Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp

[Cal]

Thanks for the replies Gents, appreciated

[karyo]

hi guys,

just a question from me. What are your thoughts for end of winter early spring? We often get some decent wintry events in March and i wonder whether you expect this to be the case again this year.

We have the developing La Nina which favours cold spells in the start of spring but as the La Nina is developing quite late this year in comparison to the last one, will it still bring those early spring cold spells?

Thanks in advance and well done on your efforts so far!

Karyo

[Roger J Smith]

Fred is heading off on holiday some time soon, and we will probably have a look at our spring thoughts in early to mid February. If we seem to agree after a conversation, we might try this joint forecast approach again. If we come up with different thinking, then we may issue two forecasts. I don't want to get ahead of the actual work that goes into a forecast, so I won't speculate at this point.

The current model runs are showing some unusually low heights near the north pole, like 450 dm, which needs to be studied from various points of view as a possible factor down the road. Very low surface pressures are also indicated, and although this is slightly on the Siberian side of the pole, it could end up in any northern region later on so I want to give that some study and check against other research perspectives.

Without wanting to sound dramatic, you always have to wonder with the solar cycle being so low for so many years, if some unusual circulation patterns might develop that have no recent analogues and require a bit more of a historical search using whatever techniques.

[Snowyowl9]

Yes it`s certainly following the full moon pattern by the book this year very different,something I`ve never followed before, all very interesting forecasts.

As for cold nightime temps they can get more potent as the winter goes on even in March.

March 2006 had some very hard frosts,March 2001 gave some severe frosts as cold as this January here,And theres still february yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Guys

Yes Roger i leave tomorrow at 1440 hrs GMT and will be away for a week. Sad as I am though I will find an internet cafe just to keep abreast.

This very low minima is somewhat intriguing and needs looking at very carefully because it is potentially having an impact not seen in modern times and as Roger says comparisons are limited. Heads up for overall pattern is again no chance of heatwave of note and indeed slightly cooler pattern than last year. But this is an unresearched projection so much to mull over. I do see some sense in a jet that is gradually shifting south overall as time moves on. Currently though I have no change in the overall thoughts projected in the LRF.

BFTP

Edited January 9, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

As for cold nightime temps they can get more potent as the winter goes on even in March.

Soil and water (seas) are a repository of heat. In both cases, temperatures are at their lowest toward the end of winter. These two factors must more than compensate for increased IR in February and March, at least when the synoptics are right.

It is almost absurd how well the RJS/BFTP forecast is performing to date. Good luck for the second half of winter, guys... or perhaps you don't need it.

Edited January 10, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks, AFT, but we need luck ... it's worth mentioning this because I don't want anyone to be disappointed later on ...

If Fred and I were to continue making these forecasts for several more years, every season, the chances are that some of them would be wider of the mark, and I'm not saying this one is a bull's eye either.

I say this not because I think we're just guessing and got lucky, but because I know the uncertainty involved in this approach, and I can't reasonably estimate when the uncertainty will be reduced to some smaller factor.

The method essentially uses data analysis from past situations that appear similar in set-up from our model perspective. The performance of the best forecasts using this method is like this recent one, to date. The performance of the worst forecasts tends to look like a pattern shift, where you can see that your forecast verified in an adjacent region.

This makes the challenge more of a locational one than a pattern recognition problem. In some ways, this reduces the complexity of the challenge but not the perception of variability to the readers or users of forecasts, who are not looking at them from that perspective but from the idea of will they verify when and where stated (which is fair enough).

So I did want to emphasize that in our situations, which are different but both less than ideal from the point of view of making weather forecasts full time, the challenges are great, and we expect to stumble at times. We make forecasts mostly out of the interest we have in it, not with any expectation that they will sweep all else aside -- this is a very crowded field and lots of people have lots of good ideas. I hardly have time to keep up with half of them, but of course, when people make good LRFs it makes you more interested in the methodology. However, I always look at them with the same view as my own work, is there a pattern that verifies somewhere close, and if so, what caused the error in location, because if any method gives a recognizable pattern, then there may be an element of utility in the methods.

