Convective/storm Discussion

[MAF]

Dry as a Bone here in the Sahara SE Essex :lol:

yes Paul, there will be tumbleweed rolling along london bridge if it stays much drier in London.

quite grey outside now and humidity at 86%

[BrickFielder]

Well it looks like we are still on although without some breaks in the cloud I think it might just be a case of heavy showers in a rather overcast day.

Low level winds suggest a shallow surface trough over the UK with convergence zones setting up.

There is also a pool of moisture perhaps most clearly identifyable on this chart.

Forecast SkewT's show a pretty moist profile all the way up apart from the very top layer, so things could be quite messy, untill into the evening. Low cloud bases and veering low level winds enhance the posibilities of convergence zone tornados while weak temperatures mean updrafts may be too weak. Cloud tops may not be that high either so heavy showers rather than storms are likely.

Main risk would be localised flooding from slow moving storms and hail with a slight risk of a convergence type weak tornado or funnel.

[Harry]

Radar showing little more intensification at the moment - all rather boring

Meanwhile, great pic of the Suffolk tornado on the MetO website

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...ht20090608.html

[loopydreamer]

awww c#*p

was hoping for a storm today :lol:

could there be more potential for a storm a bit later, as the temps increase?

[dogs32]

Taken about 8.25am this morning, looking out to sea..

and the same one but just darken..

this was only the end of it, as it took me a few mins to get my camera.. Rotation was seen.

What do you think guys??

ROTATION!!...I love the word...nice Kelly....

The area down South looks more organised than earlier...but not as heavy as this morning.....

Sun here on and off ...plenty of time for some action we hope..

And yes we have Tumble weed blowing across the garden

we do have towers here but not well defined ones at present...but goes to show that there is some energy around

Edited June 10, 2009 by dogs32

[loopydreamer]

actually i reckon the west midlands are in for a chance of a storm this afternoon

[sunny scunny]

It's getting very dark here, but only a little light rain so far :lol:

[dogs32]

actually i reckon the west midlands are in for a chance of a storm this afternoon

Yea I reckon if the rainy showers down South can get some decent sun there might be a chance..

There is some nice convection going on here at present.....If they get fairly decent I will take pic.....

But I think there is a possability

[Harry]

The rain here is a non-event - showing up as moderate on the radar, but I wouldn't classify it as that strong!

Are the downpours predicted meant to come from this particular band, or can we expect showers to develop in between this fragmenting area and the band over N France?

[ItIsGee]

Wazzing it down here in Manchester!

[loopydreamer]

The rain here is a non-event - showing up as moderate on the radar, but I wouldn't classify it as that strong!

Are the downpours predicted meant to come from this particular band, or can we expect showers to develop in between this fragmenting area and the band over N France?

i was wondering about that same thing myself :lol:

the sun is really trying to get out from behind them clouds atm!

[morfius]

Well i'm not expecting anything for the south east. Most likely the BBCs prediction of heavy and thundery downpours will once again translate to a weak decaying front of drizzle as per usual.

I've learnt the lesson to stop wasting time looking, and enjoy what happens when it happens.

[Wynn D Woo]

Sun is really starting to break through now and with a few decent towers already.....

[morfius]

Oh yes and this reinforces my expectations:

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showfor...ormforecast.xml

[jo200199]

Hi all, pretty new to this. Just wondering if you could explain what towers are please? :lol:

[maidstone weather]

Flash Warning for Gloucs, Somerset & Devon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

Edited June 10, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Lynxus]

Some lovely convection going up round here.

Sun is breaking through is places and its warm.

UKasf have a storm warning , So fingers crossed for something later :lol:

[jo200199]

'Towers' is just a short term for referring to Towering Cumulus clouds, which develop through convection

Thanks, there's a few of them about :lol:

[SteveB]

Flash Warning for Gloucs, Somerset & Devon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

Well thats blown it, was hoping for some storms today. I will never trust the Met-Office warnings.

[Jane Louise]

Looking very thundery here!I have my webcam setup and managed to snap this picture.

[Lynxus]

Well thats blown it, was hoping for some storms today. I will never trust the Met-Office warnings.

LOL yeah.

Now the metoffice have said that, All the sferics will be in the green areas lol

Heres to hoping :lol:

[MAF]

Flash Warning for Gloucs, Somerset & Devon http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

Argghhhh my PC is useless, i cant even see the Met Office site now

keep the warnings coming MW :lol:

[maidstone weather]

Well thats blown it, was hoping for some storms today. I will never trust the Met-Office warnings.

especially after the storms in the SE yesterday (or the lack of them) :lol:

Notice they haven't used the "t" word yet? Could be promising for you )

"Heavy downpours are expected to develop across parts of South Wales and Southwest England this afternoon, giving up to 20 mm of rain over short periods of time."

Edited June 10, 2009 by maidstone weather

[SteveB]

LOL yeah.

Now the metoffice have said that, All the sferics will be in the green areas lol

Heres to hoping <_< <_<

Only joking, at least we have a warning.

[Harry]

Well thats blown it, was hoping for some storms today. I will never trust the Met-Office warnings.

Let's not get too hasty - it does specify this afternoon for you guys, live until 8pm this evening!

The sun is already trying to break through here and it is already feeling warmer - more humid too though that's probably because of the rain we're having. There is probably the slimmest of chances should the sun get through we may see stuff developing, but experiencing any of it, 2% probably lol

Edited June 10, 2009 by Harry