Hurricane Gustav

[Iceberg]

111100 1810N 07824W 6963 03055 9926 +103 +060 339037 037 024 004 00

111130 1811N 07825W 6964 03053 9916 +112 +060 351036 037 027 004 00

111200 1812N 07826W 6967 03054 9911 +120 +060 001036 037 030 005 03

111230 1814N 07827W 6966 03057 9910 +119 +060 356032 033 035 005 03

111300 1815N 07827W 6963 03058 9914 +115 +060 002034 035 038 004 00

111330 1817N 07827W 6968 03050 9917 +112 +060 007034 035 038 004 00

111400 1818N 07827W 6966 03055 9920 +110 +060 013033 034 039 004 00

111430 1820N 07826W 6968 03052 9916 +112 +060 018034 035 040 005 00

111500 1821N 07826W 6966 03054 9915 +112 +060 015031 031 041 005 00

111530 1823N 07826W 6965 03055 9920 +109 +060 010032 034 041 004 00

111600 1824N 07826W 6969 03049 9924 +104 +060 010036 036 041 004 00

111630 1826N 07826W 6964 03059 9924 +105 +060 006036 036 045 004 00

111700 1827N 07826W 6967 03055 9920 +109 +060 012036 037 045 004 00

111730 1827N 07826W 6967 03055 9922 +107 +060 014036 037 044 004 00

111800 1830N 07826W 6968 03053 9927 +103 +060 019035 035 045 005 00

111830 1830N 07826W 6968 03053 9927 +103 +060 020035 035 045 005 00

111900 1830N 07826W 6968 03053 9929 +103 +060 022035 036 044 005 00

111930 1830N 07826W 6968 03053 9929 +103 +060 023035 036 044 005 00

An eye now forming and a large area of sub 993 pressures.

[Iceberg]

Pressure falling so some strengthening is underway already.

000

URNT12 KNHC 291133 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 29/11:06:30Z

B. 18 deg 14 min N

078 deg 10 min W

C. 700 mb 2974 m

D. 39 kt

E. 209 deg 013 nm

F. 297 deg 036 kt

G. 215 deg 019 nm

H. EXTRAP 988 mb

I. 9 C/ 3047 m

J. 11 C/ 3049 m

K. 6 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1234 / 7

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF302 0907A GUSTAV OB 20 CCA

MAX FL WIND 54 KT SE QUAD 09:38:00 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

CENTER ON BEACH

MAX FL OUTBOUND WIND 49 KTS N QUAD 1131Z

[Iceberg]

There is considerable evidence now on a New Orleans hit as something between a CAT 3-5 but almost certainly a Major Hurricane.

[opplevelse]

Convection already wrapping around the center very nicely with central pressure of 992mbs. I think we are about to see Gustsv become a textbook hurricane in the next 36hrs.

Yes, and some good banding, although the convection is not overly strong yet. Good poleward outflow visible on the animations but fairly poor equatorward still.

Basically everything is there for a strong cyclone, high SSTs, low shear, some (although not a huge amount) of moisture ... once he leaves Cuba, watch the development.

The 85GhZ image below (high range) shows the convection and banding.

Edited August 29, 2008 by opplevelse

[Coast]

Governor Bobby Jindal on the possible evacuation of Louisiana:

[Iceberg]

He's looking very good now.

Amazing banding and outflow.

[BrickFielder]

GFS Forecasts (750hPa Winds)

[Paul Sherman]

Stu Just posted this on Ukww

Look at the Intensification now Underway

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

[londonsnow]

He's looking very good now.

Amazing banding and outflow.

depends what you mean by looking very good. if i were on the north gulf coast or sw cuba i would say he's looking very bad. It's a tricky one isnt it. i'm sure loads of cane watchers want to see the perfect storm, but we certainly dont want death and destruction, and terrible impacts on people in its path. hopefully we get a better evacuation scenario than katrina if it hits NO. I'm concerned about the cuban impact at the minute

[mountain shadow]

Amazing situation occuring. If it hits NO and the levees breach again, surely the city would have to be abandoned?

[Iceberg]

Yes it's always tricky and guilty feeling pleased to have a nice storm to follow, but hopeing it doesn't kill too many.(Although Gustav's toll is already too many ).

The storm is going through very rapid intensification I think atm. the outflow on the visuals almost circulate the storm, with a large pressure field this is very worrying, the tight banding which is only getting tighter shows that he is clearly a Hurricane atm.

Recon has flown off and will hopefully soon start reporting useful figures.

[dallas]

Stu Just posted this on Ukww

Look at the Intensification now Underway

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

That is pretty impresive intensification

[Coast]

Texas and Mississippi joined Louisiana in declaring a state of emergency as local, state and federal officials tried to figure out where Gustav is going to go. They also worried about newly formed Tropical Storm Hanna, and about two more tropical systems that could spell trouble by early next week. At 7 p.m, the National Weather Service issued an advisory saying that Gustav was 15 miles west of Kingston, Jamaica. Gustav is moving west at 7 mph. Current computer projections continue to bring Gustav ashore on the Terrebonne Parish coast on Tuesday morning, but there are many “ifs” in the forecast and Gustav has already played one trick, taking a surprising jog to the west overnight.

Now some experts saya blocking ridge of high pressure may build in over the southern U.S. by Monday, forcing Gustav to move slowly westward toward Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hanna began to gather strength in the Atlantic, taking a generally westward course that could bring it into the Gulf in a week or so.

“Further strengthening of Gustav is anticipated as it moves either across western Cuba or through the Yucatan Channel and into the central Gulf of Mexico,” according to AccuWeather.com meteorologist Kevin Witt. “Due to this uncertainty, all interests along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville to the Florida Keys should monitor the progress.”

