Global Cooling

[pottyprof]

As I said elsewhere.. November came out 7th warmest since the peak November in 2001. Its now 2008.. Seems to fit in rather nicely this year with a possible cooling off for that particular month.. ?

[Optimus Prime]

Still no sign of any 'cooling' there then.......... I wonder what will happen when ENSO turns from neutral to the El-Nino state??

I don't understand how Autumn was 2c above normal for the UK. against the 61-90 baseline it was -0.16c below.

[Hiya]

I don't understand how Autumn was 2c above normal for the UK. against the 61-90 baseline it was -0.16c below.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/resea...9-200811-pg.gif

This is the one that is supposed to show that kind of data, a bit more of the truth in it.

cf http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/200...%20Stations.jpg

Edited December 20, 2008 by Hiya

[Roger J Smith]

The debate is not over and the warming side appear to be in total disarray in North America, unable to come close to explaining how this can be the coldest December in half a century or more in much of the continent. Yet a theory based on natural variations can, and did. Right here on NW in another thread.

I describe the current situation in our profession as meteorological civil war. The operational side generally think the theory is daft and under-researched nonsense. The academic and research side have all their career options in the one basket and can't back down, don't want to lose face, and in some cases probably still believe their own sermons.

Many have totally given up on this theory as being unsustainable with clear attempts to manipulate the data, public opinion and the political debate.

Look, imagine how you would feel in the UK if it were like February 1947 outside right now. That's basically the situation faced by the global warming lobby in large parts of North America. Take for example Chicago, which is Obama's home town. Today, it was -18 C there with a -30 C wind chill. The normal temperature at this time of year is about +3 C.

Or in my own case here, we have had eleven days with sub-freezing temperatures and snowfall most of those days. The normal high here is +7 C. It is becoming a sort of theatre of the absurd to discuss the urgent problems of global warming especially in the current economic situation.

The debate may be over in the other direction.

[Filski]

If we are going to take single days or weeks as significant then global warming has hit London right now with temps very warm.

Of course we know why we shouldn't take short time frames on which to judge the climate.

[Solar Cycles]

AGW has become the new god, one which must be obeyed, worshiped, and financed. Warmist have become so entrenched in their views, that no mount of cooling would be able to change there viewpoint. So where does that leave those of us, unhappy with a theory that does not follow what is happening in the real world. Unfortunately the words damned for eternity spring to mind!

[Essan]

The debate is not over and the warming side appear to be in total disarray in North America, unable to come close to explaining how this can be the coldest December in half a century or more in much of the continent.

This is what I don't understand. How on earth did people come up with the idea that with an underlying global warming trend, natural variations ceases to exist and we cannot have any cold weather? I know the deniers have been setting up the idea that "AGW = everywhere gets warmer every year and therefore a cold year disproves it" as a straw man for some time. Presumably they're persuaded the public that their false and disingenuous argument is correct?

I guess that's what happens when people listen to the media and politicans and not the science....

[reef]

2008 the 10th warmest year on record according to the MetOffice:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20081216.html

[Methuselah]

AGW has become the new god, one which must be obeyed, worshiped, and financed. Warmist have become so entrenched in their views, that no mount of cooling would be able to change there viewpoint. So where does that leave those of us, unhappy with a theory that does not follow what is happening in the real world. Unfortunately the words damned for eternity spring to mind!

And so far, we have seen just how much global cooling, exactly?

[SP1986]

I think that many can forget that 1-2 years of cooler weather does not equal overall cooling. If for the last 10 years it hasn't been rising but staying around the same baseline, that is not really cooling. I think that in 10-20 years we'll have an idea of whether we are going through a climatic cooling episode. Until then we can continue witnessing an overall longer term warming trend (with short terms cooling events), or we can keep debating this to the death! I'd say the second one will probably be the favourite

[WS Evolution]

In the short term (1-2 years) the world is cooling. Overall (100s of years) the world cools and warms so its a fluctuating trend! The trend for the last 20 years is a warming trend... When we talk of trends we need to state the time line we are talking about other wise is meaningless.

