Met Office Winter Forecast

[WhiteXmas]

I think the met office are very keen to sit on the fence when it comes to seasonal forecasts(although I suppose you can understand why they would) and last winter their warning system was ridiculously bad; didn't even issue a warning for some places who received many cm's of snow.

Edited November 26, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[londonsnow]

Full seasonal forecast to be published "in November":

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

IIRC aren't these forecasts usually released on Thursdays? If so - is tomorrow the day...?

well it wasnt thursday so has to be today or monday. i guess today is more likely

[stewfox]

Who won the met forecast competition then ?

[londonsnow]

met office winter forecast is out. suggesting 50% chance of milder winter, 30% average, and 20% colder. the daily express will be furious!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

met office winter forecast is out. suggesting 50% chance of milder winter, 30% average, and 20% colder. the daily express will be furious!

I think you've missed the obvious potential headline...

..."Met Office increase chance of colder winter from 1 in 7 to 1 in 5"

[Methuselah]

met office winter forecast is out. suggesting 50% chance of milder winter, 30% average, and 20% colder. the daily express will be furious!

The Daily Express is always furious!

[londonsnow]

I think you've missed the obvious potential headline...

..."Met Office increase chance of colder winter from 1 in 7 to 1 in 5"

lol, but its not the most gripping of headlines is it

[kold weather]

So an improvment on the cold side of things, indeed they now saying a 50-50 chance for either mild or conditions at average or below, which is actually quite interesting when put like that I think.

[Methuselah]

I think the MetO forecast is fine: they're using probability to 'try' and get things across to a general public who, by-and-large, has very little understanding of the concept?? If the Met says anything greater than 50%, the media will have a field-day making simplistic headlines - It WILL be this, that or the other...It's Official!!! Meanwhile, the Boys From The Blogs will pat each-other on the backs no-matter how accurate (or not) their respective forecasts turn out??

IMO, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't??

[grab my graupel]

So an improvment on the cold side of things, indeed they now saying a 50-50 chance for either mild or conditions at average or below, which is actually quite interesting when put like that I think.

Yes, definitely, Darren. I see it as quite a positive step for cold lovers

[shuggee]

Yep, that's my take on those stats too GMG/KW. Encouraging indeed for colder prospects.

[nick sussex]

I must say the met office winter forecast leaves alot to be desired, this is a foolproof method of avoiding fall out as whatever scenario plays out can be justified by this new obsession with percentages!

And how on earth do they come up with these percentages, this is IMO very poor, normally i defend the met office but this is very shoddy, i wonder if things will improve when they sell it off, amongst many British institutions that the government is flogging, how can anyone trust a government that even at one time was thinking of selling Air Traffic Control!

Moan over, mods feel free to move this to the whine thread!

[londonsnow]

I have to say i agree with nick. the percentage thing does seem fatuous. how they come up with those figures is anyones guess. the met office are world class, but only, in my opinion in the realistic term. i'm sure they have their methods but ultimately it's a bit of a stab in the dark

[Methuselah]

If only individuals and institutions were less-easily intimidated into never being able to say, 'I don't know'?

[Don]

Funny, the Met Office Winter forecast hasn't updated when I log on to their site. Anyway, their offical forecast could be worse for us coldies and they do think the chances of a colder Winter have increased, which I didn't really expect them to do.

[KTtom]

Well, finally they have released thir Winter forecast and once again I'm totally underwhelmed by the amount of data and effort they have put into it. Compared to GP's its an insult, and yes, I would say the same even if they did forecast 80% colder.

So there we have it, colder/average = 50%, milder =50%...gee, thanks Met...hope no-one spent too long on it!

[MR EXTREMES]

yes met o seems to be the odd one out,

two outlook going for coldest since 79 weather online aswell looking at a colder winter and lets not forget accur weather.

so this year i be intrested to see what happens because if the met office is wrong then i will be shouting pro warming.

sorry two outlook have not predicted this teach me for just reading the big bold headlines,

not saying im looking forward or hoping for a cold winter lol.

