August CET

[summer blizzard]

Well after the dissapointment of June and July in terms of summer weather, i expect an improvement during August, so 16.7C, 0.5C above average is my prediction.

[Nick H]

17th of the month - a new record?

[Optimus Prime]

17th of the month - a new record?

I think so, the earliest before was about the 20th from which the record holder was SB, so in effect he's broken his own record, set by himself.

Initially and not finally I'm going for -2.1c 18.3c below average. Summer will average coldest on record at about 9.3c.

[SP1986]

No real respite in the cold summer we've endured (outside of London)

15.7C

[Stu_London]

15.5C is an early punt that may be chopped and changed until the last minute

I also predict that summer blizzard will open the September CET thread on the 18th August

[snowsure]

I see no link between the current lack of sun spots and the current lack of summer.

15.8*C

Glad the thread has been opened early this month; school holidays start today and there is no internet access where my holiday will be taken.

[Gavin P]

A horrible month. Frequent southerly tracking lows with lots of northern blocking. A good chance of local flooding in the south. The final week becomes warm and sunny as high pressure builds in lifting temperatures into the mid 20's, but that won't be enough to rescue a poor month and a poor summer.

CET: 14.9 Rainfall: 210% Sunshine: 90%

[Polar Gael]

16.0C for me please.

[kold weather]

Hard to see any real change in the current set-up, looks pretty well established so will have to go along with the general idea of close to average, lets say 15.8C

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like the weather may become more blocked into August and the run of cool Augusts will eventually end, for that reason I'm going for;

18.9c equal to 1997.

[Guest Mike W]

17.7, even though higher than this more likely.

[James M]

After my last guess which was way out, I'll go for nearer to average: 16.5°C

[Thundery wintry showers]

My earlier hunch was for August to be warm and sunny after the cool cloudy July (though I didn't expect July to be quite as dull or wet as it's been so far!)

Thus my early punt is 17.4

This is based only on a hunch though and I have a feeling I'll end up revising that downwards nearer the time.

[Snowly does it]

August = brutal

14.2

[chionomaniac]

August similar to this month. I'll go for 15.6ºC.

[richarddx7]

CET 14.5c for me.

[SteveB]

I am going to go with 15.9c.

Another below average summer month. If it is the case then we may well be looking at getting back to pre 90's summers. Now all we need is the Winters to do the same.

[Devon-Nelly]

I think a very warm, but frequently thundery August could be on the cards, with a possible hot or even very hot spell during the 1st week.

my early punt will be 17.1c

[osmposm]

My pointlessly-detailed CET mean stats for August:

1971-2000 - 16.2

1961-1990 - 15.8

10 yr running mean - 16.60; Adjusted 10 yr (excl highest 1 & lowest 1) - 16.53

20 yr running mean - 16.67; Adjusted 20 yr (excl highest 2 & lowest 2) - 16.55

30 yr running mean - 16.33; Adjusted 30 yr (excl highest 3 & lowest 3) - 16.28

The three hottest Augusts of the last 30 yrs were all in the second half of that period

The three coldest Augusts of the last 30 yrs were all in the first half of that period (well almost - one was 14/15 years ago!)

CETs below 14.0 have always been rare, coming on av about once every 30 yrs (though there was a near 50 yr gaps 1737-85):

the last was 1986, then 1956, then 1922

CETs below 15.0 are generally quite common, but the last one we had was in 1993, 15 years ago. Such warmer runs are not unusual either, however, and happened regularly in the 18th Century.

The coldest CET av for Aug in the record was 1912 at 12.9

The hottest CET av for Aug in the record was 1995 at 19.2

And my guess for the month is 16.4^oC

Ossie

[Sunlover]

17.5 CET for me please

[The PIT]

I'll pop in with 16.3C. Warmest month of the summer.

[memories of 63]

I'm going for a hopefull 17.1 Deg C

[summer blizzard]

14.2C: Snowmaiden

14.5C: Richard Dx7

14.9C: Gavin P

15.5C: Stu_London

15.6C: Chionomaniac

15.7C: Stephen Prudence

15.8C: Snowsure

15.8C: Kold Weather

15.9C: Steve B

16C: Polar Gael

16.3C: The Pit

16.4C: Osmposm

16.5C: James M

16.7C: Summer Blizzard

17.1C: Devon-Nelly

17.1C: Memories of 63

17.4C: Thundery Wintry Showers

17.5C: Sunlover

17.7C: Mike W

18.9C: Optimus Prime

I'm leaving my prediction as 16.7C for the moment, however i am seriouly considering lowering my prediction in a few days, possibly as low as 15.2C.

Quite a few people have opened the thread earlier than the 17th, i believe the earliest was the 15th.

[Mark Bayley]

16.6c please

[BornFromTheVoid]

A provisional 15.4C for me thanks