rude there Charlotte, though I'm not betting a trifle. We all know it's starting to rise. Another 1.5C over the remaining 10 days of the month from here looks a reasonable enough bet to me.

(Do you find freezing steak wrecks it? I really don't like it with prime beef.)

Not rude, just cheeky :lol:

I don't like to freeze steak but when you keep winning it......

It needs to rise 1.6 (if today ends up at 6.8 as I suspect) for you to win, that requires an average of 11.6 every day from here on in....... so above record April levels.

[West is Best]

Not rude, just cheeky :lol:

I don't like to freeze steak but when you keep winning it......

It needs to rise 1.6 (if today ends up at 6.8 as I suspect) for you to win, that requires an average of 11.6 every day from here on in....... so above record April levels.

That's not above records for the final 1/3rd of April Charlotte, nor anything like it. We're perfectly capable of averaging 14C+ at this time of the month for a short period.

I think you have one just the one steak of late, no? Didn't that end a long long winning steak streak by yours truly?! :-)

[Snowly does it]

That's not above records for the final 1/3rd of April Charlotte, nor anything like it. We're perfectly capable of averaging 14C+ at this time of the month for a short period.

I think you have one just the one steak of late, no? Didn't that end a long long winning steak streak by yours truly?! :-)

fair point. Its not forecast though.

Hey? Wins in alternate dimensions don't count Buster.

[Mammatus]

Agree with Richard with 8.5 - 9.0C not completely out of the question, although 8.0 - 8.5C more likely.

My guestimate of 8.1C looking very good again after being only 0.1C out last month :lol:

I do feel this April will be 'another' above average month, which is quite shocking really as it's felt quite chilly. Just goes to show how much we've become used to these warm above average temperatures. It 'feel's bitterly cold, yet we're only average!

Mammatus

Edited April 20, 2008 by Mammatus

[Snowly does it]

I do feel this April will be 'another' above average month, which is quite shocking really as it's felt quite chilly. Just goes to show how much we've become used to these warm above average temperatures. It 'feel's bitterly cold, yet we're only average!

Mammatus :lol:

Have to take issue with that - it 'feels' cold because the month to date is 0.7 degrees below the 61-90 average, so it IS cold.

If we reach average (and yep, your punt looks goodish), it will be due to the very warm first 4 days and last 10 days balancing the cold middle half - cold plus warm divided by 2 = average.

[Stu_London]

I think we may struggle to get to average

A lot of runs now dip below the mean in the last 3 days of the month

My 7.7 looks OK i reckon

[SMU]

I think we may struggle to get to average

A lot of runs now dip below the mean in the last 3 days of the month

My 7.7 looks OK i reckon

Yes I think the late 7's - very Early 8's is the landing zone now- Im happy with my punt as well-

Going to be an interesting last 10 days of April- I dont think the rise will be as high as Richard highlights above- Especially if the Atlantic comes through as quick as the GFS is forecasting tonight- gioving us only 3/4 days of what I would call CET accelerator weather- the other days being just incremental increases...

S

[Nick H]

Yes but that is not the case is it - the winds have not been consistently from the Northern Quadrant for ten weeks, they have been often from those areas, hence the reason that March-Mid April is fairly well below the 71-00 average and a little less, but still below (?), the 61-90 average. What will take April above average (far from certain and probably requiring an average of 10.7 or so from here to reach average) is a Euro High and the Atlantic - and as stated above, given the first 4 days of April were well above average and the last 10 look set to be Atlantic or Euro-High dominated you have a half month of cold and a half month of mild which, unsurprisingly, look like bringing April in around the long-term average and about three degrees below last year.

Well we just had the most northerly March since 1970 and we could only get 0.2 below average, which is of course classed as near average.

It wasn't even as cold as March 2006.

Can't help but think that if we'd had those synoptics 20 years ago we'd have been looking at a much colder March, but of course we live in different times now.

Edited April 21, 2008 by Nick H

[The PIT]

Well we just had the most northerly March since 1970 and we could only get 0.2 below average, which is of course classed as near average.

It wasn't even as cold as March 2006.

Can't help but think that if we'd had those synoptics 20 years ago we'd have been looking at a much colder March, but of course we live in different times now.

Perhaps you're forgetting the very warm start to the month and we had to work the way down from that. Today will have done a given CET a push upwards and more to come. Looks like the cool down will be too late to record an average or slightly below average month. Also Hadley has the month at -0.7C not -0.2C while Climate UK has it at -0.9C

[Snowly does it]

Well we just had the most northerly March since 1970 and we could only get 0.2 below average, which is of course classed as near average.

