April C.E.T

[The PIT]

May go up a little more in the next few days. 8.1C probably be the final figure pity the cold weather didn't turn up to peg it back again.

[Weather-history]

Yes I would like to know that but I may have an idea it may of been the coldest mid-march to mid-april since 1996, Mr data would know though.

CET is now on 8.0c.

Yes it was. If you look back earlier in the thread I mentioned this.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...6628&st=187

Edited April 28, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Snowyowl9]

Yes it was. If you look back earlier in the thread I mentioned this.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...6628&st=187

Thats where I read it before thanks that`ll do for me as good as a month thats the period always use to be well known for cold and snow years ago even to april 20th, so we can more or less say this spring has certainly broke the trend of recent years for that period very noticable it`s been too this spring.

[SMU]

8.0c

S

Cmon Cmon -

Going for the Double header on the CET Competition....

S

[West is Best]

Cmon Cmon -

Going for the Double header on the CET Competition....

S

Lol! Unfortunately I think it may yet nudge upwards a touch Steve, but we'll see!

[Evening thunder]

Lol! Unfortunately I think it may yet nudge upwards a touch Steve, but we'll see!

8.2 then?

[Mammatus]

Lol! Unfortunately I think it may yet nudge upwards a touch Steve, but we'll see!

8.1C IMO

Mammatus

Edited April 28, 2008 by Mammatus

[West is Best]

8.1C IMO

Mammatus

Looking good to me!

[Lettucing Gutted]

It looks like the only chance of finishing below average is if Philip Eden uses his trademark downward revisions again.

Edited April 29, 2008 by Craig Evans

[Kentish Man]

It looks like the only chance of finishing below average is if Philip Eden uses his trademark downward revisions again.

Well Philip Eden's Climate UK site has a headline figure of 7.9C this morning so I guess they will finish up just below the 71 - 00 average of 8.1C.

However this competition uses the Hadley figures now and whatever figure comes out later today (possibly 8.1C) will be as high as it gets this month. It may edge back again tomorrow as the majority of sites in the CET zone recorded minimas between 1C and 3C last night so it will all depend on today's maxima. Landing zone is 7.9C - 8.1C with the lowest figure still possible if tonight is as cold as the GFS 00z is predicting.

[stewfox]

Well Philip Eden's Climate UK site has a headline figure of 7.9C this morning so I guess they will finish up just below the 71 - 00 average of 8.1C.

However this competition uses the Hadley figures now and whatever figure comes out later today (possibly 8.1C) will be as high as it gets this month. It may edge back again tomorrow as the majority of sites in the CET zone recorded minimas between 1C and 3C last night so it will all depend on today's maxima. Landing zone is 7.9C - 8.1C with the lowest figure still possible if tonight is as cold as the GFS 00z is predicting.

Are there any yearly league tables for this ? ie predicted monthly CET for the year

e.g 15 points spot on with a 9 ,0.1c out either way and 8 0.2 out etc ??

[Weather-history]

Looks like the third month within a year to be at least 3.0C below the same month of the previous year.

July

2006: 19.7

2007: 15.2

September

2006: 16.8

2007: 13.8

April

2007: 11.2

2008:~8.0

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looks like the third month within a year to be at least 3.0C below the same month of the previous year.

July

2006: 19.7

2007: 15.2

September

2006: 16.8

2007: 13.8

April

2007: 11.2

2008:~8.0

If April comes in at 8.0*C the rolling 12 month CET from May 07 to April 08 will be 10.05*C, 0.02*C warmer than the 12 months from May 05 to April 06. You are truly correct that three months in the past 12 months have been much in contrast to the same month of the previous year. Just a great shame we couldn't achieve that in January or February. When one looks at every month in the last 20 years, it really does stick out that January and February really have been the pits for cold weather in the last 20 years, and getting spells of below average temps and northerly / easterly outbreaks. Out of every month of the year, the biggest warming trend and biggest change in weather patterns appears to have been seen in January and February. After these two months, personally I would say that the next biggest warming trend and change in weather patterns appears to have been seen in September, since the late 1990s. Virtually every September in the last 10 years has seen spells of very warm or hot conditions and the tendency for temperatures to remain at summer levels for much of the month, instead of the traditional descent into autumn.

