Hurricane Gustav Pt II

[opplevelse]

[stormchaser1]

check the below site out, some amazing videos

http://www.hurricanecity.com/

nigel

[Roger J Smith]

The report about flooding at Grand Isle comes from telephoned reports from CNN reporter who rode out the landfall there. Basically the island is covered by the surging Gulf to a depth of about five feet, then this spreads out into the extensive swamp-bayou region to the southwest of New Orleans.

Plenty of water pressure on levees around east side of New Orleans, so far so good ... but as Calrissian was noting, it was only near the end of the storm with Katrina that a major levee failure started the flooding.

Expecting some reports about damage (if any) to the Port Fouchon oil terminal, this is located close to the landfall west of Grand Isle. So far no news ... this is where about half of U.S. oil is imported for pipeline trans-shipment to Chicago and other inland areas.

Basic story right now is wait and see, the storm has probably peaked but will stay near peak for a while yet and so it's all down to whether levees hold or break. Wind damage will probably be generally light except perhaps around Houma which took the biggest hit, luckily most of the area near landfall is swamp and uninhabited so the 100-120 mph winds mostly blew themselves down to 80-90 mph before reaching any populated areas around Houma. But there are embedded tornadoes in the various bands and these can do some localized severe damage too.

[tinybill]

The report about flooding at Grand Isle comes from telephoned reports from CNN reporter who rode out the landfall there. Basically the island is covered by the surging Gulf to a depth of about five feet, then this spreads out into the extensive swamp-bayou region to the southwest of New Orleans.

Plenty of water pressure on levees around east side of New Orleans, so far so good ... but as Calrissian was noting, it was only near the end of the storm with Katrina that a major levee failure started the flooding.

Expecting some reports about damage (if any) to the Port Fouchon oil terminal, this is located close to the landfall west of Grand Isle. So far no news ... this is where about half of U.S. oil is imported for pipeline trans-shipment to Chicago and other inland areas.

Basic story right now is wait and see, the storm has probably peaked but will stay near peak for a while yet and so it's all down to whether levees hold or break. Wind damage will probably be generally light except perhaps around Houma which took the biggest hit, luckily most of the area near landfall is swamp and uninhabited so the 100-120 mph winds mostly blew themselves down to 80-90 mph before reaching any populated areas around Houma. But there are embedded tornadoes in the various bands and these can do some localized severe damage too.

http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

great coverge but i think the next worry is were td-9 going to once it get in to the gulf

[NorthantsSnow]

Weakened further to category 1 hurricane according to Sky.

[stormchaser1]

BBC NEWS JUST DOWNGRADED GUSTAV TO A CATEGORY 1

NIGEL

[Zenarcher]

You keep keep a watch here http://windmapper.com/?Loc=CW also you can check the pressure looks tight.

[Mondy]

What Gustav did to the Cayman islands last week

Loads more pics in the above link

Edited September 1, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[MKN]

So called storm of the century? I think hes gonna look a little stupid, wind speeds of 91mph are not that impressive.

[Fwoggie]

So called storm of the century? I think hes gonna look a little stupid, wind speeds of 91mph are not that impressive.

He might look a little stupid, but he shouldn't. At the time when he gave that (probably now infamous) press conference, NHC - amongst other professional meterological sources - were advising that he was looking at about 26 foot of storm surge and a high cat 4 low cat 5. He had to make a call based on the best info to him at the time.

It would be inadvisable to dismiss such wind speeds and don't think I'm not - one only has to look at the damage caused by the likes of Wilma and Andrew in the US and Larry or Tracy in Australia for example but it was the storm surge that would have convinced him. The highest recorded storm surge during Katrina depending on which historical source you read varies between 11.5 feet and 14 feet. There is absolutely no way in hell the current levee system would have handled 26 feet of surge.

An article in the NY Times in the aftermath of Katrina - http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/29/national...al/29flood.html - indicated that to build the levees up to cat 5 capability would cost in the region of $32 billion at absolute minimum. Given the population of NO is supposedly 380,000, that is a phenomenally high price to pay for that size population. However, cities around the world that are at risk - including London - will have to start weighing this up. It's one thing to abandon New Orleans, it is another to abandon London. No in depth study of the cost of a new Thames Barrier has been done but it is agreed that it is required, soon, due to rising sea levels. The general figure being bandied about for a suitable barrier and upgrades to associated flood defences to protect London is estimated at a cool £20 billion, or if you like 2 London Olympics.

