Storm/convective Discussion

[dogs32]

well Anyweather every weather forecast I have seen this morning are going for some torrentail down pours for tomorrow with Thunder and Lightning....

I think today its going to be the nOrth for any Storms..

Good luck Stu Im sure you have a chance to see some action today...

[Coast]

oh dear Carol just said today's storms will be "humdingers" we all know what will happen now...

Yes, it would be nice to see Carol's humdingers today :blink:

ESTOFEX are having it:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 01 Jul 2009 06:00 to Thu 02 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 30 Jun 2009 21:57

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for portions of Poland, the Czech Republic, eastern Austria and surroundings mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for the north-eastern British Isles for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale weather pattern has not changed significantly across most of Europe. To the east of low geopotential over the northern Atlantic, the airmass is unstable over a large area in the range of weak geopotential gradients. A weak upper ridge stretches from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia, while mid-level heights remain lower over the Balkan. A frontal system belonging to an Atlantic low will affect Ireland and Great Britain.

For most of Europe, weak vertical wind shear is forecast, and storms will tend to move very slowly, contributing to pulse type storms with local flash floods, to possibly more excessive convective rain events near persistent convergence zones. Isolated landspouts are also not ruled out.

Across north-western Russia, rather strong vertical wind shear is expected in the range of an amplifying short-wave trough moving eastward, and vertical wind shear will likely overlap with instability. Mid-level winds will also increase compared to yesterday over extremely western Europe as the Atlantic trough slowly moves eastward, but low-level cold air advection is expected to limit convective potential there.

DISCUSSION UK

A nearly saturated airmass with large precipitable water content is advected from the south and CAPE is predicted to develop especially over the central portions. Storm motion will be relatively slow and oriented along the source of lift. Regenerating convection may therefore keep training along a line for extended periods, leading to local flash floods. In Ireland the same moist airmass passes but with almost no instability due to rather cool low-level air masses.

So are the UKASF:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-30 20:47:00

Valid: 2009-07-01 00:00:00 - 2009-07-01 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Most of mainland Scotland, Northern England, North & Central Wales ( Northern Ireland, the Midlands, SW/CS England and remaining areas of Wales, Scotland and Northern England are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

HIGH pressure centred over the North Sea, and a straggling cold front draped over western UK, will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Wednesday. The weather front over Northern Ireland, Ireland and western Scotland will bring showery outbreaks of rain here for much of the day. East of this front, but away from eastern/southeastern England, scattered, but fairly isolated, heavy showers are expected to develop quite quickly during the day, with thunderstorms also likely across northern UK. Slow-moving thunderstorms, with torrential rain and hail, could cause localised flash flooding. Showers and storms are thought to die away quickly during the evening hours, although may persist across parts of southern and eastern Scotland a little longer. Outbreaks of heavy rain are forecast to develop over Southwest England late in the evening near the end of this forecast period - however there is still some considerable uncertainty between the models as to how widespread and heavy this rain will be, and if it will be electrical or not. As a result an update may be issued should the original forecast change significantly.

So are the Yanks:

And even the WAFC/South Africans:

GFS says yes to the West:

TORRO say no.

Lancashire and Cumbria today then?????

Edited July 1, 2009 by Coast

[Supacell]

Yes I reckon areas like Lancashire and Cumbria today, with the Welsh borders area later on as storms continue over aforementioned areas. Also, i am thinking with so much CAPE, a LI of -6 and orographic uplift there could be some decent storms around the northern Pennines. All this is likely to push into Scotland too so a good chance for the peeps up there.

Tomorrow looks interesting with the front moving into very hot and humid conditions. CAPE is not as high as it maybe is for northern parts today but the trigger will be there. Widespread storms for some western areas tomorrow day and transferring eastwards during the evening and night.

[Stuart]

well Anyweather every weather forecast I have seen this morning are going for some torrentail down pours for tomorrow with Thunder and Lightning....

I think today its going to be the nOrth for any Storms..

Good luck Stu Im sure you have a chance to see some action today...

hope so becuse i miss out to a storm on tue it was to my east

[sconetone]

Lancashire & Cumbria?

Hope so, would be verrry nice but after the night-time show I had I won't complain if I miss out

[Stubbette]

BBC Breakfast NW news reported funnels, an intense storm (10+ strikes per minute) and two houses struck by lightning and set on fire in and around Southport at 2am. Missed that one... again!

