Hurricane Gustav

[MAF]

found this to be a good summary

discussion #20 NOAA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/292100.shtml?

[Cookie]

Thanks

The feeling here? One of panic. If the levees break New Orleans will become a memory. We've just begun to make strides in our rebuilding and all of that will be undone. It's a very scary thought. Looking over the city it makes me sad to think that it could once again be under water.

we will be all thinking of you. and everyone else gud luck

[SMU]

my 5000th post !!!!!!

The 22:45 infrared radar could be the most telling yet-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

look carefully at the centre of circulation & you can see the eye now beginning to pop-

We are probably entering the most critical phase ( 18/24 hours) of Gustavs developments-

this will show us ultimatly how much potential is going to be realised from this storm & how far west it makes before beginning to recurve...

baton down the hatches............

Also of more note is the continued persistence of the ECM to bring hanna across the panhandle & towards the central gulf coast...

S

PS latest VDM fix has it tracking west of the OFFICIAL forecast track-

http://www.gscape.com/images/wx/gustavrecon290808_05.jpg

Edited August 29, 2008 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Get ready for some big drops in pressure, eye hjas relaly tightened up and beocme defined again and large convective blowup developing in the NE eyewall will powerup the winds.

In many ways reminds me of Katrina in that it took big drops of pressure but only slowly ramped up the winds.

The next 6-9hrs should have this well on its way to major status, spends a short time over the fairly flat part of Cuba then emerges out probably borderline cat-2/3 and heading towards the infamous loop current.

Edited August 29, 2008 by kold weather

[SMU]

Get ready for some big drops in pressure, eye hjas relaly tightened up and beocme defined again and large convective blowup developing in the NE eyewall will powerup the winds.

In many ways reminds me of Katrina in that it took big drops of pressure but only slowly ramped up the winds.

The next 6-9hrs should have this well on its way to major status, spends a short time over the fairly flat part of Cuba then emerges out probably borderline cat-2/3 and heading towards the infamous loop current.

NE quadrant has blown up-

http://www.saturdayaftermath.com/Weather/T...082908/2332.jpg

Looks like someone dropped a cluster bomb into the heart of gus-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

S

Edited August 29, 2008 by Steve Murr

[mezzacyclone]

Seeing as we havn`t had no data for a while? (not that I figure much mor than half of it but,,,?)

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 23:22Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)

Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Identifier: Gustav1

Mission Number: 10

Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:05:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°08'N 79°54'W (19.1333N 79.9W)

B. Center Fix Location: 98 miles (157 km) to the E (97°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,884m (9,462ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 329° at 58kts (From the NNW at ~ 66.7mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 975mb (28.79 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: Not Available

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:02:40Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

RAGGED EYEWALL PRESENTATION

[Roger J Smith]

Watch for the next forecast at 0300z to ramp up the intensity in the Gulf. I have the feeling they have been playing this conservatively in case Gustav failed to emerge from Jamaica with much energy, but clearly it is on the steady rebound already and the brief landfall in Cuba won't do much to slow it down. I think we will be hearing more speculation about cat-4 or cat-5 intensity soon, and the Gulf temperature profiles support this, as well as the clear-cut environment developing (whenever you see mainly clear skies ahead of a well-defined hurricane, it is a good sign for rapid intensification).

The one encouraging note is that the track consensus is probably a bit to the west of the worst case scenario, if this crosses the LA coast west of 90 W it will not do much serious damage in NOLA, and if it is around 91-92 W it will hit a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast and weaken before reaching any large towns further inland. The down side is that the Sabine River or Galveston-Houston regions are not out of the equation at all, in fact, I think they may be at greater risk than New Orleans at this stage.

Anyway, the worst target for Gustav in terms of risk to NOLA and that region would be around 29 N 90 W moving NNW, this would be the long-feared direct hit on the strong side, so watch for the departure (if any) from that position in the next track update.

[MAF]

thanks roger, am waiting for the 0300Z update with the anticipation of an upgrade

[kold weather]

Yep I think you may well be right Roger if it hits Cuba at cat-3/4 you normally find that the loop current strengthens a system right back up even if it does weaken overland pretty badly, like we saw with hurricane Dennis in 05. The loop current certainly could produce top end cat-4 winds...Lili hit Cuba at cat-2 then peaked over the gulf at 145mph...

By the way recon just found 971mbs with 42kts flight level...real pressure could be 3-4mbs lower then that...here we go with yet another RI phase I think, expect Gustav to be a major hurricane in 6-9hrs.

[MAF]

Advisory #20A issued

..................

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE

HUNTER WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES......................

[Calrissian]

The Staff of the Gods is spinning up magnificently now.

30C or so waters, thats pretty much Grade A' rocket fuel for this storm, and on the current track, even the little brush with Castro' state won't be much of a problem for him.

It is not a question of if this storm will do the much talked about bombing, its just a matter of how fast.