Nagin will probably be proud of the fact that he made the call, got it wrong but made the right call anyway. It doesn't make up for him dropping the ball for Katrina mind, but it's better than nothing.

Edited September 1, 2008 by Fwoggie

[opplevelse]

Agreed fwoggie it was the right call to make at the time, the fact he turned out to be a bit of a lame duck has nothing to do with it ... it could have very much gone the other way.

I believe Gustav didn't restrengthen because:

1) Hannah was a bit close and weakened it slightly.

2) It passed directly over a colder part of the ocean - a cooling eddy that spun off the loop current early July.

3) Wind shear definitely had an effect, as identified in discussion available from NHC earlier.

However.

I don't understand fully the meterological science surrounding the dry air. I get the concept, but don't get it enough in depth to give an opinion on that.

Well done for actually discussing the weather and not ambulance chasing as many of the children here appear to be doing.

IMHO

1) I very much doubt that Hannah is a long long way from gustav, and I doubt she could even rob moisture!

2) I did not see that at all! The SST's were all high throughout his track?! Why do you say that?

3) I agree, but where is the evidence?

[Fwoggie]

Agreed fwoggie it was the right call to make at the time, the fact he turned out to be a bit of a lame duck has nothing to do with it ... it could have very much gone the other way.

Well done for actually discussing the weather and not ambulance chasing as many of the children here appear to be doing.

IMHO

1) I very much doubt that Hannah is a long long way from gustav, and I doubt she could even rob moisture!

2) I did not see that at all! The SST's were all high throughout his track?! Why do you say that?

3) I agree, but where is the evidence?

Lemme see if I can find the cold eddy stuff and the wind shear discussions. Could be hard, will give it a crack.

A link for readers in general: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/0...;feed=worldnews. The article itself is not what I'm interested in though, it's that chilling picture provided by AFP. It sums up just how close it was this time.

As a side note (and more for the thread provided for it), just to point out - depression 9 - soon to be TS Ike is forecast to intensify and thread the needle between the Keys and Cuba. Obviously that's REALLY bad.

Agreed fwoggie it was the right call to make at the time, the fact he turned out to be a bit of a lame duck has nothing to do with it ... it could have very much gone the other way.

Well done for actually discussing the weather and not ambulance chasing as many of the children here appear to be doing.

IMHO

1) I very much doubt that Hannah is a long long way from gustav, and I doubt she could even rob moisture!

2) I did not see that at all! The SST's were all high throughout his track?! Why do you say that?

3) I agree, but where is the evidence?

Found it - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...p;tstamp=200808 :-)

[Fwoggie]

Baton Rouge radio is reporting that Placaman (think I spelt that right) parish just lost its levee. That's not a critical levee though for the main city, this levee is related to the mississippi river apparently. Don't know any more, but the radio isn't overly excited about it.

[bybo1999]

Baton Rouge radio is reporting that Placaman (think I spelt that right) parish just lost its levee. That's not a critical levee though for the main city, this levee is related to the mississippi river apparently. Don't know any more, but the radio isn't overly excited about it.

You Can See The Coverage Here For Plaquemines Parish levee damage

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

[sabrewulf]

hey folks - apologies - but this isnt weather related. but i thought i'd post about what i was seeing on ABC 33/40 tv , which i was watching this afternoon via the internet.

(via this link: http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html)

they were OVER THE MOON with all the emails they were getting from all over the place - UK, France, Bulgaria, Australia etc...

they really really appreciated it - and i'm sure this forum, with all the links being posted, helped in getting the word out about where to get live streams, such as that tv station.

the appreciation and love and good wishes from across the world was very touching - and by golly did those ABC folks seem overawed by it.

well done netweather.tv - you made some folks happy in what is a terrible situation to be in... and that can only be a good thing.

Edited September 1, 2008 by sabrewulf

[summer blizzard]

Agreed fwoggie it was the right call to make at the time, the fact he turned out to be a bit of a lame duck has nothing to do with it ... it could have very much gone the other way.

Well done for actually discussing the weather and not ambulance chasing as many of the children here appear to be doing.

IMHO

1) I very much doubt that Hannah is a long long way from gustav, and I doubt she could even rob moisture!

2) I did not see that at all! The SST's were all high throughout his track?! Why do you say that?

3) I agree, but where is the evidence?

