Hurricane Gustav Pt II

[shuggee]

Please carry on discussing the Hurricane currently making its way north and west across the Gulf of Mexico.

Please stay on topic - we're here to discuss the weather :lol:

[Nick L]

When is Gustav expected to make landfall?

[Mondy]

Let's get a loop back up then.. :lol:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgevis.html

Some torrential rain already affecting the coastlines

[Cookie]

new thread thought id re post

[tinybill]

When is Gustav expected to make landfall?

7.30am their time about2. 30 our time in the afternoon

Edited August 31, 2008 by tinybill

[Paranoid]

I have a lot of doubts as to whether this storm will strengthen at all before making landfall. As i understand it Gustav is already over the warmest SST's and has in fact been weakening, and the waters near the gulf coast are cooler than these, so if anything we should see quicker weakening. I can't confirm any of this though and if someone could give me a second opinion it would be muchly appreciated.

[Cookie]

7.3m their time about2. 30 our time in the afternoon

tomorrow afternoon?

[Mondy]

I have a lot of doubts as to whether this storm will strengthen at all before making landfall. As i understand it Gustav is already over the warmest SST's and has in fact been weakening, and the waters near the gulf coast are cooler than these, so if anything we should see quicker weakening. I can't confirm any of this though and if someone could give me a second opinion it would be muchly appreciated.

Yes, Para

Gustav is now passing/passed the warmer waters of the GoM. It's tried to intesify again, but hasn't really managed; note the lack of any appreciable eye.

It's moving quickly towards the coastline ( I reckon landfall is sooner tomorrow than we think, unless he stalls) so as he enters cooler water, Gustav becomes even more muddled.

It's been over 12 hours since he left Cuba and hasn't shown anything like the rapid intensification we all thought he would. Pressure has gone up from 935mb (when over Cuba) to 960mb. Winds have dropped to 115mph also (which is still a hell of a speed) but he was pushing 150 just before Cuban landfall.

The sheer size of the system is the main worry now. Not so much the winds, but the eventual rainfall totals / surge.

[Paranoid]

Yeh as all that water is still there and has to go somewhere, and at this point weakening wont reduce the storm surge. If Gustav ever reaches Cat 5 it will be in post-season analysis before it made landfall on Cuba.

[textmum]

Re: Baton Rouge, my friend says it has a higher elevation, so is at less risk, although if the Mississippi River floods they could have problems!

[Somerset Squall]

I have a lot of doubts as to whether this storm will strengthen at all before making landfall. As i understand it Gustav is already over the warmest SST's and has in fact been weakening, and the waters near the gulf coast are cooler than these, so if anything we should see quicker weakening. I can't confirm any of this though and if someone could give me a second opinion it would be muchly appreciated.

It was never certain that Gustav would significantly intensify again. If we look back to earlier NHC forecasts they mentioned shear in the GOM which could potentially limit further intensification, and, IMO, this is what is happening currently. Gustav was disrupted after Cuba and then shear increased over the system. As Gustav was left in a weakened state after the land trek, it was more vunerable to the shear, which is between 10-20kts at the moment. It's still possible that Gustav may re-intensify to cat 4 but I have to say it hasn't surprised me that much that Gustav has struggled in the GOM so far.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[dvdfjojo]

I don't see any dry air in there on the WV images. NHC are still warning that they expect Gustav to strengthen to a Cat 4 before landfall. If that were to happen then the eye would need to show itself over the next few hours, wouldn't it? Makes it difficult to follow the exact track without the eye being visible - any late wobbles or changes to track probably won't be evident until it strengthens.

NHC have had the track nailed on for the past few days, I've gotta say - that's some great forecasting and hopefully there'll be less loss of life as a result.

Actually, latest visible seems to show the eye clearing out again so perhaps the strengthening is right on the money.

[SMU]

I will be watching Gustav very carefully over the next 2 hours.....

Things are starting to come together a little for him now after taking a bit of battering today-

If we get an eye clearing out in the heart of the CDO then its probably about the worst possible time if that combines with the shear relenting...

S

Edited August 31, 2008 by Steve Murr

[opplevelse]

It was never certain that Gustav would significantly intensify again. If we look back to earlier NHC forecasts they mentioned shear in the GOM which could potentially limit further intensification, and, IMO, this is what is happening currently. Gustav was disrupted after Cuba and then shear increased over the system. As Gustav was left in a weakened state after the land trek, it was more vunerable to the shear, which is between 10-20kts at the moment. It's still possible that Gustav may re-intensify to cat 4 but I have to say it hasn't surprised me that much that Gustav has struggled in the GOM so far.

