Global Cooling

[SP1986]

See the struck thru bit - minus that,this more or less says what I've been banging on about for ages but no-one takes a blind bit of notice! Ah well. However,there is currently no warming trend (how many more times...?). What has more snow in our lifetime got to do with anything? All those places around the NH which saw snow for the first time last winter,and all those who got more than they've ever seen before. 'Course,this is only to be expected in a warming world . We'll get ours,don't worry about that. Anyways,if I wanted snow so badly (I don't!) and also believed the CO2 theory,dontcha think I too would be clamouring to reduce emissions if only for that reason?

Anyway,sorry for this brief interruption - this is already becoming a substitute for the limbo'd General Thread,don't want this to go the same way for that reason!

Well add it back in pal because it's happening now, and has happened before

I agree with you about the saving resources thing, that is the most important thing. Humans impact on our ecological systems and general species is horrendous, it really needs sorting out given we know that this happening right now.

I still believe it's warming though!

peace though, I do respect your opinion, have a beer on me!

[laserguy]

I agree with you about the saving resources thing, that is the most important thing. Humans impact on our ecological systems and general species is horrendous, it really needs sorting out given we know that this happening right now.

Too right. This is the sort of thing GW goes on relentlessly about - he doesn't realise it but I am in full agreement with him!! (Hello Ian!). Well of course I respect your opinion too,and after all the jury is still well and truly out re: AGW (whatever one may read from certain sources),so yes we are entitled to reach our own conclusions. Love and peace to you too,and everyone else - this is 'just' a forum!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hansen, GISS, NASA cannot be trusted...pure warmism nonsense..and dangerous. The cooling is well underway now and it will be 'obvious' in 2012-2015 years as I have always stated.

BFTP

[laserguy]

Hansen, GISS, NASA cannot be trusted...pure warmism nonsense..and dangerous. The cooling is well underway now and it will be 'obvious' in 2012-2015 years as I have always stated.

BFTP

Well I'm not going to say you are right there BFTP,I'll only get shouted at. So I'll say that I agree fully with that. And many times this year I've said 2008 will see AGW exit the building. I shouldn't have to clarify that such a statement is merely an expression of my thoughts rather than a declaration of fact - though it's often interpreted that way. Unlike the warmist nonsense which is treated as being a given by the PTB. Anyway,at least one other person now says AGW put it's coat on and snuck out while no-one was looking. This,from the excellent 'Greenie Watch' website.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Physicist predicts man-made global warming bubble to burst in 2008

Note below from Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen, an MIT educated physicist, author of the book An Introduction to High-Temperature Superconductivity, and writer of the popular newspaper column "Ask the Everyday Scientist."

One day back in February on a ski-lift, I commented to the others that 2008 would be the year when the "Anthropic Global Warming" (AGW) bubble would burst. My prediction seems to be coming true.

Owing to bad economic conditions, most of the countries in Europe are fleeing from the commitments they once made to the "Kyoto treaty" to reduce emissions of CO2. Scientists all over the world are speaking up against the notion of a "consensus", the presumption that "everybody agrees" that global warming is caused by mankind (the AGW hypothesis). Nobody has any confidence any more in long-range computer calculations that are unable to predict the past, let alone the future. And most of all, people are beginning to remember that CO2 is plant food.

This all comes at the time when the incoming administration of Obama seems about to impose draconian and expensive regulations (on CO2 emissions) upon American industry and utilities.

The article about NASA's embarrassing correction of faulty data, is typical of what is going on in the world. Five years ago, a blunder like this would have been swept under the rug by the mentality that "it's so important that we raise awareness of people that we should overlook little things like numerical facts." But now when it happens, it gets publicized.

The whole "sure thing" AGW tapestry began to unravel about 5 years ago when a widely-publicized historical temperature graph known as the "hockey stick" was completely discredited based on statistical analysis. That began a slow trickle of scientists saying "Oh yeah ... and another thing ..." Gradually the number of scientists willing to speak out (against the presumption that mankind causes global warming) has increased, and by now you can read of controversy every day.

Probably what will happen in the USA will mirror the European response. Dire predictions about climate will have to wait "just a little bit" while economic recession is cured, but "we'll get to it right away just as soon as we can." With the passage of a few more years of unexciting world temperature data, while CO2 from India and China continues to climb, perhaps the whole AGW issue will finally be discarded.

[Iceberg]

Hansen, GISS, NASA cannot be trusted...pure warmism nonsense..and dangerous. The cooling is well underway now and it will be 'obvious' in 2012-2015 years as I have always stated.

BFTP

BFTP, Any evidence to back this up ?.

Looking at the evidence I have posted on here it seems to be the opposite. I've noticed that you've not responded to it in any way.

Would you like to ?.

THE GISS data set is probably the most looked at/examined in the world, every tiny fault is blown up and notified to the world.