It wasn't even as cold as March 2006.

Can't help but think that if we'd had those synoptics 20 years ago we'd have been looking at a much colder March, but of course we live in different times now.

Indeed - however the first half was cyclonic and westerly or slightly north of westerly (WNW really and sometimes NW) - blustery whic kept minima higher and slightly above average by day also - thus by the time the colder conditions kicked in it was way too high to get anywhere near March 2006 levels - which should be considered an exception, not an expectation. I'd suggest 20 years ago it 'might' have been 0.5 cooler or so - given the residual ambient warming witnessed, possibly the SSTs off the West coast nudged it up a bit, but nothing about March suggested anything like a 'cold' month - more a cool one and we were perhaps half a degree above that level - SSTs and ambient warming.

April, to the 20th, and including an exceptionally mild first 4 days has been cold by any measure.

Can anyone work out the CET average for the period 5th April to 19th April?

[West is Best]

I think you have one

Did I really write that howler? Dearie me, my standards are slipping!

I think we're heading into the 8's I'm afraid ...

[kold weather]

Yeah I think we may just get into the 8's, I think probably 8-8.2C will be the landing point, once again you may as well say average if thats the point.

As Steve and a few others have said though the CET we have around the 28th will probably be where we stay because the last few days are showing hints of being average or maybe even a little below at this stage.

[reef]

Indeed - however the first half was cyclonic and westerly or slightly north of westerly (WNW really and sometimes NW) - blustery whic kept minima higher and slightly above average by day also - thus by the time the colder conditions kicked in it was way too high to get anywhere near March 2006 levels - which should be considered an exception, not an expectation. I'd suggest 20 years ago it 'might' have been 0.5 cooler or so - given the residual ambient warming witnessed, possibly the SSTs off the West coast nudged it up a bit, but nothing about March suggested anything like a 'cold' month - more a cool one and we were perhaps half a degree above that level - SSTs and ambient warming.

April, to the 20th, and including an exceptionally mild first 4 days has been cold by any measure.

Can anyone work out the CET average for the period 5th April to 19th April?

CET - 5th to 19th April - 5.7C (15 days)

So those first 4 days are essentially responsible for the CET being over a degree higher than it otherwise would be.

[Snowly does it]

CET - 5th to 19th April - 5.7C (15 days)

So those first 4 days are essentially responsible for the CET being over a degree higher than it otherwise would be.

Excellent, thanks Reef - a fortnight of temps about 1.7 below the 61-90 average and probably 2 degrees below the 71-00. Cold in other words.

[Duncan McAlister]

And almost an exact split between above and below average - the 1st-4th well above, 5th-20th well below and 21st-30th likely to be well above.

Nothing unusual then if it ends up around average

If it makes 9C as La Nina suggests I think my hat would be making a date with Mr Salt and Mrs Pepper :

[Roger J Smith]

I'd love to see it make 9, or Canada win the next World Cup, of anything, or me out on a date with Angelina Jolie.

However, in the real world, about 8, possibly, 7.8 to 8.2 ... you can steak your life on it.

[West is Best]

If it makes 9C as La Nina suggests I think my hat would be making a date with Mr Salt and Mrs Pepper :

Before I become a laughing stock to more of the Net-weather community than normal can I just point out, for clarity, that I didn't actually suggest it would reach 9C. I said it 'was not impossible' and that it was 'not out of the question'. I suggested something near 8.5C, and bet with Charlotte we'd beat 8.3C.

Hope that's not sounding like a backtrack! We're on the up now, and how. I in turn will eat my hat if we don't get into the 8's.

Edited April 21, 2008 by La Nina

[Duncan McAlister]

Before I become a laughing stock to more of the Net-weather community than normal can I just point out, for clarity, that I didn't actually suggest it would reach 9C. I said it 'was not impossible' and that it was 'not out of the question'. I suggested something near 8.5C, and bet with Charlotte we'd beat 8.3C.

Hope that's not sounding like a backtrack! We're on the up now, and how. I in turn will eat my hat if we don't get into the 8's.

Fair enough, I did phrase that slightly wrongly. However, I'll still eat my hat :o

[Roger J Smith]

Fair enough La Nina, I knew your basic math was better than that ... to wit:

22 x 7 (and that's a bit optimistic) = 154

5 x 12 (more optimism) = 60

3 x 6 (as it appears now) = 18

232/30 = 7.7

This is about where I think it should end up, even my estimate is probably a bit high.

However, the mean temperature past two days in Calgary at same latitude as southern England, -8 C with a foot of snow on the ground, so everything's relative I guess.