Hurricane Gustav Pt II

[robl1200]

I didnt see anything there about Grand Isle, but perhaps I didnt look closely enough? How do you know that grand Isle has been flooded?

Perhaps Because the storm surge is 12ft in height and the land is at sea level..go figure lol.

[Calrissian]

2 ships broke loose in the canal. A real threat possible.

--

*meanwhile, we now have Tropical Depression'9.

Ike...coming soon.

Calrissian: kick the baby! Don't kick the baby... Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Iceberg]

TD 9 is in the thread called TD 8 (obviously, mainly because I can't count ! )

[opplevelse]

Perhaps Because the storm surge is 12ft in height and the land is at sea level..go figure lol.

Makes sens, but it is still an assumption, not a verified fact? Calrisian posted like he knew it was a verified fact, I'd love to know where the verification came from!

[dogs32]

since I have been watching the live streams ..I can see the wind increasing already.Theres a telegraph pole swinging, about to come down...

Getting more and more windy as time goes by

edit rain lashing it down now in waves

Edited September 1, 2008 by dogs42

[knightstorm]

Our Scottish friends would call that a breezy day

All the hype really is ridculous

Lol, I had to laugth at that one! Remind us, when did Scotland last experience a hurricane?

[Ross B]

TD 9 is in the thread called TD 8 (obviously, mainly because I can't count ! )

Changed ;

Lol, I had to laugth at that one! Remind us, when did Scotland last experience a hurricane?

I think he was meaning the 76mph gust as a normal scottish windspeed... Not the 2ft of rain and huge storm surge though

[Marcus_surfer]

Gusts here on the mumbles coast are 57mph so no different in the weather here to what they are having!

[opplevelse]

Well he is now basically fully ashore and while the rain will continue for days and could cause a lot of flooding, the wind threat will begin to die.

To be honest Gustav was a fairly poor storm, with poor organisation and poor structure throughout its life (except for the bit between Jamaica and Cuba, where he was actually looking pretty nice.)

This is a good thing for the residents of LA.

But what happened to him? what was the key reason he did not really reform after Cuba, was it shear? Was it the injection of dry air as he left cuba? was it his speed?

I would be interested to hear some informed post analysis of him, as 3 days ago, everything looked like it was there for a very nasty storm ... what we have ended up with was a fairly tame rain and storm surge machine. Certainly still not one to be laughed at, but hardly "the Mother of all storms".

Thoughts?

[knightstorm]

Yeah but that 76mph is just a gust recorded at a particular point, it's probably one of the weaker gusts it dosn't represent the strength of the peak gusts, I reckon more like 120mph+ around the eye wall!

[bazookabob]

http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

Just a link to a news channel in NO showing water starting to pour over the Industrial Canal levy, here's hoping that it doesnt rise any more!

[Calrissian]

http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

Just a link to a news channel in NO showing water starting to pour over the Industrial Canal levy, here's hoping that it doesnt rise any more!

but its going to keep on rising for 12-18 hours I'd think. The loose barge/ship could easily weaken a levee wall. I've even read reports of cracks, although with so many miles of walls, that'd not be surprising.

but don't worry, the Bush will address the world in less than an hour. All is saved!

--

Calrissian: toppled over.

[dave48]

I have been watching the Fox news blanket coverage for a while now and the footage is incredible, it looks as if the water is just a foot or so below the upper 9th ward levee wall. The waves are lashing over it.

[knightstorm]

The next few hours are going to be critical!

[kaz]

I have been watching the Fox news blanket coverage for a while now and the footage is incredible, it looks as if the water is just a foot or so below the upper 9th ward levee wall. The waves are lashing over it.

Snap watching it to they seem to think that the danger has passed as the winds will chnge direction and suck the water back out the way it came ... Now how much of that is true i dunno. I dont think it has passed yet.

[knightstorm]

No way has it passed, it only officially reached New Orleans about 4 hours ago!

[robl1200]

Looking at the Satellite loop it seems Gustav is now tracking due West along the coastline.

[knightstorm]

According to Newsround it hasn't properly reached New Orleans yet! I thought it had, huh!?

[Megamoonflake]

The water is really starting to flow over that canal quite easily now, lets hope the levees stand firm! http://www.wdsu.com/video/17338135/index.html

[knightstorm]

Apparently winds are supposed to peak around 8 in the evening UK time!

Edited September 1, 2008 by knightstorm

[Calrissian]

http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38201.asx

coverage of the two loose HUGE cargo ships.

They are anchored, but not moored with ropes.

--

Meanwhile, the overtopping certainly looks as serious as anything we've seen so far. I'd still suggest another 6-18 hours when the pressure will be a critical issue.

Calrissian: awaiting Hurricane Hanna, TS Ike...and TD'10

[Nick L]

My god, watching that stream. It is being described as "flowing over like a waterfall", this is getting very bad indeed.

[knightstorm]

Peak winds due to hit New Orleans within the nxt hour! I think it could get alot worse before it gets better but I still don't think we're looking at the scale of devastation that Katrina caused!

[opplevelse]

Gustav is still showing a fair bit of convection despite being over land. and is tracking NW along the coast Wind speeds are still nothing special, but rainfall is not abating. NO Will see the worst of the storm surge in the next few hours. There is still a lot of moisture around him as can be seen in the vapour shot

He seems to be tracking a little more westwardly that was expected.

And I am going to repeat my previous question which would otherwise get lost in the chatter ...

Well he is now basically fully ashore and while the rain will continue for days and could cause a lot of flooding, the wind threat will begin to die.

To be honest Gustav was a fairly poor storm, with poor organisation and poor structure throughout its life (except for the bit between Jamaica and Cuba, where he was actually looking pretty nice.)

This is a good thing for the residents of LA.

But what happened to him? what was the key reason he did not really reform after Cuba, was it shear? Was it the injection of dry air as he left cuba? was it his speed?

I would be interested to hear some informed post analysis of him, as 3 days ago, everything looked like it was there for a very nasty storm ... what we have ended up with was a fairly tame rain and storm surge machine. Certainly still not one to be laughed at, but hardly "the Mother of all storms".

Thoughts?

[Fwoggie]

I believe Gustav didn't restrengthen because:

1) Hannah was a bit close and weakened it slightly.

2) It passed directly over a colder part of the ocean - a cooling eddy that spun off the loop current early July.

3) Wind shear definitely had an effect, as identified in discussion available from NHC earlier.

However.

I don't understand fully the meterological science surrounding the dry air. I get the concept, but don't get it enough in depth to give an opinion on that.