April C.E.T

[wysiwyg]

oops late as well

9.2 please

[Great Plum]

Late for me too... but 8.6 please...

[memories of 63]

I've just realised it's 1 April damn. 6.3C please

[Devon-Nelly]

Oops a little late with mine, but i think April will be a changable month, am about to post my forecast blog on the month if anyone's intrested, my luck punt for the month is going to be 8.7c please.

[J10]

I'll go for 8.5c .

[Mark H]

A late 8.7 for me please.

[ukmoose]

The final (?) April CET list is here.

41 6.0C: Timbo

34 6.2C: SLEETY

128 6.3C: memories of 63

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

63 6.8C: snowingman

81 6.9C: Terminal Moraine

88 7.0C: Polar Continental

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

97 7.3C: stewfox

13 7.4C: The PIT

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

38 7.6C: Kentish Man

59 7.6C: Jonnie G

77 7.6C: BARRY

110 7.6C: DR Hosking

36 7.7C: sundog

40 7.7C: Stu London

51 7.7C: eddie

103 7.7C: Thundery Wintry

109 7.7C: Hiya

112 7.7C: Snowyowl9

29 7.8C: richarddx7

87 7.8C: The calm before

96 7.8C: Rollo

111 7.8C: Matty M

30 7.9C: snowsure

43 7.9C: Norrance

46 7.9C: Duncan McAlister

49 7.9C: davehsug

50 7.9C: reef

67 7.9C: beng

68 7.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

76 7.9C: kold weather

83 7.9C: LadyPakal

105 7.9C: phil n.warks

122 7.9C: mufc

31 8.0C: Polar Gael

61 8.0C: silpknotsam

71 8.0C: Cymru

92 8.0C: Steve Murr

99 8.0C: Mr Maunder

108 8.0C: Megamoonflake

37 8.1C: ukmoose

58 8.1C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

118 8.1C: Paul B

119 8.1C: Mammatus

16 8.2C: StormMad26

54 8.2C:Michael Prys-Rob

74 8.2C: damianslaw

80 8.2C: azores92

100 8.2C: mountain shadow

113 8.2C: SNOW-MAN2006

17 8.3C: SteveB

66 8.3C: Mr Data

73 8.3C: IRON-BRU

123 8.3C: Glacier Point

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

39 8.5C: osmposm

52 8.5C: Potent Gust

70 8.5C: ghrud

79 8.5C: Calrissian

90 8.5C: Jack Wales

125 8.5C: Joneseye

130 8.5C: JACKONE

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

60 8.6C: Stargazer

127 8.6C: Great Plum

1 8.7C: mark bayley

69 8.7C: DAVID SNOW

91 8.7C: Bottesford

106 8.7C: James M

129 8.7C: Devon-Nelly

131 8.7C: Mark H

27 8.8C: chionomaniac

33 8.8C: Anti-Mild

45 8.8C: Somerset Squall

101 8.8C: mk13

124 8.8C: Stratos Ferric

25 8.9C: Snooz

72 8.9C: RedShift

104 8.9C: summer blizzard

3 9.0C: calum

56 9.0C: jimben

75 9.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

35 9.1C: Don

78 9.1C: shuggee

65 9.2C: derby4life

126 9.2C: wysiwig

26 9.4C: La Nina

115 9.5C: Nick H

120 9.6C: Vince

62 9.7C: Roger J Smith

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

121 10.0C: northeast

28 10.1C: Mike W

82 11.5C: Craig Evans

A total of 97 entries this month (7 of them late - penalty points apply guys). 7.9 is the most popular guess with 11 entries. Taking the 71 - 2000 average as 8.1, 42 entries have come in below that figure; 4 spot on and 51 above.

Well done to those who got the March CET spot on.

Moose

[acbrixton]

Late again..my guess is 7.4.

regards

ACB

[ukmoose]