Yep, the NHC were never overly confident, however I was wrong as I thought they were being overly conservative. I thought that low shear which was originally forecast along with the high SSTs would provide a perfect environment. However lack of moisture has been a problem and this is what seems to have encouraged the significant weakening over cuba, and he has not fully recovered.

Still fairly poor central convection with a hole in the SE quadrant. He could reintensify but it is not looking as certain as it was. ... now where the hell are the good sat passes? we havent had one for over 6 hrs!

[Fwoggie]

I don't see any dry air in there on the WV images. NHC are still warning that they expect Gustav to strengthen to a Cat 4 before landfall. If that were to happen then the eye would need to show itself over the next few hours, wouldn't it? Makes it difficult to follow the exact track without the eye being visible - any late wobbles or changes to track probably won't be evident until it strengthens.

NHC have had the track nailed on for the past few days, I've gotta say - that's some great forecasting and hopefully there'll be less loss of life as a result.

Actually, latest visible seems to show the eye clearing out again so perhaps the strengthening is right on the money.

Hello.

Greetings from Erdington

I'm looking at different images and see the same as you. The eye looks like its organising.

[SMU]

Hello.

Greetings from Erdington

I'm looking at different images and see the same as you. The eye looks like its organising.

Here we go guys good loop -

HERE

Notice the eye emerging in the centre of the CDO- good convection all around-

Its there just underneath that cirrus canopy...

S

[dvdfjojo]

Here we go guys good loop -

HERE

Notice the eye emerging in the centre of the CDO- good convection all around-

Its there just underneath that cirrus canopy...

S

Great link thanks - big west wobble there at the end or is that just the eye forming that's giving that impression???

[SMU]

Great link thanks - big west wobble there at the end or is that just the eye forming that's giving that impression???

Because the eye hasnt been centred in the heart of the CDO all day - ( off to the East of NE) then its been wobbling along like a flat tyre-

Once this clears then we will have a better estimate- although the link I provide below helps us decide where its gonna hit because the model guidence is transposed over the top ( Courtesy of Raleighwx)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/sa...atatcfzoom.html

It should be bending West soon- If it doesnt & maxes out close to landfall as a highend cat 3 then NOLA will be buried in the storm surge- especially the Northern Shores..

The lake is already up towards the 1 foot mark...

The very latest updated visible...

S

Edited August 31, 2008 by Steve Murr

[opplevelse]

Here we go guys good loop -

HERE

Notice the eye emerging in the centre of the CDO- good convection all around-

Its there just underneath that cirrus canopy...

S

hmmmm maybe ... I think I would like to see another 4 or 5 frames before call that an eye. You are probably right but I'd like to wait and see it.

BTW The dry air that was being talked about was while he wsa over cuba ... so it is not surprising you dont see it now!

[SMU]

hmmmm maybe ... I think I would like to see another 4 or 5 frames before call that an eye. You are probably right but I'd like to wait and see it.

BTW The dry air that was being talked about was while he wsa over cuba ... so it is not surprising you dont see it now!

Yes its not great yet & certainly isnt symetrical-

Although ^^^^^^^^ its looking better by the update... Lets see how it looks on the 10pm GMT Frame-

S

[Fwoggie]

There's an observation station at pilots station LA - link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pstl1. 28.932 N 89.407 W (use google maps to locate it). It's now starting to record an increase in sea level and drop in pressure. So far 1.5 ft above MLLW for water levels, 24 knots, gusting 31 knots.

[SMU]

The whole day Gustav has struggled on its Eastern & Nortehrn Quadrant-

Look at the towers going up though on this current loop-

http://i38.tinypic.com/15gxvyo.gif

S

[Gray-Wolf]

We are now seeing good convection in all quaters so I imagine that we will have a clear eye and a re-dropping of the central pressure before nightfall over there.

I think gustav's 'poor morning' has been overhyped by some of the U.S. weathermen/women on the feeds we have and I feel as soon as it looks like a Hurricane again, complete with a tight eye, they will be on the 'mother of all storms' rant again!

Interesting couple of hours ahead guys!

[opplevelse]

about 3 hrs ago

You can see the gap in the South East quad I was talking about earlier ...

[Mondy]

I take it all back! An eye is now forming - didn't half leave it late!