Met Office Winter Forecast

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

The Netweather long range forecast has just been updated, looking ahead to the remainder of Autumn and into Winter (and we've had a much better record than the Meto this year don't forget )

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

Yee, it looks well... Average.

Average isn't bad though these days :]

[Solar Cycles]

The Netweather long range forecast has just been updated, looking ahead to the remainder of Autumn and into Winter (and we've had a much better record than the Meto this year don't forget )

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

Thanks Paul, now that's what I call an update, informative, non bias, and prepared to stick one's neck out!

[johnholmes]

My dad found last winter to be average but he was born in Febuary 1946, the 2nd coldest year of the century.

I think, if you look at the CET data files he has been pulling your leg mate!

[Thundery wintry showers]

If the MetO release a forecast like this at the end of November, then I will see fair grounds for criticising them for it. This far out, however, I think it's unrealistic to expect more detail than they have given.

[azores92]

old greggs, are you not getting mistaken with february 1947.

[johnholmes]

his post quoted the YEAR 1946

Feb 1947 was the coldest of the 20th century

neither 1946 nor 1947 annual mean are the lowest of the century.

[The PIT]

I agree with both TM and John.

However for the more technically minded, I would like to see some reasoning as to why the MO think we will be wetter and warmer than average. Something along the lines of encorporating El Nino, Atlantic SSTs, QBO/ strat input, previous analogues such as comparing -NAOs during the summer. For some one like myself the reasoning behind the forecast is just as important as the forecast itself.

c

Agree with that and TM's and John H's comments.

Is there a press release yet???

[mcweather]

Once again the Meto early indications for winter are creating much debate on this forum and I have to say that I think it is the lack of explanation as to how they've reached their early indications conclusions that is probably the source of much of the frustration.

I,m afraid that to say that I think The Watcher has a valid point. Anyone with a modest knowledge of the British climate

could have made the early indication conclusion published today which in reality is little more than a statement of the range of British winter weather.

However I think one also has to read between the lines. The 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter section suggests to me that they feel things are far from certain given the mixed signals and come the actual forecast in November I think you'll find that they will be playing the cold card a little more strongly than they are at the minute.

[DAVID SNOW]

The Netweather long range forecast has just been updated, looking ahead to the remainder of Autumn and into Winter (and we've had a much better record than the Meto this year don't forget )

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Interesting , they have millions invested in their super computers etc... and NW trumps them , perhaps some of the money could be pushed your way with your smaller super computers

[damianslaw]

Not much detail in the Meto winter forecast update at this stage is to be expected I feel.

I believe the reference to a 1 in 7 chance of a colder winter could be signifying that things are perhpas beginning to not as clear cut on an odds on mild winter, the tone of language to me suggests that come November an emphasis on near average rather than average temperatures could be the Meto call which consequently would remove reference to it being likely to be warmer than last year and more towards on a par with last year , no science in this just my gut feeling and instinct, I think the way this September has gone with high pressure dominating caught many forecasters out and suggests that patterns this year much like last winter are not going down the form horse route.. interesting times ahead I feel.

[Methuselah]

Seems to me, that the MetO is merely making use of the degree of knowledge as it currently stands. At least their not claiming analogues with 1962 or 47, or a mini Ice Age??

[Mondy]

The main forecast for Winter 2009/10 will be issued in November

......when we all be chest deep in snow and temps not reaching above -5c in the afternoon!

I could've written that early indication from the Met Office. Do they think the general public are naive or even thick? It says nothing except rambles on. NOBODY can do long term forecasts, and if they do, inform me how you do them, and the final results, with or without these "precious" super-computers the Meto and others keep banging on about.

And don't even mention the phrase "even larger teapot" - that truly is a joke saying.

[jethro]

Isn't the METO caught between a rock and a hard place though? Businesses and the general public want and expect early forecasts; to do one now with any detail would require a crystal ball so they do the best they can, with the information they have. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[Mondy]

If NASA can't predict or forecast Solar Cycle 24, what chances do the Met O have?!

[jethro]

If NASA can't predict or forecast Solar Cycle 24, what chances do the Met O have?!

What on earth has that got to do with producing a forecast for the early indications of what this forthcoming winter will be like?