41 6.0C: Timbo

34 6.2C: SLEETY

128 6.3C: memories of 63

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

63 6.8C: snowingman

81 6.9C: Terminal Moraine

88 7.0C: Polar Continental

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

97 7.3C: stewfox

13 7.4C: The PIT

133 7.4C:acbrixton

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

38 7.6C: Kentish Man

59 7.6C: Jonnie G

77 7.6C: BARRY

110 7.6C: DR Hosking

36 7.7C: sundog

40 7.7C: Stu London

51 7.7C: eddie

103 7.7C: Thundery Wintry

109 7.7C: Hiya

112 7.7C: Snowyowl9

29 7.8C: richarddx7

87 7.8C: The calm before

96 7.8C: Rollo

111 7.8C: Matty M

30 7.9C: snowsure

43 7.9C: Norrance

46 7.9C: Duncan McAlister

49 7.9C: davehsug

50 7.9C: reef

67 7.9C: beng

68 7.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

76 7.9C: kold weather

83 7.9C: LadyPakal

105 7.9C: phil n.warks

122 7.9C: mufc

31 8.0C: Polar Gael

61 8.0C: silpknotsam

71 8.0C: Cymru

92 8.0C: Steve Murr

99 8.0C: Mr Maunder

108 8.0C: Megamoonflake

37 8.1C: ukmoose

58 8.1C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

118 8.1C: Paul B

119 8.1C: Mammatus

16 8.2C: StormMad26

54 8.2C:Michael Prys-Rob

74 8.2C: damianslaw

80 8.2C: azores92

100 8.2C: mountain shadow

113 8.2C: SNOW-MAN2006

17 8.3C: SteveB

66 8.3C: Mr Data

73 8.3C: IRON-BRU

123 8.3C: Glacier Point

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

39 8.5C: osmposm

52 8.5C: Potent Gust

70 8.5C: ghrud

79 8.5C: Calrissian

90 8.5C: Jack Wales

125 8.5C: Joneseye

130 8.5C: JACKONE

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

60 8.6C: Stargazer

127 8.6C: Great Plum

1 8.7C: mark bayley

69 8.7C: DAVID SNOW

91 8.7C: Bottesford

106 8.7C: James M

129 8.7C: Devon-Nelly

131 8.7C: Mark H

27 8.8C: chionomaniac

33 8.8C: Anti-Mild

45 8.8C: Somerset Squall

101 8.8C: mk13

124 8.8C: Stratos Ferric

25 8.9C: Snooz

72 8.9C: RedShift

104 8.9C: summer blizzard

3 9.0C: calum

56 9.0C: jimben

75 9.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

35 9.1C: Don

78 9.1C: shuggee

65 9.2C: derby4life

126 9.2C: wysiwig

26 9.4C: La Nina

115 9.5C: Nick H

120 9.6C: Vince

62 9.7C: Roger J Smith

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

121 10.0C: northeast

28 10.1C: Mike W

82 11.5C: Craig Evans

One more late entry.

Moose

41 6.0C: Timbo

34 6.2C: SLEETY

128 6.3C: memories of 63

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

63 6.8C: snowingman

81 6.9C: Terminal Moraine

88 7.0C: Polar Continental

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

97 7.3C: stewfox

13 7.4C: The PIT

133 7.4C:acbrixton

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

38 7.6C: Kentish Man

59 7.6C: Jonnie G

77 7.6C: BARRY

110 7.6C: DR Hosking

36 7.7C: sundog

40 7.7C: Stu London

51 7.7C: eddie

103 7.7C: Thundery Wintry

109 7.7C: Hiya

112 7.7C: Snowyowl9

29 7.8C: richarddx7

87 7.8C: The calm before

96 7.8C: Rollo

111 7.8C: Matty M

30 7.9C: snowsure

43 7.9C: Norrance

46 7.9C: Duncan McAlister

49 7.9C: davehsug

50 7.9C: reef

67 7.9C: beng

68 7.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

76 7.9C: kold weather

83 7.9C: LadyPakal

105 7.9C: phil n.warks

122 7.9C: mufc

31 8.0C: Polar Gael

61 8.0C: silpknotsam

71 8.0C: Cymru

92 8.0C: Steve Murr

99 8.0C: Mr Maunder

108 8.0C: Megamoonflake

37 8.1C: ukmoose

58 8.1C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

118 8.1C: Paul B

119 8.1C: Mammatus

16 8.2C: StormMad26

54 8.2C:Michael Prys-Rob

74 8.2C: damianslaw

80 8.2C: azores92

100 8.2C: mountain shadow

113 8.2C: SNOW-MAN2006

17 8.3C: SteveB

66 8.3C: Mr Data

73 8.3C: IRON-BRU

123 8.3C: Glacier Point

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

39 8.5C: osmposm

52 8.5C: Potent Gust

70 8.5C: ghrud

79 8.5C: Calrissian

90 8.5C: Jack Wales

125 8.5C: Joneseye

130 8.5C: JACKONE

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

60 8.6C: Stargazer

127 8.6C: Great Plum

1 8.7C: mark bayley

69 8.7C: DAVID SNOW

91 8.7C: Bottesford

106 8.7C: James M

129 8.7C: Devon-Nelly

131 8.7C: Mark H

27 8.8C: chionomaniac

33 8.8C: Anti-Mild

45 8.8C: Somerset Squall

101 8.8C: mk13

124 8.8C: Stratos Ferric

25 8.9C: Snooz

72 8.9C: RedShift

104 8.9C: summer blizzard

3 9.0C: calum

56 9.0C: jimben

75 9.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

35 9.1C: Don

78 9.1C: shuggee

65 9.2C: derby4life

126 9.2C: wysiwig

26 9.4C: La Nina

115 9.5C: Nick H

120 9.6C: Vince

62 9.7C: Roger J Smith

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

121 10.0C: northeast

28 10.1C: Mike W

82 11.5C: Craig Evans

Sorry about that - just trying to make the late entries clear - it's a bind being colour blind at times!

