Hurricane Gustav

[Mondy]

As Gustav again is a hurricane and looks like strengthening quickly, if it keeps in motion, and without too much sheer in the coming days, storm surge will be evident in the GoM and those low lying areas quicker than we may think.

If the forecast sheer were to recede and Gustav remains intact once passing the Cayman's / Cuba, then a Cat 3 at least churning up the Gulf.

Many will be praying already that it becomes sheered.

[Iceberg]

I think observed visually means it's been taken from SFMR visually measured. But am far from sure, it's a new method which can be quite variable. but this is a half guess, anybody else know.?

[Mondy]

Gustav has organised a lot since this morning from the looks of that photo.

What does "observed visually" mean in terms of wind?

More likely a rough guestimate. American term?, unsure...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sBy12hr_05.html

[MAF]

I think observed visually means it's been taken from SFMR visually measured. But am far from sure, it's a new method which can be quite variable. but this is a half guess, anybody else know.?

More likely a rough guestimate. American term?, unsure... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sBy12hr_05.html

found this link.... unfortunately it's not opening

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist_text.html

[smich]

Hi all,

Looks like a big one this time. Despite the storm's size, the serious heat content in the Caribbean Sea at the moment doesn't preclude a dreaded Pinhole Eye forming over the next 12 hours or so.

Steve M

[MAF]

dont know if this helps,, it is the format for filling out a VDM

http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/nhop/08/pdf/05-chap5-08.pdf

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 975mb which will support a CAT 2.

204700 1902N 07935W 6967 02943 9783 +120 +090 194017 019 032 000 00

204730 1902N 07936W 6962 02953 9777 +127 +090 182007 011 028 000 03

204800 1902N 07938W 6964 02950 9771 +132 +090 283005 005 025 000 00

204830 1902N 07940W 6967 02946 9773 +133 +090 308008 010 022 003 00

204900 1901N 07942W 6966 02950 9768 +137 +090 318014 016 024 003 00

204930 1900N 07943W 6968 02952 9771 +143 +090 327021 022 027 002 03

205000 1900N 07945W 6964 02962 9781 +140 +090 329020 022 999 999 03

205030 1902N 07944W 6965 02952 9765 +143 +090 330014 016 031 003 03

205100 1903N 07942W 6966 02948 9759 +144 +090 329008 009 029 000 03

205130 1903N 07941W 6967 02944 9763 +140 +090 320006 008 030 000 03

205200 1905N 07939W 6972 02936 9771 +137 +086 190001 003 031 000 03

205230 1906N 07939W 6954 02958 9756 +144 +090 101007 009 999 999 03

205300 1908N 07940W 6978 02930 9755 +143 +090 085011 014 029 000 03

205330 1909N 07941W 6961 02949 9754 +142 +090 065020 022 028 001 00

205400 1910N 07943W 6968 02939 9752 +146 +090 064025 025 031 001 00

205430 1912N 07944W 6966 02944 9753 +148 +090 062029 031 039 003 00

205500 1913N 07945W 6969 02950 9766 +138 +090 056039 043 055 005 00

205530 1914N 07947W 6967 02957 9799 +117 +090 048051 053 059 009 00

[MAF]

found it!!

When SFMR surface wind data are unavailable, the surface wind is

determined visually

[Paranoid]

Danke schon

Also can someone delete this double post? I clicked too much

000

WTNT32 KNHC 292051

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE

LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO

DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND

FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL

RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE

CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA

CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...

160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR

OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA

ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY

NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND

GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES

WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR

WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE

JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN

CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND

MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited August 29, 2008 by Paranoid

[Paranoid]

*This double post is currently unavailable and has been replaced with a temporary message*

Edited August 29, 2008 by Paranoid

[MAF]

just edit the post with a smiley or one-liner

[Katherine]

Fox News are now going into hard-nosed graphical ramping mode...

[kold weather]

Well this is the start of the much awaited rapid strengthening, expect this to drop about 30-40mbs in the next 18-24hrs before Cuba, I'm pretty confident that this willbe a major hurricane by the time this reaches Cuba, maybe on the cusp of a 4/5.

Models have shifted westwards on thier daily walkabouts, now aiming for SE Texas in the main...