I certainly don't regard any of these methods as "guesswork." but it's a slowly developing scientific field where the challenge is great and progress will be slow due to that complexity. It's probably like the earlier days of rocket science, so to speak, a lot of rockets get off the launching pad, some don't, and some go off erratically after a while. Nowadays, it is rare for a rocket to malfunction. I can also remember when the 48-hour panel of the numerical models was pretty much hit or miss. You might now say that about day six or seven. So there can be slow progress in these fields. Who knows which of the many methods will eventually lead the way to the goal of reliable long range forecasts? Some blend of many different insights now available, probably.

As this is already a complex problem, the idea that somebody will one day blend these various approaches into one that works reliably, strikes me as an enormous mental challenge and I even wonder if it lies within our capabilities ... but all we can do is go forward with these limited individual or small-group efforts and see where it all leads.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Max southern declination 22/1, Apogee 23/1, and new moon 25th Jan, a strong combination and with the pattern already unsettled and unstable it could get nasty. Looking at the fact that the jet is on a more southerly track this period looks likely to bring a severe winter storm [wind being most noteworthy event] to southern half of the UK and Ireland. It ain't going to be mild either so next weekend could be a very notable weather event with blizzards for mountainous regions/moors and deluge of rain for others. A period to keep an eye on and of interest it isn'tlikely to push right through to Scandinavia so we could be in for a rough ride.

BFTP

Edited January 19, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[D KARLSON]

i think a number of people have become quite despondent of late with the recent outputs ,but this is still a departure from recent winters ,with snow still in the offing for some areas,

If i was pushed into the timing of a pattern change and this is just a hunch i would plump for the end of the month ,this has on a number of occasions ushered in a cold northerly and snow and its no surprise when you consider its probably the coldest point of our winters.

Patience is the key and there is still plenty of winter left ,what we have not seen this winter is anything remotely mild and this bodes well for February with another signal for stratospheric warming this maybe our next bite of the cherry :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

i think a number of people have become quite despondent of late with the recent outputs ,but this is still a departure from recent winters ,with snow still in the offing for some areas,

If i was pushed into the timing of a pattern change and this is just a hunch i would plump for the end of the month ,this has on a number of occasions ushered in a cold northerly and snow and its no surprise when you consider its probably the coldest point of our winters.

Patience is the key and there is still plenty of winter left ,what we have not seen this winter is anything remotely mild and this bodes well for February with another signal for stratospheric warming this maybe our next bite of the cherry

Hi D

The set up is looking slightly delayed however, the southerly jet is going to bring some very wintry weather this upcoming week so in essence it is cold. Indeed a westerly flow is bringing as good if not better conditions than northerlies of recent pasts as mentioned by someone in the model thread. By Wednesday there will be many happy folk I'm sure but location and a little elevation will be the essence. I maintain that the jet will remain south [and that is important to the cold pattern as this will lead to the dying out of the Atlantic] and maybe a real cold push is more likely end of month into early Feb. The reason i personally have mentioned around the forum a block to NE extending through Iceland and into Greenland is because a southerly jet will assist this set up, what the actual set up will be I can't really say barring the jet's direction. Where we go is that in the UK we need some luck and we haven't done bad so far.

BFTP.

[The PIT]

Hi D

The set up is looking slightly delayed however, the southerly jet is going to bring some very wintry weather this upcoming week so in essence it is cold. Indeed a westerly flow is bringing as good if not better conditions than northerlies of recent pasts as mentioned by someone in the model thread. By Wednesday there will be many happy folk I'm sure but location and a little elevation will be the essence. I maintain that the jet will remain south [and that is important to the cold pattern as this will lead to the dying out of the Atlantic] and maybe a real cold push is more likely end of month into early Feb. The reason i personally have mentioned around the forum a block to NE extending through Iceland and into Greenland is because a southerly jet will assist this set up, what the actual set up will be I can't really say barring the jet's direction. Where we go is that in the UK we need some luck and we haven't done bad so far.

BFTP.

Which week are you referring too??? This week or next week???

[cheeky_monkey]

even you boys must admit january hasnt gone to plan?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

even you boys must admit january hasnt gone to plan?