Without fulling understanding all the drivers in climate no one can say for sure if the world will continue to cool or to continue to warm or stay relatively constant. My personal thoughts are we have passed the peak of global warming and are entering a phase of global cooling which will be significant in terms of our life time and significant in terms of the next 20 years, but it would be wrong to rule out the possibility of further warming.

[Gray-Wolf]

As I said elsewhere.. November came out 7th warmest since the peak November in 2001. Its now 2008.. Seems to fit in rather nicely this year with a possible cooling off for that particular month.. ?

What you have neglected to say is that in the last decade the year 2000 was the coolest , which would seem to indicate (from your repeated observations) that we have wamed from the cold 2000 temps but appear now cooling back towards them?

We will see what an ENSO neutral year can bring to the 'variations'!

[Gray-Wolf]

And more telling, didn't 2000 have a similar sized La-Nina event to the last one and yet was still a cooler year than this???

Edited December 22, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

I think that many can forget that 1-2 years of cooler weather does not equal overall cooling. If for the last 10 years it hasn't been rising but staying around the same baseline, that is not really cooling. I think that in 10-20 years we'll have an idea of whether we are going through a climatic cooling episode. Until then we can continue witnessing an overall longer term warming trend (with short terms cooling events), or we can keep debating this to the death! I'd say the second one will probably be the favourite

I think you've summed it up quite nicely there, Steve.

It was, I think, the (globally) very cold year of 1976, that started off all the talk of an impending Ice-Age. We could, IMHO, take that example of how a one-off temperature variation can mean so very little!

[Iceberg]

And more telling, didn't 2000 have a similar sized La-Nina event to the last one and yet was still a cooler year than this???

Completely agree GW, I have been very busy with Christmas this week, but looking on her it's more of the same. It's a shame that some of the coolist brigade havent looked at my ENSO tempeature correlation and the base increase in temperature trend over the last 30 years when the SHORT term climatic fluctuations of ENSO etc are taken into account. That the cooler global temperatures at the start of the year where fully predictable, that the warmer temperatures now at the end of the year were fully predictable.

[Iceberg]

The debate is not over and the warming side appear to be in total disarray in North America, unable to come close to explaining how this can be the coldest December in half a century or more in much of the continent. Yet a theory based on natural variations can, and did. Right here on NW in another thread.

I describe the current situation in our profession as meteorological civil war. The operational side generally think the theory is daft and under-researched nonsense. The academic and research side have all their career options in the one basket and can't back down, don't want to lose face, and in some cases probably still believe their own sermons.

Many have totally given up on this theory as being unsustainable with clear attempts to manipulate the data, public opinion and the political debate.

Look, imagine how you would feel in the UK if it were like February 1947 outside right now. That's basically the situation faced by the global warming lobby in large parts of North America. Take for example Chicago, which is Obama's home town. Today, it was -18 C there with a -30 C wind chill. The normal temperature at this time of year is about +3 C.

Or in my own case here, we have had eleven days with sub-freezing temperatures and snowfall most of those days. The normal high here is +7 C. It is becoming a sort of theatre of the absurd to discuss the urgent problems of global warming especially in the current economic situation.

The debate may be over in the other direction.

A bit of perspective Roger, we can both find parts of America which are high and low, yes large parts of the US have had a cold week or 2 bit are you really saying a cold week will change peoples mind ?, or tbh has anything to do with it at all. ?

As you also well know the US suffers some real extremes in Winter dependent on the direction of the airmass it's frequently well above or below average, whereas the UK is much more stable climatewise.

[Solar Cycles]

Completely agree GW, I have been very busy with Christmas this week, but looking on her it's more of the same. It's a shame that some of the coolist brigade havent looked at my ENSO tempeature correlation and the base increase in temperature trend over the last 30 years when the SHORT term climatic fluctuations of ENSO etc are taken into account. That the cooler global temperatures at the start of the year where fully predictable, that the warmer temperatures now at the end of the year were fully predictable.

