April C.E.T

[summer blizzard]

GFS 6z ensembles still support a warm up from the 19th..

My current thinking is 5C to 8.8C, however i think the odds are swinging in the favour of a high 7C outcome, meaning yet another slightly below average month.

Somebody mentioned earlier that we are much cooler than this stage last year, which is correct, though can somebody tell me how we are compared to the period May 05 to April 06, because the following July was still the hottest month on record, and i suspect that period was colder than this one.

[Snowly does it]

GFS 6z ensembles still support a warm up from the 19th..

My current thinking is 5C to 8.8C, however i think the odds are swinging in the favour of a high 7C outcome, meaning yet another slightly below average month.

Somebody mentioned earlier that we are much cooler than this stage last year, which is correct, though can somebody tell me how we are compared to the period May 05 to April 06, because the following July was still the hottest month on record, and i suspect that period was colder than this one.

May 05 to April 06 was approximately 10.04

This period will beat that if April can pull off 7.4 or so.

The first 3 months of this year are much milder than the first 3 of 2006

[kold weather]

Its possible SM, the models show maybe a slightly clloser to average set-up but if we can get low pressures over our shores with some fronts its going to keep the temps surpressed esp if we can drag a easterly airflow in as well and remain on the the northern side of the lows then there is a real shot.

I'm having a hard time seeing anything other then below average presently, it would take a decent warm-up in the last 10 days of the month and the models just aren't showing that...as for 7.4C, I think its going to be close.

Edited April 13, 2008 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Could turn out to be the coolest mid-March to mid-April period since 1996

16th March-15th April 1996 CET: 5.7

16th March-12th April 2008 CET: 6.1

Edited April 13, 2008 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Seems the warm has been moved back to the last week in April and theres always a possibility it'll get moved back again as the blocking continues. Very good chance of an below average month coming up.

The overnight Lows once more leading the way which has been a familar trend of late.

[stewfox]

Chance of April CET being below Jan CET?

Has that happen before and when ?

[Weather-history]

Has that happen before and when ?

Never. January and April have had the same CET as was the case in 1696 and 1782

[Duncan McAlister]

The 06z illustrates just how difficult it's going to be to lift temperatures above average by the end of the month. It manages to lift them to 8.4, and that's with a southerly plume, temperatures over 20C and minima of 13C. It wouldn't do the first half of the month justice (especially the cold spell last weekend) if it were to end up above average. Just think folks, there's probably over 5 months of warm weather to come after April (warm meaning 'not cold'!) so I'm prepared to put up with another couple of weeks of unseasonably cool weather to get a long-awaited, significantly below average CET.

Edited April 14, 2008 by Duncan McAlister

[Thundery wintry showers]

I find it very unlikely that April will be colder than January- needs an average of about 6.5C for the rest of the month, and it's difficult to see that happening, as the upcoming patterns are easterly (not particularly cold at this time of year)- we'd need northerly sources I think for that degree of cold.

Still, if we don't get a southerly plume there's a good chance of us winding up with a below average CET.

[kold weather]

Yeah I'm thinking something in the mid 7's most likely though there is also some uncertainty about what will happen after the 21st as the GFS in the last few runs has been keen to introduce warmer air as soon as 168hrs.

[summer blizzard]

Right now i'd say 8.6C is the upper limit, with the likely outcome higher than 7.6C, so yes, i am calling for a near average CET, though i'm not sure whether it will be above or below.

[Snowyowl9]

This could well turn out to be the coldest april since 1989(6.6c) well thats what I`m thinking at the moment theres a reasonable good chance... cold again tonight.

[West is Best]

This could well turn out to be the coldest april since 1989(6.6c) well thats what I`m thinking at the moment theres a reasonable good chance... cold again tonight.

Anything below 7.4C would see us record the first 12 month sub-10C period since 2001. The fact it could be achieved without a particularly cold winter would be really something.

Don't really think we are likely to get below 7.4C, but on the other hand there's nothing very warm for a week or so.

[The PIT]

Ah well our max's are going up and our mins are going down. Net result no overall change in our average for the month. My 7.4C punt is looking good with a warm up likely during Saturday onwards. Of course this may not turn up.