Moose

Edited April 2, 2008 by ukmoose

[kold weather]

Well early days in the first 6 days look like they are going to come in above average but from then on for at least the next 5 days we look like coming in below average, maybe alot depending on the mins of course, we are still early enough in the month where the CET min can come in decently below 0C in a slack airflow which looks like being the case and with maxes probably getting no higher then 10C (and places further north in the CET zone won't be that high so a CET average of 5C for several days is looking more than possible which will drag the CET back below average I'd have thought.

[Snowly does it]

Well early days in the first 6 days look like they are going to come in above average but from then on for at least the next 5 days we look like coming in below average, maybe alot depending on the mins of course, we are still early enough in the month where the CET min can come in decently below 0C in a slack airflow which looks like being the case and with maxes probably getting no higher then 10C (and places further north in the CET zone won't be that high so a CET average of 5C for several days is looking more than possible which will drag the CET back below average I'd have thought.

If the first 4 days are 10, the next 4 need to be 6.6 to balance - its very likely we will be average by the 8th and well below if the cold snap lasts by mid month from whence who knows.

[SP1986]

:lol: I'm going to be near the bottom of the table after that prediction. It looks like being totally the opposite of my prediction. In fact April CET, if it plays out as it is currently being shown could be significantly below average.

[chionomaniac]

:lol: I'm going to be near the bottom of the table after that prediction. It looks like being totally the opposite of my prediction. In fact April CET, if it plays out as it is currently being shown could be significantly below average.

Though you can feel good about your prediction for a few days! Hadley CET is 10.2ºC today.

[James M]

Though you can feel good about your prediction for a few days! Hadley CET is 10.2ºC today.

Where can you see it at the moment?

[Potent Gust]

I am even concerned that my 8.5c may be too high looking at the latest charts :lol:

[kold weather]

Still early days yet, we could yet see a 7 day heatwave at the end of the month if we have a low pressure stick to our SW long enough without coming NE to drag up the warmer air, the 12z breifly tries that but soon pushes it away.

Whilst I'm not suggesting that will be the case its to show that we are still easily early enough for a sizeable correction.

If the GFS is even close with regards to the mins early next week we are going to see a very large downward movement from 10.2C today...

[chionomaniac]

Where can you see it at the moment?

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

You can find of most of the CET stats from the second link.

c

[James M]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

You can find of most of the CET stats from the second link.

c

Thanks very much.

[chionomaniac]

Glorious day here today. Hadley CET upto 10.6ºC. Another rise tomorrow when todays weather is accounted for and then the inevitable drop will occur.

[eddie]

The Hadley CET is now 10.5C which is very much above average. Only 15 Aprils since 1772 have been warmer by this point in the month (admittedly only 4 days in!).

Good job the models are showing cold because otherwise I would be thinking that another record breaker was on the way.

[Stu_London]

The Hadley CET is now 10.5C which is very much above average. Only 15 Aprils since 1772 have been warmer by this point in the month (admittedly only 4 days in!).

Good job the models are showing cold because otherwise I would be thinking that another record breaker was on the way.

Should be at least 6/7 falling days from here on in which would bring us back to average values - In fact, the usual early spring low humidity will lead to some particularly low minima and the CET could fall to somewhere between 6.0C and 7.0C by the 12th.

Thereafter the signal is not so clear but one would expect a gradual rise towards the end of the month.

One thing is for sure - we won't be seeing 11.2C in 2008.

[reef]

Its looking like the first half of the month could be quite cold. If the temperatures on the GFS 12z were to occur as progged then we'd be sitting at 5.6C by the 21st - a degree below what January finished!

Obviously this wont happen (or at least Id be very suprised if it did), but it would certainly be breaking the trend of no cold Aprils since 1989 with style and comfortably take the running 12 month CET below 10C along with it.

Very interesting stuff.

[eddie]

Its looking like the first half of the month could be quite cold. If the temperatures on the GFS 12z were to occur as progged then we'd be sitting at 5.6C by the 21st - a degree below what January finished!

Obviously this wont happen (or at least Id be very suprised if it did), but it would certainly be breaking the trend of no cold Aprils since 1989 with style and comfortably take the running 12 month CET below 10C along with it.

Very interesting stuff.

I think the GFS is probably overdoing those minima but if we do indeed reach 5.6C by the 21st it would be the coldest consecutive 17 days in April since the period ending 17th April 1986.

[reef]

I think the GFS is probably overdoing those minima but if we do indeed reach 5.6C by the 21st it would be the coldest consecutive 17 days in April since the period ending 17th April 1986.

Yes, cold periods in April have been at a premium in the last 20 years and we havent had a cold one since 1989. April 1986 was remarkable though, we didnt reach 10C until the 20th here. The period 1st-19th averaged a chilly 4.1C.

[Optimus Prime]

CET has really tummbled according to Metcheck. Was 10.3c yesterday, now 9.0c (0.9c above average) An unusually cold April day today with some areas maxing at around 3c only in the far south east.

Tomorrow looks much less cold with maxes upto 10c in one or two places. Still 2c below normal. Tuesday morning looks very cold with mins widely around -3c to possibly a low of -7c in some rural areas.

Period 6th-10th looks to average 4.4c so by the 20th the CET should be at 7.2c.