Hurricane Gustav Pt II

[dvdfjojo]

The whole day Gustav has struggled on its Eastern & Nortehrn Quadrant-

Look at the towers going up though on this current loop-

http://i38.tinypic.com/15gxvyo.gif

S

The latest VDM shows the eye open to the south-east and you can see that perfectly in the last frame of that loop you posted.

URNT12 KNHC 311947

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 31/19:16:50Z

B. 26 deg 04 min N

086 deg 56 min W

C. 700 mb 2747 m

D. 74 kt

E. 129 deg 024 nm

F. 233 deg 088 kt

G. 129 deg 024 nm

H. 957 mb

I. 14 C/ 3050 m

J. 16 C/ 3045 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. OPEN SE QUAD

M. C30

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF304 2207A GUSTAV OB 11

MAX FL WIND 105 KT NE QUAD 17:30:30 Z

MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 128 / 20NM

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 1923Z

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Here's the latest water vapour sat. Is it significant the water vapour has been piling up on the side of the loopcurrent?

The white gap of dry air in the centre is the eye.

[SMU]

This is probably the best visible loop thus far today for Gus- ( thats if your looking from a meteorological sense)

http://i336.photobucket.com/albums/n359/st...H_VIS_ANI-1.gif

Instead of concentrating on the eye look at the whole systems symmetry-

Its getting very circular with the outflow channels looking as though they are getting vented a lot stronger now-

the next stage to further intensification will be a clearing of the eye & wait for the VDM messages-

Ignore the pressure drops but look at data from lines I & J

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye:

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye:

Once the eyes closes off fully the LARGER the thermal gradient across the 2 the better for intensification- 10-12 degrees is good to go...

regards

Steve

PS Yes DVDF-- The key is a closed eyewall..

Edited August 31, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

Much the same loop as Steve posted above, but closer in and more up to date:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[summer blizzard]

The NHC expect Hurricane Gustav to make landfall as a strong category 3 hurricane (115KT, 130MPH), the last advisory had the intensity at 105KT (120mph).

My opinion on this is that this may well be right, however if the eye has a diameter of less than 20 miles, then be worried, Gustav still has around 18 hours over water, and with a pinhole eye could well see intensity quickly increase, maybe upto 145mph, which would be worse than Katrina as she was weakening at the time, though my expectation is for 135mph (weak category 4).

[Paranoid]

130mph is Category 4 isn't it?

Also, interesting to note that we're not even half way into the season yet and the ACE is almost what it was for the whole of the 2007 season.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Paranoid

[summer blizzard]

130mph is Category 4 isn't it?

No, 135mph is category 4, and 155mph is category 5.

[Fwoggie]

130mph is Category 4 isn't it?

131-155 is cat 4.

[Just Before Dawn]

Worth keeping an eye on the track, because in terms of the storm surge, the benthic and shore topography has implicatons for the height of the water. As I understand it, Katrina made landfall on the Louisiana/Mississippi border between Biloxi and Mandeville to the East of New Orleans. I think the NHC are forcasting that Gus will make land somewhere between Morgan City Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas. This may mean that the wind direction at landfall will be SE into Mississippi Bay, which is bad news given the potential funnel effect and the bottleneck of land between the bay and Lake Borgne and lake borgne and lake portchartrain is under significant threat, and that has implications for E New Orleans.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Just Before Dawn

[Mondy]

Gustav is moving very fast.

RGB loop is pretty conclusive with re: speed/direction/eye forming

[Fwoggie]

I just got name checked on citadel radio Cool...

They're suggesting that about 95% of NO has left. For sure the roads look VERY quiet from houston all the way across to the MS/AL border and NO looks deserted.

[Iceberg]

He really is running out of time. I think the eye is forming well, but whether it can just reform or whether it's got enough left to wind up is another matter.

We are looking at 12-15 hrs max before land interaction, cooling waters etc make their mark. On a positive note convection is flaring and should continue through the Diurnal max. The size of wind field etc though will give a lag time of 4-6 hrs for the winds to really respond.

Thankfully for the people of LA this is a very good scenario and it could very easily have been alot worse. The anti cyclone stayed the other size of Cuba, outflow and inflow channels never really got established and the eye wall just couldn't get it's act together.

[sabrewulf]

Gustav is moving very fast.

RGB loop is pretty conclusive with re: speed/direction/eye forming

earlier reports mentioned that it would hit land sometime tommorow - midday local time i think was mentioned.

but based on that image , is it likely that it might hit way sooner? it certainly does look as if its moving at one heck of a rate.

I just got name checked on citadel radio Cool...

They're suggesting that about 95% of NO has left. For sure the roads look VERY quiet from houston all the way across to the MS/AL border and NO looks deserted.

how did you get name checked? is there an email address for them.

would like to wish them well and say hello too.

(i was lurking in the thread earlier reading all the comments - fascinating stuff...)

[BARRY]

lastest news is that the wind speed are 115mph and it track has moved slightly nw and it's moving at about 18mph it is hoped that it's forward speed dou's not decrease

Edited August 31, 2008 by BARRY

[sabrewulf]

latest update from the NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/312039.shtml

[Fwoggie]

earlier reports mentioned that it would hit land sometime tommorow - midday local time i think was mentioned.

but based on that image , is it likely that it might hit way sooner? it certainly does look as if its moving at one heck of a rate.

how did you get name checked? is there an email address for them.

would like to wish them well and say hello too.

(i was lurking in the thread earlier reading all the comments - fascinating stuff...)

Email joe.dupree@citcomm.com.

[opplevelse]

still yet to be convinced of this eye. he is still looking ragged. The latest vis images shows what COULD be a very uneven eye, but that is hardly visible at all on the latest IR ...

Either way, he still looks awful compared to what I thought he would at this stage. Now the question is why? Is it shear?

[Just Before Dawn]

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL

TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER

OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

From the 5pm update from NHC thats a significant reduction - yesterday, figures of 16-22 feet were being mentioned.

[Fwoggie]

Given the situation, the latest discussion from NHC and sat images, I think it'll at worst get to a weak cat 4 and more likely stay as it is. Also, that's the third issue in a row where NHC has reduced storm surge. It was 20 ft, than 16 foot, now 12. If it drops below 10, and they're right, the levees "might" hold in many places.

[sabrewulf]

abc 33/40 blog - they're in the louisiana area , live blogging the storm with a meteorological team reporting.

http://www.alabamawx.com/

[Just Before Dawn]

Given the situation, the latest discussion from NHC and sat images, I think it'll at worst get to a weak cat 4 and more likely stay as it is. Also, that's the third issue in a row where NHC has reduced storm surge. It was 20 ft, than 16 foot, now 12. If it drops below 10, and they're right, the levees "might" hold in many places.

A surge of 10 feet generally (it'll vary with topography) really should be within the design standards of the repaired and improved defences. If it isn't, then that would be a national disgrace. Rainfall will be an issue, but certainly the trends are encouraging.

[mountain shadow]

What height storm surge did Katrina produce?

[Paranoid]

Katrina had a 30ft storm surge, i think that was the highest recorded in the Atlantic.

[Fwoggie]

What height storm surge did Katrina produce?

Mobile, MS, got 11.5 feet (give or take a few irrelevant cm).

[Just Before Dawn]

What height storm surge did Katrina produce?

In new orleans it was just under 12 feet - though that was probably an underestimate - in the bajou south of new orleans it was 13-14 feet and perhaps 18 feet on the Louisiana Alabama border but this area is very isolated.

The surge levels in Mobile AL was the 2nd highest they'd recorded - just lower than that recorded for the 1916 hurricane

Edited August 31, 2008 by Just Before Dawn