August CET

[mountain shadow]

Below average, dismal depresssing and wet......15.7oC

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'll go for 16.4

[beng]

CET: 16.3c

Rainfall:140%

Unsettled month, but warm nights curtesy of the warm atlantic keeping the CET respectable. No real sustained hot spells unless we get another tropical system forcing a pattern change.

[Snowyowl9]

16c as august will be unsettled with some quite S-ly tracking lows at times so mainly unsettled but quite warm upper air at times but temps will be surpressed coming from the west mainly, and with a few shortlived dryer settled spells nothing like last august though where I recorded 30 days with no rain as that went into september.

[summer blizzard]

14.2C: Snowmaiden

14.5C: Richard Dx7

14.9C: Gavin P

15.1C: Calrissian

15.2C: Northants Snow

15.4C: Na Damanta Sam

15.4C: Devon-Nelly

15.5C: Stu_London

15.5C: Summer Blizzard

15.6C: Chionomaniac

15.7C: Stephen Prudence

15.7C: Mountain Shadow

15.8C: Snowsure

15.8C: Terminal Moriane

15.9C: Steve B

15.9C: Rollo

15.9C: Jimben

16C: Polar Gael

16C: Sundog

16C: Lady Pakal

16C: Snowy Owl 9

16.1C: Stargazer

16.1C: Atlantic Flamethrower

16.1C: Uk Moose

16.2C: Norrance

16.2C: Shuggee

16.2C: Blast From The Past

16.2C: Potent Gust

16.2C: Mega Moon Flake

16.2C: Eddie

16.3C: The Pit

16.3C: Stewfox

16.3C: Dr Hosking

16.3C: Beng

16.4C: Osmposm

16.4C: Damienslaw

16.4C: Mr Data

16.4C: Jack Wales

16.4C: Rain Rain Rain

16.5C: James M

16.5C: Mk13

16.6C: Mark Bayley

16.6C: Thundery Wintry Showers

16.6C: Michael Prys-Roberts

16.6C: Anti-Mild

16.7C: Reef

16.7C: Phil N.Warks

16.7C: Iron-Bru

16.7C: Don

16.8C: Glacier Point

16.8C: Mark H

16.8C: Dave Hsug

16.9C: Kold Weather

16.9C: Kentish Man

16.9C: Snow-Man 2006

17C: David Snow

17C: Duncan McAlister

17C: The Watcher

17.1C: Memories of 63

17.1C: Bottesford

17.2C: Timmead

17.5C: Sunlover

17.5C: Scorcher

17.7C: Mike W

17.9C: Roger J Smith

17.9C: Tornado Alley

18.9C: Optimus Prime

20C: Craig Evans

Just over four hours left!!!

[J10]

I'll go for 16.3c.

[acbrixton]

16.4c for me please.

regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

Abrixton and Jackone were in time, from this pont on, they are late entries after this post.

[Optimus Prime]

A warm start to the month with Metcheck on 17.0c (+0.8c)

The summer upto and including the 1st of August against the 71-2000 average stands at 15.1c which is 0.25c below average.

[Mr Maunder]

16.6c please

MM

[Polar Continental]

one of these days i will get a reading in before the deadline, 16.0c

Paul

[chionomaniac]

I am going to try and record each days provisional CET figures with maxima and minimum as soon as possible after they are released to see where the biggest end of months adjustments come from.

CET up to the 1st is 17.0ºC

Maximum is 20.5ºC

Minimum is 13.4ºC

c

[reef]

I am going to try and record each days provisional CET figures with maxima and minimum as soon as possible after they are released to see where the biggest end of months adjustments come from.

CET up to the 1st is 17.0ºC

Maximum is 20.5ºC

Minimum is 13.4ºC

Theres not really much point in doing this, as you can view both sets of figures at the end of the month anyway:

Provisional Values:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008

Quality Controlled:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

Also Max and Min:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_max_2008

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_max_est_2008

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_min_2008

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_min_est_2008

Edited August 2, 2008 by reef

[damianslaw]

My thoughts for August were for it to come in cooler than July, however, with July's figure of 16.2 degrees and my August projection of 16.4 degrees my guess figure doesn't now follow suit. Oh well, have to stick with my 16.4 although based on July's figure my guess should really be 16.0 or 16.1.

[chionomaniac]

Theres not really much point in doing this, as you can view both sets of figures at the end of the month anyway:

Thanks for those links Reef. The reason I wanted to keep the initial figures so soon after they are released is that I believe that they are subject to numerous revisions. Take 23rd of July for instance. The immediate CET figures released were 19.9ºC (maxima 27.1ºC). The next day these were revised to the provisional values 18.7ºC (maxima 24.6ºC). The final quality controlled values were 18.9ºC (maxima 23.9ºC). I guess in the long run, that it does not matter, as the daily provisional CET figure is adjusted accordingly.

