Hurricane Gustav

[PersianPaladin]

Anybody got any updated link to the ocean isotherms in the gulf?

[Mondy]

Anybody got any updated link to the ocean isotherms in the gulf?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

says it all really -

[PersianPaladin]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

says it all really -

Very interesting; possible that the storm has caused warmer water to be pooled northwards from gyres in the Carribean; albeit the Gulf looks a tad cooler than it was when Katrina hit.

I wonder whats with that anamoly in the centre of the Gulf though?

Edited August 30, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[Paranoid]

Think that's an eddy vortex, they occasionally split off from the loop current as i understand.

[tinybill]

Very interesting; possible that the storm has caused warmer water to be pooled northwards from gyres in the Caribbean; albeit the Gulf looks a tad cooler than it was when Katrina hit.

I wonder whats with that anomaly in the centre of the Gulf though?

the fox new weather bloke said the other night that is a very deep gully with deep hot weather when the eye passes that area it will get its fuel to go to cat 4-5 , when it gets there it should be cat 3 , by the time it hits shore it should be cat 4

[Mondy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2942710820080830

[Iceberg]

Gustav is not a CAT 5 yet. Pressure has continued to fall but winds are still 10 mph light, further passes have not revealed flight winds of 140Kt again.

18:27:30Z 21.667N 82.617W 696.4 mb

(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,661 meters

(~ 8,730 feet) 940.9 mb

(~ 27.78 inHg) - From 224° at 9 knots

(From the SW at ~ 10.3 mph) 19.3°C

(~ 66.7°F) 6.0°C

(~ 42.8°F) 11 knots

(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -

18:28:00Z 21.683N 82.650W 696.8 mb

(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,651 meters

(~ 8,698 feet) 939.6 mb

(~ 27.75 inHg) - From 340° at 7 knots

(From the NNW at ~ 8.0 mph) 20.1°C

(~ 68.2°F) 6.0°C

(~ 42.8°F) 11 knots

(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -

18:28:30Z 21.683N 82.650W 696.8 mb

(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,651 meters

(~ 8,698 feet) 938.9 mb

(~ 27.73 inHg) - From 357° at 12 knots

(From the N at ~ 13.8 mph) 20.7°C

(~ 69.3°F) 6.0°C

(~ 42.8°F) 14 knots

(~ 16.1 mph) - - - -

There could be some fantastic footage of the eye if there is anyone on the isle still. A daylight hit of an eye like that is very rare.

[Mondy]

Jeez,

Gustav is now stronger than Katrina at this particular timeframe

[Iceberg]

A Fantastic eye on visual. Doppler shows a very strong eye wall, at last it on real Doppler at the key west site.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...111&loop=no

[Iceberg]

Top winds in the weakest quad the SW of 97Kt.

Pressure so far down to 939mb, for a CAT 5 flight winds of 150Kt will be boarderline, 155Kt will be a cert.

200530 2153N 08259W 6986 02772 9655 +089 +030 322092 097 999 999 03

200600 2154N 08257W 6942 02781 9615 +085 +030 325089 097 999 999 03

200630 2155N 08256W 6999 02670 9557 +101 +030 316072 081 107 003 03

200700 2156N 08255W 6950 02708 9476 +143 +030 308062 071 106 005 00

200730 2158N 08254W 6974 02644 9419 +177 +030 305036 042 074 010 00

200800 2159N 08252W 6969 02643 9395 +191 +030 299018 026 022 002 03

200830 2201N 08251W 6970 02634 9394 +185 +030 350001 007 012 003 03

I've not really had chance to find out the effect on Cuba, It will pass within 20-30 miles of Havana (less than the diameter of it's eye. As well as a number of other populated areas.

Winds inexcess of 100 mph will be causing a lot of damage

Gustav is not a CAT 5.

Strongest flight winds are 143Kt slightly stronger still but shy of the magic number, still if your on Cuba there isn't much difference between 140-150mph winds.

Lowest pressure at 938 so pretty stable.

201230 2211N 08242W 6973 02694 9498 +143 +030 140094 106 092 001 00

201300 2212N 08240W 6963 02743 9561 +118 +030 147125 131 103 000 00

201330 2214N 08239W 6965 02771 9609 +109 +030 142141 143 106 002 00

201400 2215N 08238W 6986 02772 9643 +100 +030 136136 137 105 007 00

201430 2216N 08237W 6973 02816 9687 +088 +030 135128 133 098 018 00

201500 2217N 08236W 6965 02852 9734 +074 +030 137122 124 088 025 00

201530 2218N 08234W 6959 02880 9756 +077 +030 136117 121 084 016 00

[Calrissian]

A moment of silence please...for the people of Western Cuba.