Its now Saturday, and the time to leave...is about now. By Saturday night, the roads will be crazy, and Sunday...even worse. Monday...and the winds will already be making it unwise to drive.

Everything is proceeding as foreseen.

[Roger J Smith]

Well, the 03z advisory did speculate on higher intensity but there are a some other points worth mentioning before we all get caught up in Katrina-II hysteria here.

First, the current official track would only give NOLA a moderate storm with all southeast winds so that levee failure would have to be on the less exposed southeast corner, and at the distance implied, even a cat-4 storm would be no worse than 50-70 mph at New Orleans. That track would place towns like Houma and Lafayette in the firing line but these are far enough inland that only cat-2 wind damage would be likely there. Further west an even less dangerous landfall is possible until you reach about 93 W and then it gets dicey for Lake Charles, Beaumont-Port Arthur and even Galveston and Houston eventually.

Second point, much slanted disinformation has been spread around the world about what actually happened during Katrina. I just thought this might be a good opportunity to comment on that. First of all, it was not the case that Katrina was underpredicted or even that the risk to New Orleans was underestimated. I fully recall sitting here on the early morning of August 29th 2005, watching CNN coverage of the storm, to which I make very minor contributions sometimes, and it was quite clear that the storm's actual power was well understood and predicted. It was being called "touch and go" whether the levees would hold and that's exactly right, the western levees did not fail during the storm but about 24 hours later. Some of the eastern levees failed earlier but that alone would have only flooded the east end of New Orleans.

Third point, the people of New Orleans were ordered to evacuate 36 hours before the storm and 90 to 95% complied. The people who stayed behind gambled and lost. Given the uncertainties, the 90-95 per cent compliance is the really remarkable thing, not the 5-10 per cent non-compliance. I've heard that this time, there won't be a safe haven like the Superdome available for those who choose to disobey an evacuation order. That was perhaps the mistake made in 2005, because this "safe haven" turned out to be a little corner of hell when the floods surrounded it.

Fourth point, much has been made since of how the response was a failure of the administration, but this is selective -- the state and local governments (Democrats) have been given a very easy time compared to the Bush administration, and really the way government works in our federal systems over here, the state government is the one really carrying the ball on these major disasters. And President Bush was not the person who decided to build a major city in a depression ten feet below sea level in a hurricane zone, I think we could go back a bit further to find the culprits there.

I would also make the point that after Camille hit the area in 1969 and demonstrated that New Orleans was at risk, and also another hurricane breached the levees in 1961 whereas Camille only did major damage in MS, southern Democrats were in the White House from 1964 to 1968, 1977 to 1980, and 1993 to 2000, and nothing was done by any of them to shore up the levees, so really the failure is entirely bi-partisan, although that doesn't make it any less irresponsible. The real point of Katrina that few have taken so far, is that major natural disasters tend to be juggled around by different levels of government in the federal system, and quite often, nothing ends up being done until after the fact. If there is a second New Orleans disaster, perhaps this point will finally be made, because even after 2005 there has been very little actual progress towards a long-term solution. Ironically, I think some people figure it is cheaper to rebuild than to prevent, and given where New Orleans is situated, they could be right technically speaking, but it's probably better social planning to spend more and take the economic hit.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[SMU]

Its getting late in the day but I think NOLA could be ok........

S

[MAF]

i suppose its a matter of "wait and see" as to where land fall will be and to the severity of it wen it does hit land.

[Iceberg]

Looks like the SE quad has the highest winds at the moment a largish closed eye pressure due to fall below 980 very soon and winds still slowly responding. probably find 90Kt on this recon flight.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 30/04:47:00Z

B. 19 deg 35 min N

080 deg 37 min W

C. 700 mb 2843 m

D. 76 kt

E. 339 deg 020 nm

F. 069 deg 084 kt

G. 337 deg 026 nm

H. 971 mb

I. 8 C/ 3045 m

J. 14 C/ 3047 m

K. 5 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C30

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 04

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WND 85 KT SE QUAD 04:54:10 Z

[Iceberg]

The eye is now viewable on Cuban Radar and shows that it is quite large (allowing for plenty of tightening) and in reasonable but not great shape.

Wow. wind speeds of 100Kt have just been found at flight level and not isolated.

This would easily support a CAT 2 at 85Kts. this intensification is mad. and not good for Cuba.

