Met Office Winter Forecast

[Weather-history]

The preciptation part of the forecast

30% drier

35% near average

35% wetter

Do you get the impression they haven't got a clue?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The preciptation part of the forecast

30% drier

35% near average

35% wetter

Do you get the impression they haven't got a clue?

That is the impression

BFTP

[The PIT]

The preciptation part of the forecast

30% drier

35% near average

35% wetter

Do you get the impression they haven't got a clue?

Might as well go for 33% for all of them.

[Methuselah]

But, at least they're being honest about it...Because, after reading the plethora of 'alternative' forecasts, I'm left with one question: who knows? And, the impression I'm getting is that the best answer is no one!

[Weather-history]

But, at least they're being honest about it...

Seems a convoluted way of saying "we don't know"

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The thing is though, put yourself in their shoes.

They've looked at the data, and they feel that there is a approximate 1/3 chance of all three happening.

Is what they've put not the correct way of publishing this data, and its actually our perception and interpretation that is what makes it vague?

Edited December 3, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[Weather-history]

The thing is though, put yourself in their shoes.

They've looked at the data, and they feel that there is a approximate 1/3 chance of all three happening.

Is what they've put not the correct way of publishing this data, and its actually our perception and interpretation that is what makes it vague?

I think that is a fair point but it is frustrating that all the effort, all the data processed and analysed that it has come up with something that I could have told them with just simple stats in about 5 seconds.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Met Office have stuck their necks out a bit more with the following map, which gives strong hints regarding what type of winter they expect:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/world/seasonal/index.html

The pattern of mild over Britain but cold over eastern Europe/western Asia suggests a continuation of the current pattern, with a strong Siberian High which may retrogress towards Scandinavia and/or Svalbard at times bringing the very low temperatures across from the east, into eastern parts of Europe. There is a strong suggestion that, like in 2002/03, this cold air may struggle to make it as far west as Britain. 2002/03 was also a strong analogue in Glacier Point's forecast, and it's worth noting that the closest analogue (1965/66) was quite similar but crucially had that cold "easterly" air make it as far west as Britain at times, resulting in quite a snowy winter.

Should they have included this kind of data in their forecast instead of leaving it up to weather enthusiasts to interpret their temperature maps? In an ideal world I would say "yes", but unfortunately again there's the problem of them being at risk of being misquoted by the press if they do.

Edited December 3, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[shuggee]

There's a bit at the bottom which says:

Give us feedback We are constantly looking to build upon and improve our seasonal forecasts and would welcome your feedback.

Worth an email?

[bluearmy]

last year, the meto changed their winter forecast when it was obvious that their call would be wrong for +NAO and warmer than average. given the current trend for the AO to remain negative and the strong teleconnection signals for the NAO to remain negative through January, can we expect an update top the current forecast soon ??

[Nick B]

last year, the meto changed their winter forecast when it was obvious that their call would be wrong for +NAO and warmer than average. given the current trend for the AO to remain negative and the strong teleconnection signals for the NAO to remain negative through January, can we expect an update top the current forecast soon ??

tbh, why would they really bother? Like last year, it was never a forecast in the first place - just a summary of statistical probabilities based on the last few years. In that sense, we look like falling into their 10% category of colder than usual. They should stick to 5-7 day forecasting where their strengths usually lie.<BR>If the forecast was compiled in any more meaningful way than this, then there is something suspect about their long range forecasting to get the last two years so wrong when Netweather so far have done so much better! Edited December 23, 2009 by Nick B

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

But, at least they're being honest about it...Because, after reading the plethora of 'alternative' forecasts, I'm left with one question: who knows? And, the impression I'm getting is that the best answer is no one!

Some seem to be doing rather well with pennies worth of equipment....and seriously better than the 'super' tens of millions pounds of computer at their disposal?????????

BFTP

Edited December 24, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

Such as who? Corbyn, Foggit, Joe 'the snow'???

pmsl although ive been on a downer lately theres serious problem with the long range forecast from the met office.

scrap it thats what i say i hope this cold continues red faces me think even though i thought they could be right so myself atm i a little red faced aswell lol.:)

[Solar Cycles]

Another busted forecast from the boys at Met! No surprises really, as they continue to add AGW into the mix every season! Still maybe in 10-15 years when temperatures have fallen back to what they use to be ( not the manipulated temps that is ), some brave MetO employee, might just come out and admit that, "we cooked the books"!

Edited December 24, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[Nick L]

I hope I work for the Met Office one day, I really do. That way I can find out what they actually do to produce these forecasts, and why they don't release it in more detail.

Also, anybody know when the update is issued? They have just a week left if they are going to get it into December as promised...

Edited December 24, 2009 by nick2702

[Methuselah]

Another busted forecast from the boys at Met! No surprises really, as they continue to add AGW into the mix every season! Still maybe in 10-15 years when temperatures have fallen back to what they use to be ( not the manipulated temps that is ), some brave MetO employee, might just come out and admit that, "we cooked the books"!

Naughty, naughty...Anybody got any skins??? :lol: :lol:

[Solar Cycles]

Naughty, naughty...Anybody got any skins???

I'll go and stand in a corner now!!

[Methuselah]

I'll go and stand in a corner now!!

lol Have a great Xmas, Solar!!!

[Solar Cycles]

lol Have a great Xmas, Solar!!!

You too Pete, looks like we may be even colder and snowier soon after!! Edited December 24, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[shuggee]

Some seem to be doing rather well with pennies worth of equipment....and seriously better than the 'super' tens of millions pounds of computer at their disposal?????????

BFTP

Who you got in mind Fred? I've not read in anybody's LRF about this cold spell significant for its intensity and duration - and the CET competition suggests nor did the majority of members. Which is really the first and crucial test in month one of a three month seasonal LRF. But I'll give credit where it's due...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Who you got in mind Fred? I've not read in anybody's LRF about this cold spell significant for its intensity and duration - and the CET competition suggests nor did the majority of members. Which is really the first and crucial test in month one of a three month seasonal LRF. But I'll give credit where it's due...

Hi Shugster, Merry Christmas

Oddly enough Piers Corbyn has been almost spot on....really. GP has been very good too.

Fred

[shuggee]

*Goes off to look*

[cj114]

Joe B has got it correct so far this Winter too.

As we have a long way to go, it will be interesting to see what happens in the New Year.

Meanwhile, Merry Christmas everyone and thanks to all the posters [you know who you are] that have given such good advice on the forums.

For people like me who have no weather experience other than a short course in the 70's when I worked for The aircraft owners and pilots assoc, where my job was to call up and ask about the weather among other things.

Cheers everyone.

Piers Corbyn? really?

Edited December 25, 2009 by cj114

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

METO winter forecast update now suggests highest percentile likelihood of the rest of the winter being colder than average for NW Europe and UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Edited December 30, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cyclonic happiness]

METO winter forecast update now suggests highest percentile likelihood of the rest of the winter being colder than average for NW Europe and UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Points to signiture...