According to WeatherUnderground expert Jeff Masters, “Gustav may slow down considerably just before landfall in the U.S., making its long-term track and landfall location very uncertain at this time.” Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center noted that two reliable computer models continue to steer the storm toward a nervous New Orleans, while others take it as far west as Galveston. On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency and asked President Bush to make a "pre-landfall" disaster declaration. Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour did the same today.

Source: www.theadvertiser.com

[londonsnow]

latest advisory from the noaa confirms that gustav is near cat 1, and will become a major player soon

[MAF]

latest discussion from NOAA

SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100

UTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES

VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW

THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA

FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE

THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE

MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO

STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28

PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV

CROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF

THAT ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A

MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A

LITTLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

[Iceberg]

Recon has NOT found anything spectacular.

Flight winds have increase to 67Kt (just found) with pressure of 984mb

The important bit is the size that Gustav is now IMO, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES this says it all, he now have a large pressure and wind field which will slow down intensification. This is not good news though as it increases the chances of him reaching CAT 5. Even with the larger wind field he is probably at 60-65Kt surface atm and will be at 80Kt surface I think by the morning. A Mahor Cane when hitting Cuba with TS winds going out maybe 200 miles.

He will also have a large hurricane strength wind field when he reaches the states.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. GUSTAV COULD

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

[MAF]

the next NOAA advisory will be issued at 2100Z (2200BST) will be interesting to see if the pressure has changed much over the last few hours

[Iceberg]

A large area of 60+Kt flight winds upto 72Kt should be enough to raise him to Hurricane Gustav again. It wil be interesting to see what the pressure is this run.

185730 1918N 07845W 6960 03080 9994 +065 +065 142059 065 057 010 00

185800 1917N 07846W 6967 03069 9988 +068 +068 147067 068 057 014 00

185830 1916N 07848W 6972 03059 9977 +073 +073 149066 067 057 013 00

185900 1915N 07849W 6961 03070 9967 +077 +077 147063 064 057 017 00

185930 1914N 07850W 6966 03059 9969 +073 +073 143064 064 060 014 00

190000 1913N 07851W 6967 03057 9953 +082 +082 141063 064 057 009 00

190030 1912N 07852W 6965 03055 9948 +083 +083 140065 066 059 006 00

190100 1910N 07854W 6967 03048 9950 +079 +079 141063 064 062 006 00

190130 1909N 07855W 6967 03043 9942 +080 +080 145064 066 061 007 00

190200 1908N 07856W 6967 03036 9942 +074 +074 150065 067 062 012 00

190230 1907N 07857W 6962 03037 9938 +074 +074 157069 072 064 010 00

190300 1906N 07858W 6962 03028 9931 +074 +074 158069 070 063 012 00

190330 1905N 07859W 6972 03014 9920 +077 +077 156066 067 066 014 00

190400 1904N 07900W 6970 03007 9914 +076 +076 157065 066 072 025 00

190430 1903N 07902W 6974 02998 9901 +078 +078 158060 063 076 042 00

190500 1902N 07903W 6951 03017 9895 +078 +078 166062 064 079 041 00

Easily sub 980 now, that's a drop of 5mb from the last run 1 hr ago. This is very rapid intensification.

190830 1859N 07914W 6967 02969 9797 +131 +090 189018 018 037 002 00

190900 1859N 07916W 6965 02968 9790 +135 +090 192013 015 029 003 03

190930 1900N 07918W 6965 02968 9788 +134 +090 188008 010 026 001 00

191000 1900N 07920W 6967 02961 9790 +134 +090 155004 007 010 003 03

191030 1859N 07922W 6953 02981 9785 +138 +090 038003 004 026 001 00

191100 1859N 07924W 6972 02959 9784 +141 +090 355002 003 023 001 00

191130 1858N 07926W 6968 02972 9790 +140 +090 345006 008 018 001 03

191200 1857N 07927W 6963 02976 9794 +133 +090 343012 013 029 002 03

[Mondy]

Not that rapid in the grand scale of things. A good few hurri's have dropped over 30mb in less than 24 hours, indeed one or two North Atlantic lows do this during winter. RACY or Rapid Cyclogenisis is how they word it.

Nice loop of both Gustav and Hanna

Edited August 29, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[MAF]

..............Easily sub 980 now, that's a drop of 5mb from the last run 1 hr ago. This is very rapid intensification. .............

welll the NOAA did say this earlier

...SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28

PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV

CROSSES CUBA...

[Iceberg]

There is plenty of time for him to do that Delta. he's only been intensifying for maybe 3 hrs or so .!

[Somerset Squall]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75

MPH...120 KM/HR.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Looking much better now, RI is well underway it seems. How far will Gustav go?

Edited August 29, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

A 78Kt visual surface reading, might or might not be used but is a big increase on the 60Kt from earlier.

000

URNT12 KNHC 291927

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 29/19:11:10Z

B. 18 deg 59 min N

079 deg 24 min W

C. 700 mb 2924 m

D. 78 kt

E. 082 deg 021 nm

F. 157 deg 071 kt

G. 073 deg 027 nm

H. 980 mb

I. 8 C/ 3049 m

J. 14 C/ 3045 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C25

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 OB 02

MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 19:02:40 Z

SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

It is a nicely clearing eye Somerset, shows the RI well.

Edited August 29, 2008 by Iceberg

[Paranoid]

Gustav has organised a lot since this morning from the looks of that photo.

What does "observed visually" mean in terms of wind?

[Katherine]

Well, this is it then.........