In regards to Hurricane Hannah, throughout most of his life, she has actually been enhacing the outflow of Hurricane Gustav.

Basically, when you have two Tropical systems in close proximity, what tends to happen is that the weaker one enhances the outflow of the stronger one, and usually gets killed off as a result of this, however i believe that she was partly responsible for weakening Gustav prior to landfall after his good look last night, because as Hannah was over the higher heat content of the two, the situation reversed and Hannah began drawing moisture from Gustav.

[Fwoggie]

St Bernards Parish's levee has gone too. I don't know how critical that is.

St Bernards Parish's levee has gone too. I don't know how critical that is.

Correction it hasn't gone yet, it's seats of the pants desperation to shore it up, quote from latest news:-

n East Bank levee is being topped due to rising waters in the aftermath of Gustav. An urgent plea is going out to all residents in the area to leave now!

The levee is near the St. Bernard Parish line and is a private levee (not part of the federal levee system) known as the Caernarvon Diversion Levee.

An all out effort is underway to sandbag and prevent massive flooding.

The levee overtopping was reported at approximately 3:15pm and at that time was just beginning to top over. However, there is concern that this could be a losing battle. It's believed there are a number of people who stayed in their homes in Braithwaite to ride out Gustav...and Parish President Billy Nungesser is urging them to leave immediately. The Plaquemines Parish Sheriff's Department is going door to door to assist in any needed rescues. This levee protects the Braithwaite area.

St. Bernard Parish Sheriff Jack Stephens is providing 2,000 sandbags to assist Plaquemines Parish. All available parish workers are joining Parish President Billy Nungesser to fortify the levee with these sandbags and more sandbags that Plaquemines Parish had stockpiled on the East bank in preparation for Gustav. Help is also coming from Orleans Parish-Sheriff Gusman is sending a number of trustees to help in the flood fighting

Approximately 125 to 200 homes could be affected in the Braithwaite area.

*Note: This levee was heavily damaged by Hurricane Katrina. Earlier this year, Parish workers rebuilt the levee and raised it to approximately 8 feet. This was done by the Parish because no federal dollars were forthcoming to fix the levee. Residents in the area took about ten feet of water in their homes during Katrina.

[Cookie]

I have just caught up glad the winds weren't as bad as they could have been now we have to wait to here the news of the death toll hopefully little as possible!

[Cookie]

final warning on Gustav

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shreveport (32.6 N, 94.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

HAVANA (Reuters) - Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro said on Wednesday that Hurricane Gustav hit Cuba like a nuclear bomb and left authorities struggling to feed people on the hard-hit Isle of Youth. In a column on the Internet, he said Gustav, which slammed into western Cuba with winds of 150 mile per hour (240 kilometres per hour) on Saturday, had damaged or destroyed 100,000 houses and dealt a blow to agriculture.

He said television shots from the Isle of Youth, which is 40 miles (64 km) off Cuba's southwestern coast "reminded me of the desolation I saw when I visited Hiroshima," referring to the Japanese city destroyed by a U.S. nuclear bomb in 1945 at the end of World War Two. "Now the battle is to feed the hurricane victims," Castro wrote, saying that only two of 16 bakeries on the island were functioning.

The ailing 82-year-old, who has become a prolific column writer since giving up power to brother Raul Castro following undisclosed surgery two years ago, printed a letter from a friend from the Isle of Youth who said authorities estimated that 20,000 of the 25,000 houses on the island had been damaged. On Tuesday, state-run news agency AIN said in a story quoting Cuba Vice President Carlos Lage that more than 90,000 homes had been damaged or destroyed in the mainland province of Pinar del Rio, which Gustav struck after raking over the Isle of Youth.

Pinar del Rio has about 750,000 residents and the Isle of Youth about 86,000. No deaths from the storm have been reported. Castro warned that recovering from Gustav would require sacrifice on the part of Cubans and that the cost would be high.

[knightstorm]

Thank god it wernt as powerful when it got to New Orleans!

[Cookie]

poor Cuba!

[Somerset Squall]

poor Cuba!

Indeed, and as usual, most of the media attention was on New Orleans when Cuba was really the hardest hit by Gustav.

[Cookie]

doesn't surprise me and you know you're self how little or no media coverage some big hurricanes get at other times of the year in other parts of the world the yet they can kill as many or more people!

[ChartViewer]

Stunning picture of Gustav as it approached Jamaica (from the NASA site)

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271146m...015046_high.jpg