Edited April 15, 2008 by The PIT

[Weather-history]

Since 1772, the first half of April colder than the second half of January

1804, 1824, 1828, 1834, 1837, 1846, 1916, 1924, 1967, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1983, 1990

Could happen again, this time around.

I think we can add 2008 to this list now.

[ukmoose]

When I drew up the April CET list, I was surprised to see anyone punting below 7 degrees - not looking a bad bet at the moment though!

I am finding it hard to remember waking up in April to so many frosts - quite sharp ones at that. Can anyone think of an April with more frosts than this one? Making up for no air frosts at all in January in this part of the world perhaps?

Moose

[Stu_London]

Anything below 7.4C would see us record the first 12 month sub-10C period since 2001. The fact it could be achieved without a particularly cold winter would be really something.

Don't really think we are likely to get below 7.4C, but on the other hand there's nothing very warm for a week or so.

Even if we don't hit this by 30th April 2008, there is a good chance it will fall in the first few days of May which were very warm in 2007.

[damianslaw]

Can someone please post where we actually with the CET. Over recent days I've seen no thread with the actual CET figure mentioned.

[LadyPakal]

Hadley:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Currently 6.9 (0)

Eden:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Currently 6.8 (-0.9)

[stewfox]

I find it very unlikely that April will be colder than January- needs an average of about 6.5C for the rest of the month, and it's difficult to see that happening, as the upcoming patterns are easterly (not particularly cold at this time of year)- we'd need northerly sources I think for that degree of cold.

Still, if we don't get a southerly plume there's a good chance of us winding up with a below average CET.

When I drew up the April CET list, I was surprised to see anyone punting below 7 degrees - not looking a bad bet at the moment though!

I am finding it hard to remember waking up in April to so many frosts - quite sharp ones at that. Can anyone think of an April with more frosts than this one? Making up for no air frosts at all in January in this part of the world perhaps?

Moose

What was the cet for the first two weeks of Jan ? April its now 6.9

With another frost this morning I assume it will go down a bit before it goes up

Im surprised we have never had a colder April then a Jan , like a 1 in 100 type thing

I guess many cold Aprils in years gone past (much colder then this one had much colder Jans)

Looking a 5 coldest Aprils from CET

1837 4.7 The January was 123rd coldest at 2.7

1701 4.7 The January was 130th coldest at 2.8

1809 5.2 The January was 86th coldest at 2.0

1782 5.2 The January was 293rd coldest at 5.2

1770 5.2 The Janurary was 190th Coldest at 3.7

10^th coldest April 1869 equal the January at 5.5

To have a cold April (top 20) I can see only 1895 had a cold Jan (ie in top 50)

[Duncan McAlister]

Look at April's average min so far, compared with January

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0801.htm

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0804.htm

[The PIT]

Well next week will be the test. CET will certainly rise but will the temps allow it to rise enough to make it an average month.

[Stu_London]

6.7C on Manley now (from www.climate-uk.com) - although front page is not updated.

We have another 3-4 days where the CET will be inclined to nudge downwards.

The last week is starting to look warmer, although it will be hard pushed to be above average (we already need to average 9.5C to hit average - this is more likely to be 12C -13C by the time the final week is upon us)

Mid 7s or slightly higher would be my very bias call at present (having punted 7.7C) with sub 10C 1 year rolling average to be missed (for now)

Well next week will be the test. CET will certainly rise but will the temps allow it to rise enough to make it an average month.

Almost certainly not - less than 5% chance I would say

[Weather-history]

Look at the mean minimum for this April (1st-15th) 2.7ºC (-1.6 degC)

Mean minimum (1st February-15th April): 2.1C (-0.9C)

[Roger J Smith]

Hey, does anyone think, if we encouraged people to drive their cars more, perhaps not tune them up very often, also have industries going 24/7 and belching out a lot of carbon dioxide, because I read somewhere that it traps heat, this might reverse this awful cooling trend and bring back the kind of weather they had in the past, like before WIB became La Nina?

Just wondering?