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Tony Gilbert
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
well i see any storms today <_< <_< :)

I wouldnt of thought so. :)

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
I share that with you Harry, but today was never really going to be our day in this part of the World. Our day will come!

I know - just better not be between the 19th and 26th June otherwise Beechy Head beckons <_<

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted
<_<

Harry, It probably wont happen here anyway lol. So you probably wont miss out.

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Koppite Rookie

Koppite

Posted
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 158m A.S.L.
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 158m A.S.L.
Posted
Chucking it down in Shrewsbury right now, but not thundery yet...

Think we might be too far west today though.

You might be ok, the warnings are starting to come out for the areas just west of you. <_<

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Currently having a localised heavy downpour of large thundery raindrops but blue skies 2 miles to my west and east. The sky overhead is also looking very turbulent so perhaps this is a good sign.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)
This would time in almost immaculately with VP's prediction! Though as I say, pretty much anywhere could potentially get something today so we won't really know until we physically hear or see it!

Here's the 00z:

post-5986-1244629842_thumb.jpg

Here's the 06z:

post-5986-1244629850_thumb.jpg

More cape <_< Also the Td line is more wonky, rather than just ballooning left, which gives us fractionally more lift (evaporative cooling affecting lapse rates) becuase of Tdd Alas, less shear, though.

If I had to put odds on the S/E corner, I'd have to say it's 50/50; temps need to get to 16C for midday, not just some point after it, unfortunately. It could well be close, yet no cigar, once again.

Feels, very marginal, to me; but the hopecaster in me is, well, hoping!

EDIT: K index suggest small convective possibilities, and TT index suggests thunderstorms likely (top end of range before we get to the possibilities of severe storms, and that is where my hope lies. I do not think today is about LI, and K, rather other factors, so I am conveniently ignoring them. At my peril, of course, because, like snow-forecasting, if one parameter is out, then, normally, it doesn't happen.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
You might be ok, the warnings are starting to come out for the areas just west of you.

You're in for a treat then haha! <_<

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maidstone weather Newbie

maidstone weather

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted
Here's the 00z:

post-5986-1244629842_thumb.jpg

Here's the 06z:

post-5986-1244629850_thumb.jpg

More cape <_< Also the Td line is more wonky, rather than just ballooning left, which gives us fractionally more lift (evaporative cooling affecting lapse rates) becuase of Tdd Alas, less shear, though.

If I had to put odds on the S/E corner, I'd have to say it's 50/50; temps need to get to 16C for midday, not just some point after it, unfortunately. It could well be close, yet no cigar, once again.

Feels, very marginal, to me; but the hopecaster in me is, well, hoping!

15.6C and muggy here -can't be far off surely? <_<

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Koppite Rookie

Koppite

Posted
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 158m A.S.L.
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 158m A.S.L.
Posted
You're in for a treat then haha! <_<

Heavy drizzle. <_<

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
Actually you may be in luck today Harry, as Torro have extended their risk area to include a good portion of the SE.

<_<

Will wait and see first - getting brighter...ish!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
wow explosion of intense showers in Dorset

Hey dogs <_<

Fingers crossed aye mate. All eyes south.

Would be nice to have a massive storm. The cells do appear to be getting bigger and they are also fairly slow moving.

Lets hope for some backbuilding while they head north. Would be ace.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)
15.6C and muggy here -can't be far off surely? :huh:

Well, according to these chaps at 11z we were only at 14C. A big ask to jump two degrees in an hour, I think. Maybe we can get a Sussex/Hampshire import, this afternoon. At least we know that atmosphere shouldn't kill 'em off ...... :yahoo:

Edited by VillagePlank
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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted
Hey dogs :yahoo:

Fingers crossed aye mate. All eyes south.

Would be nice to have a massive storm. The cells do appear to be getting bigger and they are also fairly slow moving.

Lets hope for some backbuilding while they head north. Would be ace.

since I put that pic up theres a extrememly heavy one to the West of you........also the ones down dorset have exploded further with lots of piink and white..Torrential rain....would of thought these will turn electric shortly..

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maidstone weather Newbie

maidstone weather

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted (edited)
Well, according to these chaps at 11z we were only at 14C. A big ask to jump two degrees in an hour, I think. Maybe we can get a Sussex/Hampshire import, this afternoon. At least we know that atmosphere shouldn't kill 'em off ...... :yahoo:

at 11z i was 14.4C - so it's possible :huh:

edit: big convective splodges here... only a matter of time :)

Edited by maidstone weather
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)
since I put that pic up theres a extrememly heavy one to the West of you........also the ones down dorset have exploded further with lots of piink and white..Torrential rain....would of thought these will turn electric shortly..

Yeah, theres even more sferics now.

From the sat images, it looks like everyting building FAST!

This is good hehehe

Its very dark to my SW.

Edited by Lynxus
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted
at 11z i was 14.4C - so it's possible :yahoo:

Well GFS could be a bit slow (we can't run the skew-t's for every five minutes from 12z to 18z, unfortunately) and there's a big period, obviously, between these, but the best publicly available forecast time is 12z, and we need surface heating for initiation (and high DP's might be nice too - so SB-RH is an important factor, today, too)

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted
whats that big lump of rain in the english channel :huh: ? is it doing anything electrical? :)

Rain, rain and more rain :yahoo:

Maybe we can get a Sussex/Hampshire import, this afternoon. At least we know that atmosphere shouldn't kill 'em off ...... :)

:) Yeah we're great at growing for others this year. I wish the EC would export some of that Continental storm activity to us here along the SE coast - I bet there's a storm mountain being stacked up in Brussels.....

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Wow - cell to the South of London has exploded in size and intensity in just 30 mins!! So too the one in Kent!

Edited by Harry
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
Have a feeling I may be too far North of where the interesting cells will develop, will have to wait and see.

Humm, Brum has a tendency to get some good storms from days like this.

as long as theres heat and this band works far enuf north you could be in for something.

If these cells get very big and turn into MCS style then who knows :yahoo:

I wouldnt write it off yet though.

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