Hurricane Gustav

[Iceberg]

Assuming it's a typo pressure breifly down to 990 at Kingston and sustained winds of 44mph.

5 PM (21) Aug 28 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.32 (0993) WNW 44 rain showers; showers in the vicinity

4 PM (20) Aug 28 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.23 (0990) WNW 447 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity

[MAF]

well checking montego bay it would seem the pressure is correct around 0990-1000

[MAF]

Latest Sat imagage for Gustav

Courtesy NOAA

[Coopsy]

And here's the infared version

[Cookie]

another update

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 80% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 80% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like Gustav's centre is passing just south of Jamaica- this will bring the strongest winds on the south coast but torrential rains to the whole island. Gustav isn't forecast to be disrupted much anyway by Jamaica but as the centre seems to be remaining over water for now disruption will be even less of a problem for Gustav IMO. Also, the southwards shift in track means Cuba (particularly the eastern half) will now largely escape and land interaction will be minimal now here too, meaning more scope for intenification even before Gustav moves into the GOM.

[Cookie]

this is what I like about hurricanes over tornadoes they took much longer and last much longer the tornadoes do.

[MAF]

good call SS, so the longer it stays over water the more risk of it increasing in strength.

so as NOAA say

...DUE TO THE VERY WARM

WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT

IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT

WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY

SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT

FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV

COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...

[Somerset Squall]

this is what I like about hurricanes over tornadoes they took much longer and last much longer the tornadoes do.

Yes, fascinating these beasts are, especially as the often keep us guessing till the last minute!

[Cookie]

Yes, fascinating these beasts are, especially as the often keep us guessing till the last minute!

which the often do and theirs usually something to follow all year round but its usually you me and kold keeping an eye on things and not any of this intruders

Edited August 28, 2008 by cookie

[Guest weatherchick]

Well keep your head down weatherchick!

I'm planning on getting out of here!

[Cookie]

I'm planning on getting out of here!

take care of you're self we will be all thinking of you.

and please please let us know when u can when its over that you're ok :

[Guest weatherchick]

Thanks cookie - I will If the track doesn't shift significantly West I'm outta here Saturday morning.

[Cookie]

Thanks cookie - I will If the track doesn't shift significantly West I'm outta here Saturday morning.

what are they saying where you live at the moment regarding the track?

do you think a lot of people will be outta there if it dose head towards you?

[Guest weatherchick]

The local mets are being cautious. But I work in the Shell Building in NOLA and they are preparing for a hit. If it goes in just to the west of us that would be bad because not only would we have the Lake to contend with but the River also comes into play (think Betsy 1965). The levees along the Lake won't hold a Cat 3. At work we are preparing to evacuate as are most people I know.

[londonsnow]

The local mets are being cautious. But I work in the Shell Building in NOLA and they are preparing for a hit. If it goes in just to the west of us that would be bad because not only would we have the Lake to contend with but the River also comes into play (think Betsy 1965). The levees along the Lake won't hold a Cat 3. At work we are preparing to evacuate as are most people I know.

keep safe. still v difficult to know what gustav will do, but get out if it starts looking dodgy. best of luck

[kold weather]

Very interesting to see the LLC take a SW plunge, I dare say the mountions played a role in this one but its something I'll have a little better look into later.

Anyway Gustav should now track around the southern side of the island just like the thursday morning forecast from NHC suggested in the first place.

It also means its inner core won't be quite so disrupted as it would otherwise have been if it took a track overland.

My personal call for peak strength, 931mbs, 150mph, landfall of 120mph 939mbs, landfall in St.Mary county, LA.

Plenty of scope for it to hit just about anywhere at this stage however.

[MAF]

The local mets are being cautious. But I work in the Shell Building in NOLA and they are preparing for a hit. If it goes in just to the west of us that would be bad because not only would we have the Lake to contend with but the River also comes into play (think Betsy 1965). The levees along the Lake won't hold a Cat 3. At work we are preparing to evacuate as are most people I know.

i realise you have a lot to deal with if it strikes, but it would be great to get first hand reports here on NW from the area. hope you dont have to evacuate and that the severity drops to a safer level. keep us posted eh??

[0000]

i realise you have a lot to deal with if it strikes, but it would be great to get first hand reports here on NW from the area. hope you dont have to evacuate and that the severity drops to a safer level. keep us posted eh??

It s a dilema as a weatherhead mind mick,evacuate..............miss the greatest show on earth or be safe,personaly i'd get the kids away and stay lol

[Iceberg]

Gustav has moved off the coast now. We should see some action this evening. NHC have also said that it's a reasonable chance that Gustav will be a CAT 4 or 5 in 72 hrs time.!.

Track is still very much on for LA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

[Coast]

Looks like the models are in agreement about the general direction, its just a case of where it might hit the coastline now:

The NHC track has it landing West of New Orleans, somewhere around Vermilion Bay LA.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2008 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 80% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 75% currently

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Convection already wrapping around the center very nicely with central pressure of 992mbs. I think we are about to see Gustsv become a textbook hurricane in the next 36hrs.

[Iceberg]

Yes it really doesn't like land does it. The complete opposite of the last one.

Pressure upto 992mb.

190100 1759N 07618W 6977 03022 9929 +080 +080 214049 054 999 999 03

A very large swafe of sub 1000 winds which indicates this isn't as small as it once was...

NHC seem to concur, he has increased in size alot, this will make him slower to ramp up, but will also make him alot meaner.

Lots of recon planned for today and tomorrow so we should know exactly what he's upto.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND

IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT

HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF

GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE

TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE

OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

[kold weather]

Land has probably forced the circulation to get flabby but knowing what its inner core has been like the last 2 times its formed, I suspect gustav will still be fairly small in terms of the inner core and eye when it forms, though not as small as it was before it seems.

Anyway latest vortex message:

000

URNT12 KNHC 291008

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 29/09:43:40Z

B. 18 deg 08 min N

078 deg 02 min W

C. 700 mb 2981 m

D. 35 kt

E. 151 deg 14 nm

F. 226 deg 054 kt

G. 148 deg 019 nm

H. 990 mb

I. 6 C/ 3050 m

J. 11 C/ 3047 m

K. 6 C/ NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C10

N. 1234/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0907A GUSTAV OB 16

MAX FL WIND 54 KT SE QUAD 09:38:00 Z

RAGGED RADAR SIGNATURE

CENTER ON BEACH

Well looks like its going into the waters now, convection may reduce a little in strength for a few hours but once its transitioned back into the hot waters then we should see convection really deepening.

Edited August 29, 2008 by kold weather