Edited November 27, 2009 by badboy657

[Thundery wintry showers]

I, too, am underwhelmed by the new emphasis on probabilities and little detail in the Met Office seasonal forecasts.

I think there's a good chance that it's not part of the overall dumbing-down process but rather a desire to avoid being relentlessly misquoted by the press and roasted alive if any aspect of the forecast turns out to be wrong and hasn't been covered by a probability figure. After all, the MetO got roasted alive for their accurate Winter 2005/06 forecast where they were misquoted as predicting the coldest winter since 1962/63 (Piers Corbyn cough cough), as well as being roasted alive for the ill-considered, ill-fated "barbecue summer" forecast in 2009. I've noticed them becoming increasingly defensive of their forecasts in recent months, which again could be symptomatic of the same thing. It's pretty sad if this is indeed the case.

As some others have said- damned if they do and damned if they don't?

[chionomaniac]

There is no reason why the Met office cannot release this information, in it's present form, avoiding sensationalist press office quotes, whilst also providing a more in depth reasoning to those that would like it as to why they have come to their conclusions. If they end up being wrong then so be it, but at least we could all see and understand as to how they have come to their conclusions. I certainly wouldn't criticise them on that basis.

Edited November 27, 2009 by chionomaniac

[Methuselah]

There is no reason why the Met office cannot release this information, in it's present form, avoiding sensationalist press office quotes, whilst also providing a more in depth reasoning to those that would like it as to why they have come to there conclusions. If they end up being wrong then so be it, but at least we could all see and understand as to how they have come to their conclusions. I certainly wouldn't criticise them on that basis.

You wouldn't, ch, and neither would I. But, unfortunately, the (scientifically bereft) Press combined with the blogospheric 'Met-bashers,' would pillory them; whilst, strangley enough, simultaneously applauding all of the Internet 'amateurs' for each and every hit (however minor and rare) they claim to make...

I've absolutely no idea why Piers Corbyn is seen as anything other than a 'crank,' tbh. But (for what I can only assume to be political reasons) the right-wing Press seems to fawn all over him!

[Solar Cycles]

The MetO never cease to amaze me, how much was that super computer again?

Still now we know it's about as much use as a chocolate fireguard, when it's pre programmed with AGW bias. Sorry John couldn't resist !!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I just think that this latest forecast, along with lack of detail, emphasises that they are 'not sure'.

I would suggest that despite the mild percentage given - they are less confident about the outcome this winter than they were in their provisional suggestions early in the autumn. The finely poised balance of factors in terms of the winter - nino, stratsosphere etc leaves room for the next update to move further in its direction imo.

One could certainly question their percentages if desired, but in view of the factors in play this year, and despite the lack of detail, then the overall 'tone' of the update can't be criticised.

Edited November 27, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[ThunderStorms]

In uk, winter in my opinion can be mild or cold, maybe mild in western regions and cold in eastern regions !!

About rainfall for nothern europe, i think the MetOffice word is: "I DONT KNOW"

Edited November 27, 2009 by ThunderStorms

[Alex95]

In a way I think that the Met Office forecast isn't too badly set out. They clearly don't know how the winter is going to play out which is why there isn't a proper forecast as such - in some years they've said things like 'a colder December is likely'. I think they said that for December 2007? So rather than say they haven't a clue and leave people completely in the dark, they set out the %chance of mild, average and cold etc. so that people can review it and get an idea for themselves. I'm sure people would be more angry if they said 'signals are too weak to make a forecast', or something along the lines of that

[cyclonic happiness]

I feel sorry for then tbh, they never seem to be able to tell anyone what they want to hear (except the global warming brigade).

I think they should abandon their long range seasonable forecast until they are a little more reliable and less "whatever".

It would make life for us a whole lot more interesting.