This 30 years is such a short timescale, why not 40, 50, or a 100 years. Anyway, besides all of that, this year has been the coldest this century (sounds impressive when put like that) What's the odds on 2009 continuing the trend. I would say excellent!

[Methuselah]

This 30 years is such a short timescale, why not 40, 50, or a 100 years. Anyway, besides all of that, this year has been the coldest this century (sounds impressive when put like that) What's the odds on 2009 continuing the trend. I would say excellent!

So one year's La Nina-assisted apparent 'cooling' is enough for you SC? And you accuse us 'warmers' of swallowing 'tripe'! You accuse us of over-extrapolating!

[Essan]

This 30 years is such a short timescale, why not 40, 50, or a 100 years.

For the same reason a metre is the distance travelled by light in absolute vacuum in 1⁄299,792,458 of a second - it's standard internationally agreed scientific convention.

Of course, all scientists are obviously part of the conspiracy .......

[Solar Cycles]

For the same reason a metre is the distance travelled by light in absolute vacuum in 1⁄299,792,458 of a second - it's standard internationally agreed scientific convention.

Of course, all scientists are obviously part of the conspiracy .......

Well Essan a typical response from you, again where did I mention conspiracy?

So one year's La Nina-assisted apparent 'cooling' is enough for you SC? And you accuse us 'warmers' of swallowing 'tripe'! You accuse us of over-extrapolating!

La nina is responsible for cooling, that with low solar activity. But all the warming can be contributed to El nino and a very active sun. Or do we not attribute these facts to warming!

[Essan]

Well Essan a typical response from you, again where did I mention conspiracy?

La nina is responsible for cooling, that with low solar activity. But all the warming can be contributed to El nino and a very active sun. Or do we not attribute these facts to warming!

We all know that the very warm year of 1998 was due to El Nino and that is why, despite AGW, temps have not been so high in more recent years. However, these subsequent years - including 2008 - have all been warmer than those preceding the 98 El Nino. Given La Nina should have resulted in a cool year, are you suggesting 2008 was so warm because of increased solar activity? Do you have any evidence for this increase in solar activity over the past decade?

All the evidence points towards natural variability - including ENSO and solar activity - amplified/tempered by an underlying warming trend. Given evidence that many human activities should/have caused warming in various parts of the world and even perhaps on a global level, I think we might have a likely theory?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...81219180532.htm

The above study looks at a 'positive link' between solar activity and temps (in Siberia) over a period from 1250 to 1850. I explains the 10-30yr 'delay' in climate response and goes further to show that the past 50yrs temp increases are well beyond the scope of such forcing.

It does however make you wonder how much heating we are yet to inherit from our oceans with the 10-30yr delay playing out.......

Edited December 23, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

Well Essan a typical response from you, again where did I mention conspiracy?

La nina is responsible for cooling, that with low solar activity. But all the warming can be contributed to El nino and a very active sun. Or do we not attribute these facts to warming!

By low and high solar activity do you mean as in received w/m2, at top of atmosphere, or do you mean how the Sun's activity effects how cosmic rays reach us, or both, or both in what proportion? Do you accept the measure of climate forcing , w/m2? How much, iyo, additional w/m2 does human produced ghg's add to the climate system and how much do you think the solar effects (which I hope you have explained as per my question) add?

[Methuselah]

La nina is responsible for cooling, that with low solar activity. But all the warming can be contributed to El nino and a very active sun. Or do we not attribute these facts to warming!

Er? No I don't think we do. But we can, of course, attribute some part of climate change (warming or cooling) to those facts?

[PersianPaladin]

2008 the 10th warmest year on record according to the MetOffice:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20081216.html

Looks pretty solid evidence to me, albeit I'm puzzled by this sentence: -

"La Niña events typically coincide with cooler global temperatures, and 2008 is slightly cooler than the norm under current climate conditions."

Shouldn't it be saying that 2008 is slightly cooler than the last few years of La Nina conditions (e.g. 2005/6), rather than a "norm" or longer term mean?

Edited December 23, 2008 by PersianPaladin