Annual CET - 2009

[trickydicky]

9.9

Average jan, very cold feb and march, average to warm remainder of spring, above average summer (including a very hot july), average autumn and a cold december.

That would be just about perfect I reckon.

[Snowly does it]

That is certainly very impressive in these 'modern' times. How low do you think we can get if the Feb CET does the impossible and comes in sub 3ºC? (I don't really think this is impossible - I actually believe the long term outlook gives us the best chance in a very long time).

well, If Jan is say 3.3, we need Feb to come in at about 2.9 to get us under the 1961-1990 annual mean of 9.48 in running.

Lets say we get a La Nina Spring and get March and April around average - this would lose us 0.4 on last year (both were 0.2 below average) - but May was sweltering, an average May would get us back 2.1 and would get us to 9.33 or thereabouts in running, after that we would be up against the cold run that started in June.

Theoretical floor therefore at this stage is perhaps 1996s 9.2 - to bring 9 into view you would really need February to come in at or around 0. Safe to say, were this to happen it would cause some 'discussion'

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.17

April: 9.1C

May: 11.8C

June: 12.1C

-0.17

July: 17C

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

+0.5

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.75C, changable winter and spring followed by a warm summer and mild Autumn.

[Stu_London]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.17

April: 9.1C

May: 11.8C

June: 12.1C

-0.17

July: 17C

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

+0.5

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.75C, changable winter and spring followed by a warm summer and mild Autumn.

Is some thermo nuclear event expected in CET land :lol: :lol:

[Stu_London]

The march back to 1740 continues

Annual Rolling CET 07/02/08-06/02/09 - 9.58C*

who will be bravest and name and call a date for when we first go sub 9 in running (go on Stratos, you know you want to really)

* assumes Jan09 is 3.3C

[SNOWPLOUGH]

The march back to 1740 continues

Annual Rolling CET 07/02/08-06/02/09 - 9.58C*

who will be bravest and name and call a date for when we first go sub 9 in running (go on Stratos, you know you want to really)

* assumes Jan09 is 3.3C

22ND OF FEBRUARY 2009!!!!!!!

SP

[Stu_London]

22ND OF FEBRUARY 2009!!!!!!!

SP

LOL - that woukd take some doing - however if the CET for 01Feb09-22Feb09 is -5.5C, you will be correct!

[SNOWPLOUGH]

LOL - that woukd take some doing - however if the CET for 01Feb09-22Feb09 is -5.5C, you will be correct!

:lol:

what woud it take to bring it down at the end of feb?

SP

[Stu_London]

:lol:

what woud it take to bring it down at the end of feb?

SP

If feb came in at -2.7 then we would be sub 9.

Realistically it isn't going to happen at all, but if it does then May 2009 would be the first most likely opportunity. Although if February came in between 0 and 1 and the first half of March was very cold, we would get close around mid March 2009

[Snowly does it]

The march back to 1740 continues

Annual Rolling CET 07/02/08-06/02/09 - 9.58C*

who will be bravest and name and call a date for when we first go sub 9 in running (go on Stratos, you know you want to really)

* assumes Jan09 is 3.3C

Should be under the 61-90 average by the middle of the week, should be under the 61-90 at month end.

We might just skim under 1996s annual total during spring at some point and if February delivers the jaw dropper it could if ECM is right then I call sub 9 for May 28th 2009

[Stu_London]

Should be under the 61-90 average by the middle of the week, should be under the 61-90 at month end.

We might just skim under 1996s annual total during spring at some point and if February delivers the jaw dropper it could if ECM is right then I call sub 9 for May 28th 2009

Some interest Annual CET facts from yesteryear

1736 - 10.30C

1737 - 9.92C

1738 - 9.81C

1739 - 9.20C

1740 - 6.84C

1781 - 10.20C

1782 - 8.01C

1921 - 10.47C

1922 - 8.67C

[Duncan McAlister]

22ND OF FEBRUARY 2009!!!!!!!

SP

31st December 2009?

[summer blizzard]

Does anybody have the rolling CET for us??

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.17

April: 9.1C

May: 9.8C

June: 12.1C

-0.83

July: 17C

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

+0.5

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.09C, changable winter and spring followed by a warm summer and mild Autumn.

[morfius]

Has anyone got the latest value or perhaps a link to the data?

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.17

April: 9.1C

May: 9.8C

June: 16.1C

+0.5

July: 17C

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

+0.5

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.25C, changable winter and spring followed by a warm summer and mild Autumn.

[Bobd29]

Hi SB ....that jump from May to June CET on your list would be the highest ever difference in 300+ years of records, some achievement if it comes off. Personally I hope May is a little warmer, lol.

[summer blizzard]

Could we have a rolling figure please, i'd guess we are back above 10C given the milder March and April.

[reef]

Could we have a rolling figure please, i'd guess we are back above 10C given the milder March and April.

To the 11th April we are running at 9.77C.

At the end of March we were running at 9.62C.

We wont breach 10.00C for some while yet. We've got around 6 cumulative degrees above the 1971-2000 average to play with, so April, May, June, July, August and September could all afford to be 1.0C above average and we'd be on just 10.02C.

Edited April 13, 2009 by reef

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.17

April: 9.1C

May: 11.3C

June: 16.1C

+1.0

July: 17.5C

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

+0.67

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.34C.

Interestingly, my monthly updates have called for a rise of 0.34C from my original prediction.

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.2

April: 9.1C

May: 11.3C

June: 15.1C

+0.7

July: 17.5C

August: 16.2C

September: 13.2C

+0.2

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.15C, 0.4C above average.

[Stu_London]

Rolling Annual CET to 31st May 2009 - 9.68C

[kold weather]

Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.

[Stu_London]

Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.

Even allowing for this I think there is still a sporting chance (30% to 40%) than 2009 will be sub 10C

[sundog]

Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.

Something similar to the very mild and wet end to the yr in 2006 you reckon? Nov and Dec that year zonality just seemed to go on and on and indeed continued for much of the rest of the winter ,i imagine the end of this year we could see a repeat of that,although i hope againest hope it doesnt happen.

Edited June 16, 2009 by sundog