Latter half only is not happening fast enough, but its coming. Full review at end of forecast....but thanks :lol:

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Latter half only is not happening fast enough, but its coming. Full review at end of forecast....but thanks

BFTP

I will imput an update this evening re this.......the first real change? Well yes and no but more detail re Feb

BFTP

Edited January 23, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[jemtom]

Latter half only is not happening fast enough, but its coming. Full review at end of forecast....but thanks

BFTP

To be fair Blast that can always be said of the weather. It's no different to me claiming "it's going to turn very mild and Springlike in early Feb", then when it fails to happen simply suggesting "OK it's not happening fast enough, but it's coming".

Bottom line is both you and Roger have been wrong in your assertion that after a brief milder spell mid month, a cold/very cold pattern would quickly become re-established - perhaps as early as the 17th I recall you suggesting pre your holiday.

That my friend has not transpired, therefore you simply have to accept and concede you were wrong, because extending the likelihood of it happened into February just does not cut the mustard.

Far better, fairer and importantly less confusing if you simply draw a line under January now and give us your untainted predictions for February.

Edited January 23, 2009 by jemtom

[jonboy]

To be fair Blast that can always be said of the weather. It's no different to me claiming "it's going to turn very mild and Springlike in early Feb", then when it fails to happen simply suggesting "OK it's not happening fast enough, but it's coming".

Bottom line is both you and Roger have been wrong in your assertion that after a brief milder spell mid month, a cold/very cold pattern would quickly become re-established - perhaps as early as the 17th I recall you suggesting pre your holiday.

That my friend has not transpired, therefore you simply have to accept and concede you were wrong, because extending the likelihood of it happened into February just does not cut the mustard.

Far better, fairer and importantly less confusing if you simply draw a line under January now and give us your untainted predictions for February.

Jemtom

I have to say you are being rather unfair. RJS and Blasts forecast is second to none so far and considering when the forecast was made it is remarkable in its accuracy. For January they predicted a mild spell mid month turning back to cold and then very cold. We have had our mild spell and are now turning cold with very cold being predicted by many. Simply because a specific date is not met does not make it an incorrect call. Roger's and Blasts forecast needs to be judged on the winter as a whole and not cherry picked. I'm sure that when we do look back there maybe some head scratching going on to understand how well the forecast has stood up.

[cheeky_monkey]

Jemtom

I have to say you are being rather unfair. RJS and Blasts forecast is second to none so far and considering when the forecast was made it is remarkable in its accuracy. For January they predicted a mild spell mid month turning back to cold and then very cold. We have had our mild spell and are now turning cold with very cold being predicted by many. Simply because a specific date is not met does not make it an incorrect call. Roger's and Blasts forecast needs to be judged on the winter as a whole and not cherry picked. I'm sure that when we do look back there maybe some head scratching going on to understand how well the forecast has stood up.

actually the lrf by candice?..is much better than the one by RJS and Blast IMO..but has been ignored by members..some should go and read it and then make your own judgements.

[Weather-history]

even you boys must admit january hasnt gone to plan?

Well its closer than Ian Brown's fiasco.

Now that is a January forecast that hasn't gone to plan.

Edited January 23, 2009 by Mr_Data

[jemtom]

Jemtom

I have to say you are being rather unfair. RJS and Blasts forecast is second to none so far and considering when the forecast was made it is remarkable in its accuracy. For January they predicted a mild spell mid month turning back to cold and then very cold. We have had our mild spell and are now turning cold with very cold being predicted by many. Simply because a specific date is not met does not make it an incorrect call. Roger's and Blasts forecast needs to be judged on the winter as a whole and not cherry picked. I'm sure that when we do look back there maybe some head scratching going on to understand how well the forecast has stood up.

jonboy - wholeheartedly disagree. That has not happened and as I allued to there is no point in issuing any kind of forecast without a set timeframe to accompany it.

