April C.E.T

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hey, does anyone think, if we encouraged people to drive their cars more, perhaps not tune them up very often, also have industries going 24/7 and belching out a lot of carbon dioxide, because I read somewhere that it traps heat, this might reverse this awful cooling trend and bring back the kind of weather they had in the past, like before WIB became La Nina?

Just wondering?

As a council member must be seen to roll one's eyes at that!

BFTP

Edited April 16, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kold weather]

Does look like its going to get warmer after Saturday but to what extent it will is still uncertain. Also if high pressure does build in like the ECM and the GFS then min temps could be restrained a little, which may well be a factor in perventing the CET rising enough to get average.

I'd favor a mid-high 7's return right now.

[damianslaw]

Yes the CET is going to bottom out over the next couple of days and then it looks like a rise from Sunday onwards. I'm inclined to say that an average CET is the best we can hope for i.e. anything more than 0.2 degrees above average seems unlikely.

Much will depend on nightime cloud cover next week, if we can draw in clearer air then mins will probably be held back enough to prevent any real warm CET days, although daytime maxes especially in the south look like being above appreciably above average especially where the sun shines.

[Kentish Man]

Well at the months midway point (Apr 1 - 15) Hadley today has the CET at 6.8C. Overall the next 4 days may see a further small drop eg last night's mins were generally between 0C and -1.0C in the CET area so tomorrow may see another 0.1C off the headline figure. From there a slow but steady rise looks likely.

[The PIT]

Well for us it will have taken another thumping. Max temp 9c followed by -0.9C overnight. Making it a cold A|pril day overall. Should be the last day of drops though before starting to rise later in the weekend.

[Stu_London]

Well for us it will have taken another thumping. Max temp 9c followed by -0.9C overnight. Making it a cold A|pril day overall. Should be the last day of drops though before starting to rise later in the weekend.

I still think a tenth or so could be knocked off before Sunday.

If I am right, then above average becomes almost out of reach, only a heatwave comparable to this time last year, which was unprecendented, would suffice.

[kold weather]

Not really Stu, April 2003 had a 5 day heatwave which at its peak was warmer then last years April, that didn't have ,any noteable warm days but it was consitantly well above average but April 2003 had one day with a CET mean of 16C. A few days like that would be enough along with some above average temps to get above average...

However I don't think it will happen anyways...models have daytime maxes pretty low on Saturday and the GFS has also really toned back the temps for Sunday as well now, looks about average rather then the above it was progged to be a few days ago...

Edited April 17, 2008 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Hadley CET is now at 6.7

To get to 10.0, the daily CET mean needs to be about 13.8

To get to 9.0, the daily CET mean needs to be about 11.6

To get to 8.0, the daily CET mean needs to be about 9.5

[The PIT]

Looking like some real damage could be done Next week with max progged by GFS to be around 16C and may end up even higher. So my 7.4C isn't looking to bad but depends on how soon the warm up starts. If it starts earlier it'll could well be too low again.

[eddie]

The highest final April CET achieved with a CET <= 6.8C by the 16th was 8.8C back in 1862.

I think will will probably end up somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0C though.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The highest final April CET achieved with a CET <= 6.8C by the 16th was 8.8C back in 1862.

I think will will probably end up somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0C though.

A final CET like 8C to 8.8C won't do the recent cold weather justice.

Edited April 17, 2008 by Craig Evans

[Stu_London]

A final CET like 8C to 8.8C won't do the recent cold weather justice.

true but over 8 is a long shot

[Stu_London]

true but over 8 is a long shot

:lol:

I have just done a projection to month end and it comes in at 8.1C - bang on the 71-00 average.

Anyway from http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

CET to 17/04/08 - 6.7C (-0.6C)

CET 18/04/07-17/04/08 - 10.14C

I will try to update this stat daily - we don't look like dipping under 10C during April although there is a chance we could sometime in May.

[The PIT]

Tropical at the moment here at 6.2C. So we've got suppressed day time max and high night time mins end result below average. We're now -1.9C below our average. Now if the sun fails to come out we could have another slight drop depending on the overnight low.

Looking ahead and if the GFS is right the CET is going to be getting kicked upwards quite a bit. Once again an interesting month will be hidden away.

[Stu_London]

From: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

CET - 1st to 18th April - 6.7C (-0.7C)

CET 19/04/07-18/04/08 - 10.13C

The 12 month rolling figure looks likely to be at it's lowest during the Month on or around the 25th - with a value a touch above 10.05C

[The PIT]

From: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

CET - 1st to 18th April - 6.7C (-0.7C)

CET 19/04/07-18/04/08 - 10.13C

The 12 month rolling figure looks likely to be at it's lowest during the Month on or around the 25th - with a value a touch above 10.05C

Err wrong thread.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley todays remains at 6.7C (Apr 1 -19). This will be the low point of the month with a sharp upward trend kicking off from today. This may eventually be slightly offset by a cooler snap at the end of the month according to the 06z GFS run but this is far from certain. Something around average (71 - 00) may well be the final outturn for the month

Edited April 20, 2008 by Kentish Man

[West is Best]

I'm afraid it looks as if all the good (i.e. cold) work of the first 2/3rds of the month is about to be dramatically undone. I'd be surprised looking at the models if we finish below average. The only way is up now, and it's going to be a sharp acceleration. Into the 9's by the end? By no means impossible.

Oh well let's just enjoy the start of real spring / summer!

Edited April 20, 2008 by La Nina

[Snowly does it]

I'm afraid it looks as if all the good (i.e. cold) work of the first 2/3rds of the month is about to be dramatically undone. I'd be surprised looking at the models if we finish below average. The only way is up now, and it's going to be a sharp acceleration. Into the 9's by the end? By no means impossible.

Oh well let's just enjoy the start of real spring / summer!

9 requires an average of about 12.8 per day from here for the rest of the month. Today, for a start, won't reach that figure. Nor come to that do I think Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday will. I have a steak that says no higher than 8.3

[Nick H]

It's disappointing that despite the last 10 weeks blowing consistent northwesterlies and northeasterlies, what we end up with is a February over 1deg C above the long term mean, March just below, and April probably just above.

Edited April 20, 2008 by Nick H

[Snowyowl9]

Last time april came below average was in 2001 at 7.7c there were a few sharper frosts that month to this and a few cold days much like today, still but a few warmer days also upto 13/14c here later in the month.

So thats the target to go for now.

[Snowly does it]

It's disappointing that despite the last 10 weeks blowing consistent northwesterlies and northeasterlies, what we end up with is a February over 1deg C above the long term mean, March just below, and April probably just above.

Yes but that is not the case is it - the winds have not been consistently from the Northern Quadrant for ten weeks, they have been often from those areas, hence the reason that March-Mid April is fairly well below the 71-00 average and a little less, but still below (?), the 61-90 average. What will take April above average (far from certain and probably requiring an average of 10.7 or so from here to reach average) is a Euro High and the Atlantic - and as stated above, given the first 4 days of April were well above average and the last 10 look set to be Atlantic or Euro-High dominated you have a half month of cold and a half month of mild which, unsurprisingly, look like bringing April in around the long-term average and about three degrees below last year.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, i believe the outurn will be in the high 7C's.

[Timmead]

8.4's looking good

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not much different to April 1994 as far as the CET analysis is concerned- the first three weeks were consistently on the cool side, with maritime NW'lys in the first third and NE'lys in the middle third, but it was much warmer with southerlies in the last third, a southerly plume brought temperatures up to 20C in the North East on the 29th, and as a result the mean temperature was about average.