Any way to the here and now, yesterday came in at 18.0ºC (max 21.5ºC, min 14.4ºC) so the monthly CET to the 2nd is 17.5ºC.

c

[Lettucing Gutted]

Thanks for those links Reef. The reason I wanted to keep the initial figures so soon after they are released is that I believe that they are subject to numerous revisions. Take 23rd of July for instance. The immediate CET figures released were 19.9ºC (maxima 27.1ºC). The next day these were revised to the provisional values 18.7ºC (maxima 24.6ºC). The final quality controlled values were 18.9ºC (maxima 23.9ºC). I guess in the long run, that it does not matter, as the daily provisional CET figure is adjusted accordingly.

Any way to the here and now, yesterday came in at 18.0ºC (max 21.5ºC, min 14.4ºC) so the monthly CET to the 2nd is 17.5ºC.

c

Another advantage of the early figures is that we can see clearly which factor is driving the August CET upwards. Currently it is the minima since they are well above the 1961-1990 average whilst the maxima are bang on average.

[Snowyowl9]

Not really surprising the nights have been mild so far this month as we`ve been in very mild upper air well it would be for winter.

But compared with this tme last year the CET would be lower after today as I recorded the warmest day of the summer at 24.5c

It will change this week though with warmer muggy air coming but wet so daytime won`t be much higher, as it looks cooler by the weekened.

Last august had some notably cool nights and was the coolest since 1993 at 15.4c

[reef]

Hadley is 17.3C to the 3rd after yesterday came in close to average at 17.0C.

Manley is 17.4C to the 3rd aswell, so one of those rare occasions where it is higher.

[damianslaw]

Hadley is 17.3C to the 3rd after yesterday came in close to average at 17.0C.

Manley is 17.4C to the 3rd aswell, so one of those rare occasions where it is higher.

Reef I can't help but question your CET figure recordings. I note you are 18. something at this stage in August, this seems a very high figure compared to the average CET particularly given your location. Also, your July CET comes in a bit above the CET average....

Anyway, expect the CET to go up a little tomorrow maybe but then a sharp drop it seems with some notably cool minima and poor maxima. Could well be at the highest it will ever get tomorrow.

[acbrixton]

Reef I can't help but question your CET figure recordings. I note you are 18. something at this stage in August, this seems a very high figure compared to the average CET particularly given your location. Also, your July CET comes in a bit above the CET average....

Anyway, expect the CET to go up a little tomorrow maybe but then a sharp drop it seems with some notably cool minima and poor maxima. Could well be at the highest it will ever get tomorrow.

Damian, Reef's data are, presumably, based on his own recordings in Hull. Hull is some way from the CET recording zone. No member's data can claim to be the CET.

On the basis of the 18z, with adjustments, I think that we may get to 17.5/17.6c after the first week and 16.5-16.7c by the 1/3rd mark on 11/8.

regards

ACB

[reef]

Reef I can't help but question your CET figure recordings. I note you are 18. something at this stage in August, this seems a very high figure compared to the average CET particularly given your location. Also, your July CET comes in a bit above the CET average....

Anyway, expect the CET to go up a little tomorrow maybe but then a sharp drop it seems with some notably cool minima and poor maxima. Could well be at the highest it will ever get tomorrow.

As acbrixton rightly mentioned, those figures are from my own station and nothing to do with the CET whatsoever. Ive also mentioned before that Im in a microclimate here as I live on the front of the River Humber (less than 20 metres away in fact). This essentially means maxima and minima both tend to be less extreme. In summer that translates to minima below 10C and maxima above 30C being very rare. It also gives monthly means often above the CET despite being further north. The 1971-2000 average for August here for example is 16.6C, compared to 16.2C for the CET zone.

The metoffice climate map explains:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ave...00/tmean/17.gif

The annual 1971-2000 average here is 9.95C, compared to 9.74C in the CET zone. Hull is rather mild for its northern location, especially so here by the riverside.

[reef]

Yesterday was rather cool at 15.9C, taking the Hadley mean to 17.0C to the 4th.

Looking at the outlook, we could well have peaked for the month already.

Manley meanwhile saw a huge 0.6C drop to 16.8C - seems too big a drop to me.

[acbrixton]

Damian, Reef's data are, presumably, based on his own recordings in Hull. Hull is some way from the CET recording zone. No member's data can claim to be the CET.

On the basis of the 18z, with adjustments, I think that we may get to 17.5/17.6c after the first week and 16.5-16.7c by the 1/3rd mark on 11/8.

regards

ACB

My prediction assumed a CET (Hadley) of 17.2 as at 4th so the figures need to be adjusted down!

Apologies.

regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

Just out of interest, the GFS12z ensembles would give an outcome of around 15.3C (+/- 0.3) to the 21st.

[reef]

Yesterday came in at just 15.4C, taking the Hadley value to 16.6C to the 5th.

Manley meanwhile is also 16.6C.

Today will see a big jump upwards, the majority of England is quite warm after a particularly mild night. We will then see the inevitable fall as the northerly brings cooler nights in.