Cat'5, no doubt about it, I can't imagine anything less than reinforced solid structures having much hope of remaining. Anyone know how many people will be affected there ? I've read its a mostly flat area, but I guess at least there is no stupid bowl like New Orleans.

I would guess this is the first 5' to make landfall since Wilma ?

Calrissian: vive la communists :o

[Paranoid]

Wilma didn't make landfall as a 5 as far as i remember. Last one to do so was Felix last year.

The cubans have one of the best storm preparedness systems in the americas so hopefully casulaties should be limited.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Paranoid

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

A moment of silence please...for the people of Western Cuba.

Cat'5, no doubt about it, I can't imagine anything less than reinforced solid structures having much hope of remaining. Anyone know how many people will be affected there ? I've read its a mostly flat area, but I guess at least there is no stupid bowl like New Orleans.

I would guess this is the first 5' to make landfall since Wilma ?

Calrissian: vive la communists :o

Over a million by the looks of it. Densely populated, Havana looks like it will take the full force of a strong Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately storm surge less of an issue on the north side of the island.

AFT: Betting they'll need a few puffs on their own expensive cigars after Gus has gone through.

[Calrissian]

ahh, oh, okay.

In any case, if I was on Cuba right now, I'd wanna be in a nuclear bunker. Maybe the Ruskies left a few from the 60s?

Calrissian: awaiting the 10pm

[Katherine]

150 MPH now being reported by Fox News.

EDIT: Confirmed by NHC in latest advisory.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Katherine

[Mondy]

From earlier, by MODIS - Stunning, yet awful.

[kold weather]

This is not a 5 just yet, data suggests 150mph which is still an insane powerful hurricane that is going to cause unreal damage in that northern eyewall, Cuba is about to get hammered by a very powerful category-4.

There is a chance that this makes it cat-5 but its more likely to occur after Cuba, theres probably a 24hr time frame at best before heat content really drops away, that 24hrs is over the loop current which bombed several 2005 major hurricanes.

Any eastward jog in track brings a powerful Gustav right over New Orleans, I think landfall will still only be around cat-3 because heat content really drops and with some mid level dry air from the states...but even if it does weaken upon landfall the size will make the surge huge just like Katrina.

[Calrissian]

*an aside..but if I may...

two hurricane shows tonight.

1. Hurricane city.com

2. barometer bob show.

Both start at 1am UK time, and I find both very good listening.

-

So, Gustav is at 150mph, Cuba is getting whacked...and looks like still a fair way to go yet until it hits some kind of 920mb or a bit lower.

Calrissian: Silly Darnell, being teased again.

[Iceberg]

He has now been upped to 130Kt, 5kt shy of a CAT 5.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 82.9W AT 30/2100Z

AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W

MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.

64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

They are suggesting landfall as a CAT 4.

THE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL...WITH

THE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB. A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT

AT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WHICH

SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT. MODEST

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO

CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...BUT THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS

UNTIL 24 HOURS. AFTER DEPARTING CUBA...THE HURRICANE WILL PASS

OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME

PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL

LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO

NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

[kold weather]

Yep 130kts, a very powerful hurricane, really the difference between this and a cat-5 really isnt much at all and so expect a horrible picture when this is over...

I think a cat-5 is almost certain over the loop current *unless* Cuba manages to disrupt the core...don't think that will happen though.

[Kilkenny Boy]

This is not a 5 just yet, data suggests 150mph which is still an insane powerful hurricane that is going to cause unreal damage in that northern eyewall, Cuba is about to get hammered by a very powerful category-4.

Just looking at Gustav on Earthdesk, and it looks amazing. As kold says, Cuba really in the firing line, with the eye just west of Havana.

[Buckster76]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/imag...200807_5day.gif

CAT4 landfall near New Orleans ? :o

Yep 130kts, a very powerful hurricane, really the difference between this and a cat-5 really isnt much at all and so expect a horrible picture when this is over...

I think a cat-5 is almost certain over the loop current *unless* Cuba manages to disrupt the core...don't think that will happen though.

[kold weather]

Yep as I thought its turned out to be a textbook hurricane, I forecasted max winds of 150mph and 931mbs, looks like the winds will end up being a little bit too low but the pressure looks like being close once this gets over the Gulf of Mexico.

[Iceberg]

They are determined to fined CAT 5 winds, we now have two aircraft doing recon.

[Paranoid]

Cat 4 at landfall? I hope weatherchick is out of NO safely.