The big question I am asking now is it ever possible or likely that we can acheive an annual CET below 10*C ever again? Until we can show that we can record an annual CET below 10*C I cannot see where a truly cold winter is going to come from, and all I can see is that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 will likely be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the christmas pudding, as long as we continue to record persistent annual CETs above 10*C.

Edited April 29, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[Kentish Man]

Well Philip Eden's Climate UK site has a headline figure of 7.9C this morning so I guess they will finish up just below the 71 - 00 average of 8.1C.

However this competition uses the Hadley figures now and whatever figure comes out later today (possibly 8.1C) will be as high as it gets this month. It may edge back again tomorrow as the majority of sites in the CET zone recorded minimas between 1C and 3C last night so it will all depend on today's maxima. Landing zone is 7.9C - 8.1C with the lowest figure still possible if tonight is as cold as the GFS 00z is predicting.

Hadley has managed to hold at 8.0C (Apr 1 - 28) so the only doubt now is whether it remains at that figure or dips back down to 7.9C by month end.

[Weather-history]

For the third consecutive month, the Manley CET mininum is going to be below the 1971-2000 average

Manley CET mean minimum (1st Feb-28th Apr): 2.6C (-0.7C)

[Scorcher]

You are truly correct that three months in the past 12 months have been much in contrast to the same month of the previous year. Just a great shame we couldn't achieve that in January or February.

I don't really get the significance of this though- those previous 3 months were record breaking so you would have to expect a big drop the following year. The same months of the following year were also by no means considerably below average, mostly around average.

[Snowyowl9]

Hadley has managed to hold at 8.0C (Apr 1 - 28) so the only doubt now is whether it remains at that figure or dips back down to 7.9C by month end.

That is quite surprising I expected an 8.1c today so yesterday just came as averge temps...and not taking last nights low mins that GFS did show 2.5c min here even and today 2c down on yesterday`s max colder where the showers cloud came as it`s been quite sunny earlier.

7.8c may well be the final figure instead.

Surpressed temps tomorrow under lp and lots of rain/showers too.

[reef]

Hadley remains unchanged today at 8.0C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Temperatures are quite low today in the south under the rain, so its definitely looking like a 7.9C or 8.0C finish. So technically a second consecutive below average month (though realistically, we can call both March and April average).

[Optimus Prime]

After the Hadley revision something closer to 7.7c or 7.8c.

[The PIT]

Climate UK has it at 7.9C to the 30th awaiting Hadleys final figure.

[Optimus Prime]

Climate-uk has the mena minima 0.7c below average. That means 3 consequtive months well below average by night;

February 1.2c - 0.6c below 1971-2000 norm.

March 2.7c - 0.8c below

April 3.9c 0.7c below

Despite the run mean minima is still 0.2c above average so farthis year due to that remarkably warm January. I suspect May will corrent the process in an upward fashion.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Climate-uk has the mena minima 0.7c below average. That means 3 consequtive months well below average by night;

February 1.2c - 0.6c below 1971-2000 norm.

March 2.7c - 0.8c below

April 3.9c 0.7c below

Despite the run mean minima is still 0.2c above average so farthis year due to that remarkably warm January. I suspect May will corrent the process in an upward fashion.

It is probably down to the cooler waters showing up around our shores, with the cooling trend likely to continue longterm.

BFTP

[reef]

Hadley came in at 8.7C for yesterday:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008

Still unconfirmed at the moment, but we should come in at exactly 8.0C, so 0.1C below average and the coolest since 2001.

[Guest Mike W]

Hadley have it at 7.9:http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

It ends up the same on the daily tracker aswell, they have been doing it this way for quite a while now.

[reef]

Hadley have it at 7.9:http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

It ends up the same on the daily tracker aswell, they have been doing it this way for quite a while now.

Looks like 7.9C is it then. It seems there has been a slight downward correction.

So technically a second consecutive below average month, albeit only just. January is starting to look like a little out of place when compared to the rest of the last 12 months.