054830 2016N 08016W 6965 03032 9925 +081 +081 127075 076 052 009 00

054900 2014N 08018W 6967 03024 9921 +079 +079 124074 075 054 011 00

054930 2013N 08019W 6970 03014 9931 +067 +067 126078 084 056 021 00

055000 2012N 08020W 6958 03020 9916 +070 +070 128087 091 061 029 00

055030 2011N 08021W 6970 02997 9905 +073 +073 129082 086 065 032 00

055100 2009N 08023W 6959 02999 9890 +076 +076 133087 089 066 033 00

055130 2008N 08024W 6971 02989 9892 +074 +074 137083 087 069 034 00

055200 2007N 08025W 6979 02965 9878 +074 +074 138088 091 071 036 00

055230 2006N 08026W 6966 02970 9867 +075 +075 139090 094 073 029 00

055300 2005N 08028W 6977 02942 9850 +077 +077 142096 100 071 032 00

055330 2004N 08029W 6967 02953 9839 +080 +080 147093 098 073 028 00

055400 2003N 08030W 6961 02948 9825 +080 +080 144086 088 075 021 00

055430 2002N 08031W 6970 02925 9812 +082 +082 144078 081 076 014 00

Pressure has now dropped to 967mb (enough once he has wound up for nearly 100Kt, nearly a CAT 3).

At the moment he is certainly a CAT 2.

055830 1951N 08040W 6967 02874 9693 +133 +090 132031 034 039 006 00

055900 1949N 08041W 6969 02867 9678 +142 +090 135023 026 029 005 03

055930 1948N 08042W 6968 02867 9679 +141 +090 146016 017 024 004 03

060000 1947N 08044W 6969 02864 9678 +140 +090 164013 016 022 005 00

060030 1946N 08045W 6968 02863 9678 +140 +090 179009 011 017 004 00

060100 1944N 08046W 6969 02861 9669 +147 +090 186008 008 014 005 00

060130 1943N 08047W 6965 02872 9671 +147 +090 215005 006 014 004 00

060200 1942N 08049W 6967 02866 9673 +145 +090 278009 011 005 005 00

060230 1940N 08050W 6967 02868 9679 +139 +090 292013 017 015 005 00

060300 1939N 08051W 6968 02877 9693 +138 +090 298025 027 021 005 00

Edit.

Just on time.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100

MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Pressure down to 963mbs now it seems, eye has finally become solid and totally cleared out on IR at last and the eyewall has once again closed up after constantly being unable to close off totally.

NHC now fporecasting a category-4 over the loop current and I see no reason why that should not happen unless Cuba really hurts it.

[dvdfjojo]

Looking at the latest IR, there's perfect symmetry in those coldest cloud tops. The eye seems a bit stretched though as though it's not perfectly stacked yet - is that due to the speed or direction it's travelling in? Looks like this has the potential to be a perfect storm in just a few hours if this keeps up.

Also, have had a look at this morning's ECMRF - http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...;!!step - and as well as Gustav heading straight for Louisiana, they have a very large Hanna and then I presume Ike barrelling into South Florida, one after the other. Looks like the US may have 3 majors hitting their shores within 7-8 days - what a nightmare after the quiet year last year.

[kold weather]

I think its just a function of the very deep convection in the eyewall making it look a little irregular.

Also should be noted, the NHC have just upped the winds to 95kts, so just shy of major hurricane status now, should make it in the next 6hrs I guess!

[dvdfjojo]

I think its just a function of the very deep convection in the eyewall making it look a little irregular.

Also should be noted, the NHC have just upped the winds to 95kts, so just shy of major hurricane status now, should make it in the next 6hrs I guess!

Thanks Kold, just noticed that the cold cloud tops had a real 'yin yang' shape to them, yet the eye seemed quite narrow and ragged.

Hope everything works out okay for you Weatherchick and if you do have to evacuate that all goes smoothly and safely.

[dvdfjojo]

Just noticed it's now been upgraded to a Category 3 with 115 mph winds and has dropped 10mb in the last hour - rapid intensification or what?

With hurricane season, I alwasy look on Google Earth and it's fascinating to focus in on tiny little islands in the area that I never knew were even there. There's some picture postcard islands south of cuba (Cayo Largo especially) that are just beautiful - hope this doesn't churn up the corals there, I don't think I've seen a more beautiful place.

[Coast]

Good agreement on the models for track now, hang on to your hats Louisiana!

Cat 3 at landfall???!!!!

B) This really isn't going to be pretty:

Edited August 30, 2008 by Coast

[Paranoid]

Posting the updated advisory if anyone wants to see it.

000

WTNT62 KNHC 300953

TCUAT2

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

600 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS

NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A

DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE

SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE

SEASON.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Read somewhere the pressure was down to 954mb. Won't be long before this overtakes Bertha as the strongest storm of the season so far.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Paranoid

[smich]

Yep, it's really bombing now. Would probably upgrade that Stormtrack to Cat 4 BEFORE it reaches Cuba, given it's Cat 3 already, only two thirds of the way there! Assuming land interaction doesn't affect it too much, it then passes over the loop current and would maintain Cat 4 status at the very least over the Southern Gulf.

They should start evacuating threatened areas now.

Steve M

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Current models seem to put him on a course similar to hurricane rita, who tracked the loop current. So before writing New Orleans off we should wait until Gustav clears Cuba. The loop current may deflect him further west than anticipated, which would be bad news for all those oil platforms off the Texas-Louisiana shore.