[Methuselah]

It seem as if off-topicness is creeping-in again...

[Mondy]

What on earth has that got to do with producing a forecast for the early indications of what this forthcoming winter will be like?

Are you saying the Meto are the wholly grail of weather forecasting and NASA are the wholly grail of Space exploration? Because I am. And NASA can't even FORECAST cycle 24, so how can the Meto (in their specialised field) forecast ahead ? Geddit?

[jethro]

No Mondy, I'm saying the METO have done the best they can with the tools available to them and that NASA and cycle 24 have absolutely nothing to do with this thread.

If the METO had padded their forecast out with more detailed information, they'd then face all the accusations of "how can they possibly say that, when they can't get next week right".

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[londonsnow]

It seem as if off-topicness is creeping-in again...

i'd say off topicness (is that a word?) is where we are at the moment. i think most are now bored of the met forecast, and will do, as i will, wait and see!

[mcweather]

I think the Meto see a lot of contradictory signals at the moment. If they were absolutely sure that the coming winter was going to be near or above average there would be no reason at all to even mention anything about something as low as a I in 7 chance of a cold winter. I think they they have put this in because although the signals they see may slightly favour an above average winter at the moment they can see a decent possibility of that changing, and the cold winter chance increasing.

Come the October update or November forecast they will then legitimately be able to say that the cold chances have increased

having already mentioned them ( albeit as an outside chance ) in the September release. Whereas if they hadn't mentioned the possibility now they would stand accused of having completely changed their forecast from mild to cold.

[damianslaw]

I think the Meto see a lot of contradictory signals at the moment. If they were absolutely sure that the coming winter was going to be near or above average there would be no reason at all to even mention anything about something as low as a I in 7 chance of a cold winter. I think they they have put this in because although the signals they see may slightly favour an above average winter at the moment they can see a decent possibility of that changing, and the cold winter chance increasing.

Come the October update or November forecast they will then legitimately be able to say that the cold chances have increased

having already mentioned them ( albeit as an outside chance ) in the September release. Whereas if they hadn't mentioned the possibility now they would stand accused of having completely changed their forecast from mild to cold.

In other words your saying they have put the 1 in 7 quote in the September update as a precursory safety net for when they issue there first official forecast in November, makes good common sense I feel considering recent poor form during the summer, when they widely got slated for mentioning barbeque summer, they are professionals and professionals are notorious in whatever line of work they do for needing to play it cautious.

[londonsnow]

havent seen todays papers but the online versions have only shown a moderate interest in the met office forecast for winter 09/10. the comments made are rather snide from some, thanks to memories of the bbq summer prediction, although the 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter has been highlighted. i still would love to know how this figure was arrived at. more interesting and spliced into several articles is reading universities research into the phenomenon of power station snowfall, which i've never heard of before

[mcweather]

In other words your saying they have put the 1 in 7 quote in the September update as a precursory safety net for when they issue there first official forecast in November, makes good common sense I feel considering recent poor form during the summer, when they widely got slated for mentioning barbeque summer, they are professionals and professionals are notorious in whatever line of work they do for needing to play it cautious.

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying. There is no doubt with these Met Office forecasts that you do have to read between the lines slightly. If they really absolutely thought without any doubt that the coming winter was going to be average to above average temperature wise. There would be no need to mention the I in 7 chance of a cold winter at all.

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest the 1 in 7 chance thing means absolutely nothing to me and i just gotta feeling they most likely going to be right last winter must of been a freak event.

even net weathers lrf is pointing towards average,

and yes i know its early days yet,

but i think joe b is about the only person who really thinks this cold thing is gonna happen.

the alantic is coming to life very soon so could this be the start of the strengthening el nino,

i would of thought theres a connection somewhere along the lines.

although on the flip side sw flows have been few and far between for sometime now but this could change to with a strengthening alantic.

how about the jet it seems to have spent some time north lately could this be the general picture through out winter.

all thease factors could really ruin hopes of a good winter.

and yes i agree it still far to early to be giving up i know been looking around the web today at arctic temps canada alaska siberia northern russia nothing really to be excited about compared to other years.

[shuggee]

Full seasonal forecast to be published "in November":

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

IIRC aren't these forecasts usually released on Thursdays? If so - is tomorrow the day...?