[Cookie]

thanks for all the updates guys

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for TS is 65% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% currently

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% currently

Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

Well this is the start of the much awaited rapid strengthening, expect this to drop about 30-40mbs in the next 18-24hrs before Cuba, I'm pretty confident that this willbe a major hurricane by the time this reaches Cuba, maybe on the cusp of a 4/5. Models have shifted westwards on thier daily walkabouts, now aiming for SE Texas in the main...

well after Gustav claimed the lives of at least 59 people in Haiti, eight in the Dominican Republic and four in Jamaica. lets hope it doesn't reach those strengths when it touches land again.

[Cookie]

well after Gustav claimed the lives of at least 59 people in Haiti, eight in the Dominican Republic and four in Jamaica. lets hope it doesn't reach those strengths when it touches land again.

thats very sad indeed and was it more flooding that killed people rather then the wind?

[mountain shadow]

Well this is the start of the much awaited rapid strengthening, expect this to drop about 30-40mbs in the next 18-24hrs before Cuba, I'm pretty confident that this willbe a major hurricane by the time this reaches Cuba, maybe on the cusp of a 4/5.

Models have shifted westwards on thier daily walkabouts, now aiming for SE Texas in the main...

SE Texas = SW Louisiana. From my understanding of Katrina the wind strength is not the major player but storm surge plus heavy rainfall.

Can anyone get some info on when the high tide is in NO? Does it coincide with Gustavs projected landfall?

[MAF]

advisory #20 now issued

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/292051.shtml

[Cookie]

SE Texas = SW Louisiana. From my understanding of Katrina the wind strength is not the major player but storm surge plus heavy rainfall.

Can anyone get some info on when the high tide is in NO? Does it coincide with Gustavs projected landfall?

dose that help?

http://easytide.ukho.gov.uk/easytide/EasyT...dictionLength=7

[MAF]

SE Texas = SW Louisiana. From my understanding of Katrina the wind strength is not the major player but storm surge plus heavy rainfall. Can anyone get some info on when the high tide is in NO? Does it coincide with Gustavs projected landfall?

dont know if this may help

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...20flood%20watch

and there is this one too

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/

[mountain shadow]

Cheers chaps, from my readings, Gustavs landfall will not coincide with a particularly high tide, one positive to be taken I suppose.

Has anyone else been particularly impressed with the model output/forecasting on this? Seems very much improved or am i just imagining things?

Our very own members have been on the money as well.

[Guest weatherchick]

Tide info here: http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get...on=0&max=20

We have reservations in Monroe, will leave Sunday. Sorry I won't be able to give first hand reports!!! If a mandatory evacuation is called (which should happen tomorrow or Sunday) they want everyone out. There are 2,000 National Guard in the city - looks like it did after Katrina

[MAF]

well best to be safe W'chick, and hopefully landfall will not be so bad for the residents still in the shadow of Katrina

was just reading this from BBC

It is forecast to hit the US early next week, prompting evacuation plans in New Orleans, three years after the city was hit by Hurricane Katrina.

New Orleans and coastal Mississippi have been holding commemorations of the victims of Hurricane Katrina.

New Orleans buried the last seven unclaimed bodies of Katrina at a memorial site on Friday.

"We look ahead to a better day, as we also prepare ourselves for another threat," said Mayor Ray Nagin at the funeral.

[mountain shadow]

Tide info here: http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get...on=0&max=20

We have reservations in Monroe, will leave Sunday. Sorry I won't be able to give first hand reports!!! If a mandatory evacuation is called (which should happen tomorrow or Sunday) they want everyone out. There are 2,000 National Guard in the city - looks like it did after Katrina

Take care WeatherChick. Over the pond we might complain about the weather but we never experience the extremes that you do.

What is the general feeling in NO at the moment? If Gustav is as bad as Katrina will citizens return to rebuild? Do you feel it would be worth it?

[Guest weatherchick]

Take care WeatherChick. Over the pond we might complain about the weather but we never experience the extremes that you do.

What is the general feeling in NO at the moment? If Gustav is as bad as Katrina will citizens return to rebuild? Do you feel it would be worth it?

Thanks

The feeling here? One of panic. If the levees break New Orleans will become a memory. We've just begun to make strides in our rebuilding and all of that will be undone. It's a very scary thought. Looking over the city it makes me sad to think that it could once again be under water.