[Android]

"One day back in February on a ski-lift, I commented to the others that 2008 would be the year when the "Anthropic Global Warming" (AGW) bubble would burst. My prediction seems to be coming true."

There's so much wrong with this. For a start what on Earth is the relevance of telling us he was on a ski-lift?

We all know full well that AGW will stand or fall depending what temperatures do. Skeptics have lined up for flat/cooling over coming decades so their position will be severely compromised and AGW reinforced if temperatures resume climbing. On the otherhand if temperature is flat over coming decades them AGW will be just about disproven.

It's silly to think that some error at GISS has "unravelled" AGW as if a scientific theory can be unspun by mere day to day events that have nothing to do with the theory or what it predicts.

[laserguy]

There's so much wrong with this. For a start what on Earth is the relevance of telling us he was on a ski-lift?

What's the relevance of Al's styrofoam ice,or the endless stream of knocked -up numbers to uphold the myth when real events tell another story? What's the relevance of anything,really,in this shady world of half-truths and agendas? Face it,AGW is a dead duck. Prodding and poking the damn thing ain't going to resurrect it. It's like looking wistfully at a photo of a departed loved one and convincing yourself that they're still here. AGW is manmade alright - in his head.

[osmposm]

Well I'm not going to say you are right there BFTP,I'll only get shouted at.

You generally only get shouted at, Barrie, when you start the shouting - and in particular when it comes in the form of accusations of idiocy, corruption, deliberate lying, being members of a "mob", etc etc.

Your opinions, presented with restraint, are always welcome to me - and even more so when they are accompanied by evidence (or links to evidence) that support your strong 'gut instinct'.

Anyway, in the unlikely event that the AGW bubble does burst in what remains of this year, that would be scientifically very unsound. It would be an unwise man who concludes anything much after what is still a very short period of possible temperature stasis or reversal. The warming may have stopped....the warming may even have started reversing....or the warming may have just temporarily slowed/plateaued/been overwhelmed by a natural cyclical cooling phase. It is far too early to conclude it's all over - we would need another decade of stability or a significant drop back down towards mid-80s levels before I relaxed a little.

Still, for once I think this winter may be quite chilly by recent standards, and I do look forward to a bit of snow (for about ten minutes!).

Ossie

[laserguy]

'Morning Ossie! What you doing up at this time? Nah,I can't sleep either - the curse of an overactive mind. Comments noted,thanks. Are you a psychologist as well as an actor!? You want links? Here's an interesting tidbit (inc further links) for you to be going on with:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/OctoberData.pdf

You want snow? You've already had some - in October for pity's sake!

Must catch a few winks now,catch you later?

[Filski]

It should be noted that the 'cooling' has a long way to go before matching what happened in the 60's. We aren't even close. And we all know that it was a minor blip in a larger warming trend.

By 2015 I expect that we'll look back fondly at 1998 and remember how cool the world was... :lol:

[laserguy]

'Morning to you too,Filski! Yeah sleep still evades me. Anyway,I found this guy's take on things interesting - his explanation of the alleged (sorry!) warming of recent decades and why a cooling is-a-coming,(I note your reference to the 60's)and also why warming is preferable to cooling anyway. As if we had any say in the matter!

http://bravenewclimate.files.wordpress.com...ge_wij_23_4.pdf

[Iceberg]

I'll bite we have a wine journal giving us the truth about global warming........

Firstly his assumption is wrong the period between 79 and now has been largely neutral ENSO wise and is not predominently El Nino it has in fact gone slightly towards a La Nina.

Secondly he's put the warming on solar cycles as well, however is figure 2 shows no correlation what so ever.

Thirdly he's actually saying that 2009 will be warmer than 2008 and not that cooling will continue as we enter a new sunspot cycle.

In response to the cooling climate charge please see the 30 year rolling climatic average that I've plotted and how it continues to increase.

[osmposm]

Nice graph, Ice, for seeing the longer view....though taken on its own, of course, the slowing of the last decade (if real) is not reflected, which is perhaps a bit unfair if you take the 'cooling has now started' view. At some point could you possibly do 20-year Rolling and 10-year Rolling ones too? I assume it's showing global temps - and what's the data source?

Ossie

'Morning Ossie! What you doing up at this time? Nah,I can't sleep either - the curse of an overactive mind. Comments noted,thanks. Are you a psychologist as well as an actor!? You want links? Here's an interesting tidbit (inc further links) for you to be going on with:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/OctoberData.pdf

You want snow? You've already had some - in October for pity's sake!

Must catch a few winks now,catch you later?

V interesting link, thanks - will look at closer later.

Oh, and here in barely-above-sea-level South London we didn't really get the snow, dammit. Perhaps crossing the warm waters of Old Father Thames was the final straw for the arctic blast.....and besides, melting slushy snow doesn't count - it has to be deep and crisp and even!