Their early Winter forecasts were good as I've previously conceded, but Dec was forecast to be a colder than average month in many quarters, including the MO. The 1st third of Jan was cold/very cold, then along came the milder spell, but what we have not seen since is the forecasted return to cold/very cold weather. That is a fact, it's not open to question or arguement. Now whether we get a return to colder conditions in Feb remains to be seen, clearly there are some encouraging signs that we will, but in all fairness with respect to Blast and Roger those who live by the sword die by the sword. In other words if you want fetting and praising when your forecasts go right, you have also to accept the inevitable critisism when they go wrong, that as you suggest is not "being rather unfair", it's in fact completely the opposite.

[PB22]

Well its closer than Ian Brown's fiasco.

Now that is a January forecast that hasn't gone to plan.

No real surprise really with his blinkered views. That is one forecast that can be written off already! The rest can be reviewed at the end as BFTP said.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I have just read his forecast and wow what a terrible forecast (Ian Brown's that is). I have heard his name mentioned on here before and cannot believe what a mild ramper he is! Wow!

[Magadan]

@ Jemtom: My own view is that as long as the basic sequence of long range predicted weather events takes place, then the method is basically sound, even if they fail to materialise on schedule. So I'm not ready to administer a verbal kicking to these chaps just yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To be fair Blast that can always be said of the weather. It's no different to me claiming "it's going to turn very mild and Springlike in early Feb", then when it fails to happen simply suggesting "OK it's not happening fast enough, but it's coming".

Bottom line is both you and Roger have been wrong in your assertion that after a brief milder spell mid month, a cold/very cold pattern would quickly become re-established - perhaps as early as the 17th I recall you suggesting pre your holiday.

That my friend has not transpired, therefore you simply have to accept and concede you were wrong, because extending the likelihood of it happened into February just does not cut the mustard.

Far better, fairer and importantly less confusing if you simply draw a line under January now and give us your untainted predictions for February.

Jemtom

The 17th date is nowt to do with the LRF and was a rash post which I quantified on many occasions almost immediately after. you read the LRF for jan the only dates mentioned are 10-12 where LP will push north to bring milder temps...and it did on cue. I have just made posts along the way to try and increase detail where I can and a setup I have alluded to for sometimr is blocking to our NE to ridge acros to Iceland and Greenland. Re turning springlike that is something you have been predicting since November????. Yes lattr half of Jan has not returned to very cold pattern as I imagined but the southerly jet is in place but not the northern blocking so it has failed to materialise on time. This is an LRF with no updates or changes, however, events have compelled me to provide an update re Feb as the pattern is 'developing' and I have miscalculated the strength of the peak energy period of this NM, Apogee and S Declination and the detail IMO needs expanding which i will try and do.

Now feed me to the wolves!!

BFTP

Edited January 23, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Rollo]

Hi fred, regrettably Jemtom does not appear able to see the big picture of Roger's and your forecast-no one in their right mind would expect your forecast to be spot on and you did go into quite some detail. Overall my view is that thus far your accuracy has been good and the icing on the cake(as is appearing increasing likely) will be a cold or very cold February. It takes some nerve to but a detailed prediction out at the beginning of winter and many on this site admire you for it,regards Mike.

[jemtom]

Jemtom

The 17th date is nowt to do with the LRF and was a rash post which I quantified on many occasions almost immediately after. you read the LRF for jan the only dates mentioned are 10-12 where LP will push north to bring milder temps...and it did on cue. I have just made posts along the way to try and increase detail where I can and a setup I have alluded to for sometimr is blocking to our NE to ridge acros to Iceland and Greenland. Re turning springlike that is something you have been predicting since November????. Yes lattr half of Jan has not returned to very cold pattern as I imagined but the southerly jet is in place but not the northern blocking so it has failed to materialise on time. This is an LRF with no updates or changes, however, events have compelled me to provide an update re Feb as the pattern is 'developing' and I have miscalculated the strength of the peak energy period of this NM, Apogee and S Declination and the detail IMO needs expanding which i will try and do.

Now feed me to the wolves!!

BFTP

Feed me to the Rollo you mean mate, he seems more fired up than any wolf.... Will look forward to seeing your Feb update and your apology....soz I meant apogee

For what it's worth I still l think we'll be looking a fair way into February before any proper northern blocking gets established, perhaps well into the 2nd week in fact, but then again I'm not in my right mind according to some....

Good luck with it.

Edited January 23, 2009 by jemtom