Convective/storm Discussion

[Hot mamma]

Well, here in newport, south wales it is dry, light grey skies out my front window and dark clouds out my back, it will all kick off soon as I have just hung my washing out!

[MP-R]

Well, here in newport, south wales it is dry, light grey skies out my front window and dark clouds out my back, it will all kick off soon as I have just hung my washing out!

Better hang your washing out then <_< On a more serious note, there is clearly defined cb cloud to my west over towards Wales. I will try and get a photo as and when my computer accepts my camera.

[Neilsouth]

Flash Warning for Gloucs, Somerset & Devon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

Heavy downpours.... a flash warning for heavy downpours...

Give me a break <_<

[jo200199]

Heavy downpours.... a flash warning for heavy downpours...

Give me a break <_<

Ohhhh....that includes me now <_<

[maidstone weather]

sferic SE of Aberystwyth from a cell

Feels much more humid now the rain has cleared, up to 15.1C

Edited June 10, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Lynxus]

Ohhhh....that includes me now <_<

Humm if they have included that area now it looks like glos may be dry <_<

Looks like they expect them to head north rather than NE.

Who knows.

I hate days like this lol

[VillagePlank]

Notice they haven't used the "t" word yet? Could be promising for you <_< )

I think that that's because the storms of the day will rely on surface heating. I reckon about 16C for the London area for initiation with, perhaps, a few hours later, something interesting.

EDIT (and 16C to be at least maintained - otherwise those air parcels will end up being orphans very high up) The midday Herstmonceaux sounding is particularly important for the SE, today.

Edited June 10, 2009 by VillagePlank

[dogs32]

sferics in Wales....

large cumulus here shooting up everywhere..looking more and more thundery

nice row of heavy showers towards Hampshire

Edited June 10, 2009 by dogs32

[Lynxus]

Oyeah,

Oxford way appears to have something.

lets hope they hold out for a few hours and build!

[Harry]

Watched the BBC forecast update and well, judging by the graphics, I can't miss Big dark green and blue blobs all over the Midlands.

Does dark green and blue blobs, represent supercells or drizzle, I can never remember <_<

Seriously though, I would take forecasts with a pinch of salt, regardless of whether they have come from the BBC or MetO. UKASF has a thunderstorm warning for a large chunk of C England with a watch in most other places. Our trusty estofex has nothing thundery coming within hundreds of miles of here. BBC will chop and change their graphics normally until after the event. I noticed the MetO upgraded the weather graphic for the NW to thunderstorm, only for the cell to have pretty much died before making landfall.

Signs are pretty much anywhere, bar the SE (though I commend VP's optimism <_< ) could see something today. One of the places UKASF pretty much missed for T'storm warning is where MetO have issued a flash warning.

[A.J]

Morning all....Plenty of convection occuring here, already a generous portion of Cu Congestus....still some low-level crud around, but its being blown away to the NW.....very good to see the sun out though, it bodes well for later today, thus I've changed my work plans...Instead of delivering in the home counties, I'm for Worcester/Tewksbury later on this afternoon, a good area for storms me thinks! <_<

[maidstone weather]

One of the places UKASF pretty much missed for T'storm warning is where MetO have issued a flash warning.

Only Devon that's been missed out and in the MetO warning from what i can see?

Sferics on ATD now over Oxford - it's all kicking off <_<

[dogs32]

Strikestar have sferics from Oxford to wales...these detectors are fairly accurate

the white blobs Harry are Supercells <_<

Edited June 10, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Wow - explosion in activity towards Hampshire, and possibly heading NE towards London...he hopes!

EDIT - Naw - just checked and most of it seems to be moving NNE so may miss - boooooo!

This would time in almost immaculately with VP's prediction! Though as I say, pretty much anywhere could potentially get something today so we won't really know until we physically hear or see it!

Edited June 10, 2009 by Harry

[Lynxus]

Towers everywhere at the moment.

the next few hours will be very interesting.

Sferics are picking up . Will have to keep an eye on the Sat images for some good cells.

theres a line of convection south of the M4 corridor heading North.

Lets hoep it keeps growing.

by the time it reaches here there should be some big stuff <_<

[Harry]

Towers everywhere at the moment.

the next few hours will be very interesting.

Sferics are picking up . Will have to keep an eye on the Sat images for some good cells.

So frustrating - if I don't get storms, I can cope with seeing some cracking convection and towers - makes for nice piccies! This murk and yuckiness is taken a long time to budge!

[Jane Louise]

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:15GMT on Wednesday 10th June 2009

Valid from/until: 10:15-19:00 GMT on Wednesday 10th June 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

A large portion of England and Wales (see map)

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, hail, CG lightning, torrential rain.

SYNOPSIS

Moist airmass in place across much of the area. With the approach of an upper trough, mid-level ascent will lead to cooling - this combine with cloud clearing allowing direct/partial insolation is and will lead to shower and thunderstorm development. 500 hPa flow of 20-40 knots may allow some organisation into small clusters although lack of decent shear through much of the convective layer will limit severe potential. Even so, gusty winds to 45mph, small hail (perhaps intense), and torrential rain are all likely, as well as CG lightning. In addition, ingestion of low-level vorticity from convergence zones (e.g. one is progged across central Wales), and also from gust fronts associated with neighbouring cells may lead to funnel clouds/brief weak tornadoes, especially given seasonably steep low-level lapse rates.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/torro/forecast/index.php

[MP-R]

The sky out west:

There doesn't seem to much on the radar in that direction apart from a heavy downpour to the west of Penarth and Barry in South Wales. Some isolated ones popping up inland as well over Wiltshire and Somerset.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Harry]

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:15GMT on Wednesday 10th June 2009

Valid from/until: 10:15-19:00 GMT on Wednesday 10th June 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

A large portion of England and Wales (see map)

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, hail, CG lightning, torrential rain.

SYNOPSIS

Moist airmass in place across much of the area. With the approach of an upper trough, mid-level ascent will lead to cooling - this combine with cloud clearing allowing direct/partial insolation is and will lead to shower and thunderstorm development. 500 hPa flow of 20-40 knots may allow some organisation into small clusters although lack of decent shear through much of the convective layer will limit severe potential. Even so, gusty winds to 45mph, small hail (perhaps intense), and torrential rain are all likely, as well as CG lightning. In addition, ingestion of low-level vorticity from convergence zones (e.g. one is progged across central Wales), and also from gust fronts associated with neighbouring cells may lead to funnel clouds/brief weak tornadoes, especially given seasonably steep low-level lapse rates.

Forecaster: RPK.

<_<

[SalopWatcher]

Chucking it down in Shrewsbury right now, but not thundery yet...

Think we might be too far west today though.

[Lynxus]

Met-office have once again updated the weather warnings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

The torro forecast looks promising <_<

[maidstone weather]

<_<

Don't worry Harry, it's standard procedure that we always miss out <_<

[Koppite]

The area for heavy rain weather warnings keeps getting extended, most of Wales and the South West included now.

[Coast]

<_<

I share that <_< with you Harry, but today was never really going to be our day in this part of the World. Our day will come!

[Tn9]

Got a lot of high level cloud here,i dont know its left over from this mornings rain or its the stuff in front of the next band over France