[Iceberg]

I could Ossie (it uses hadcru3 as it's got the length of time needed to support a 30 year average (msu etc are all too new) but 30 years is used as it shows the change to climate. Any shorter than that and you are showing temperature variability rather than climatic trends, I am not denying that there has been recent global cooling, which as an aside has reacted in exactly the way predicted including the anticipated warm up again this year, but that the trends of climate change haven't been effected.

Cheers

[Iceberg]

Just to let people know ( see I am not totally bias).

GISS/NASA have had a real bummer and have revisted there figures for the entire year and they have gone down quite a lot.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

14 25 62 36 40 32 52 39 50 55

I will be updating my spreadsheet. It doesn't effect the trend but obviously it now more closely in line with the HADCRU figures.

[pottyprof]

I'm not going to laugh Iceberg.........

Well... Not much anyway..

[Iceberg]

Personally I think this shows how strong the AGW science is. Sceptics play an important role (at least some of them) challenging the science, the slightest error is brought to everyones attention, updates are made and the case becomes stronger i.e Mann and his re-writes. Given all this there are very few holes left in the AGW theory.

WRT the GISS data error, this is pretty poor and I have to admit it's probably the least reliable of the 3 main temperature indexes. Hence why I haven't ever plotted it. It is however reasonably accurate and does have it uses.

It's a bit like the GFS in that it tries to be better and more comprehensive than the European ones but even though its more available etc it never really grasps the situation and is prone to bouts of stupidity which are quickly recognised and corrected in future iterations.

Edited November 18, 2008 by Iceberg

[pottyprof]

I just wonder if they are going to look back over the last few years for errors..?

[Gray-Wolf]

From NCDC......

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Year-to-date

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005). The ranks found in the tables below are based on records that began in 1880.

October 2008 ranked as the second warmest October since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, behind 2003. Temperatures were warmer than average across Asia, Australia, Europe, and northern Canada, prompting the October 2008 global land surface anomalies to be the warmest on record. The global average ocean surface temperature (SST) in October was the sixth warmest on record.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warmest Global Land temps since records began? Cooling??

EDIT: Whoopsie! I forgot the contarians don't do records that disagree with their prognosis.........

Edited November 19, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

From NCDC......

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Year-to-date

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005). The ranks found in the tables below are based on records that began in 1880.

October 2008 ranked as the second warmest October since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, behind 2003. Temperatures were warmer than average across Asia, Australia, Europe, and northern Canada, prompting the October 2008 global land surface anomalies to be the warmest on record. The global average ocean surface temperature (SST) in October was the sixth warmest on record.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warmest Global Land temps since records began? Cooling??

EDIT: Whoopsie! I forgot the contarians don't do records that disagree with their prognosis.........

GW

You know those figures are unsafe.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

GW

You know those figures are unsafe.

BFTP

B) :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

Still no sign of any 'cooling' there then.......... I wonder what will happen when ENSO turns from neutral to the El-Nino state??

Throughout the last La-Nina's impacts we have watched global temps (land,sea and combined) still manage to come out in the top ten temp range of our 'recorded Global temps'

I think what we are seeing is how the arctic amplification can overshadow the 'cooling' we are meant to be undergoing by keeping higher latitude temps well above their average temps and 'skewing' the Global results. This 'autumnal effect' of heat loss from the northern oceans (where once was perennial ice and a cold sealed system) is now set to be a part of our climate system and ,as predicted, it is seeming to moderate the current negative climatic signals .More worryingly must be the possibility of it amplifying/enhancing the positive ones.

As we know the ENSO states tend to drive global weather patterns and I have to wonder whether the next El-Nino, augmented by Arctic Amplification, will overturn the current 'cool phases' and drive us straight into a renewed warming phase. We are told to expect more rapid warming beyond 2015, is that now going to be brought forward to the next El-Nino phase of ENSO?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GW

When will you stop using the out of date 30 year mean. Until we get there [and we will] you need to show the 71-00 and I'm sure it will paint a different picture.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

GW

When will you stop using the out of date 30 year mean. Until we get there [and we will] you need to show the 71-00 and I'm sure it will paint a different picture.

BFTP

Take it up with the NOAA BFTP!

I , like them, don't believe in changing the goal posts half way through a match and ,as such ,will continue to use the figures provided to give us a 'flavour' of the global climate month upon month.

Here is a link to their 'State of the climate' site and I'm sure you will get a detailed response as to why they will not chop and change their baselines as it may provide a 'skewed' version of the truth.

I take it that you do not have the same concerns over the NOAA's ranking of the month in terms of land,sea and combined temperatures for the month or are they all disagreeable to your theory too?.

They are still well up the top 10 warmest for the month aren't they???

Edited December 20, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[PersianPaladin]

I personally feel that the chart there is pretty conclusive; despite the seeming colder synoptic trends over the past year in the northern hemisphere.

More greenhouse gases has resulted in climate destabilisation as well as the simple correllation of higher temperature anamolies. The debate is over, it is now time for action.