[loopydreamer]

BBC Breakfast NW news reported funnels, an intense storm (10+ strikes per minute) and two houses struck by lightning and set on fire in and around Southport at 2am. Missed that one... again!

omg! hope these guys were alright! :blink:

[Harry]

oh dear Carol just said today's storms will be "humdingers" we all know what will happen now...

Looks like being so changeable both the next few days and right the way through the weekend. Seems we are going to have a few, rather shallow, L pressure systems running around us, taking variable paths as is the nature of them, but at the same time appearing to provide convective opportunities for many different areas.

Edited July 1, 2009 by Harry

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Potential probably the word again for today.

NW forecast (for here) going for around 50% chance of T-Storms from late morning, but no rain.

Radar is looking rather dry bar the showers (front) in the Irish Sea.

Strikestar looking quite so far too.

Very humid though, and the mornings have become progressively humid since the start of the week.

We did get some rain overnight, but i've found the nack to find out if its going to rain. Simply water your garden, and within a few hours, it will rain

[Harry]

For my area, Weds 0%, Thurs 0%, Fri 10%, Sat 10%, Sun 45%....

Kaddy's forecast looking very accurate so far, lol.

[Kain]

Well then, Day 5 of having storm warnings out for the west midlands. Iv'e actually given up, we aint going to get em! The forcasters are talking through there backsides.

Now I hope to be proved wrong.

(Hmm this reverse phsychology stuff might just work!)

Failing that, sun is out here, and feels hotter than its been all week/end. Woke up sweating like a pig! Shower time me thinks.

Come on guys, fingers crossed for Weather09, SalopWatcher and Myself today, look at it another way, It will stop us moaning

Kain

[Kain]

Don't know if anyone seen this, but looks like the kid who was hit by lightning in brum has died

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090701/tuk-li...es-dba1618.html

Makes you feel bad doesn't it, while were begging for them and enjoying them, people are getting killed by them

[Coast]

Kaddy's forecast looking very accurate so far, lol.

It's because she sneaks in here of a morning and checks this thread before she makes a TV forecast!!!!

Morning Kaddy!

[SalopWatcher]

Well then, Day 5 of having storm warnings out for the west midlands. Iv'e actually given up, we aint going to get em! The forcasters are talking through there backsides.

Now I hope to be proved wrong.

(Hmm this reverse phsychology stuff might just work!)

Failing that, sun is out here, and feels hotter than its been all week/end. Woke up sweating like a pig! Shower time me thinks.

Come on guys, fingers crossed for Weather09, SalopWatcher and Myself today, look at it another way, It will stop us moaning

Kain

To be fair I dont moan :lol:

That said all we have had in the last week was a late night storm Saturday just gone, although it was overhead which was nice.

Think we might be a tad too far south and east today again though, as the shows skirt up Mid East Wales. Have the car tonight so if anything is 30 odd miles off the chase will be on however.

Nothing to report here today other than its muggy again, sun poaking through sooner than it has done last couple of days.

[dogs32]

looks like some heavy cells brewing in the Bay of Biscay...Is this maybe the heavy rain for tomorrow

[Kain]

To be fair I dont moan

That said all we have had in the last week was a late night storm Saturday just gone, although it was overhead which was nice.

Think we might be a tad too far south and east today again though, as the shows skirt up Mid East Wales. Have the car tonight so if anything is 30 odd miles off the chase will be on however.

Nothing to report here today other than its muggy again, sun poaking through sooner than it has done last couple of days.

Extofex and a few others have us in the level 1 zone - all be it only just so there certianly is hope. Ive actuqlly spotted some AcCas which is a nice sign so early in the day.

I actually think its our best chance today to catch one of these storms, I'm sure Nick or Brick will probably tell me otherwise though.

One can hope lol

Edited July 1, 2009 by Kane

[Harry]

Extofex and a few others have us in the level 1 zone - all be it only just so there certianly is hope. Ive actuqlly spotted some AcCas which is a nice sign so early in the day.

I actually think its our best chance today to catch one of these storms, I'm sure Nick or Brick will probably tell me otherwise though.

One can hope lol

Nick or Brick, lol - NW's answer to the dynamic duo!

ooks like some heavy cells brewing in the Bay of Biscay...Is this maybe the heavy rain for tomorrow

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The mist around the SE/EA coastline on that satellite image IMO is quite picturesque!

Edited July 1, 2009 by Harry

[Faye]

For those in Gloucestershire http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/glo...il/article.html

Here's hoping!

[dogs32]

For those in Gloucestershire http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/glo...il/article.html

Here's hoping!

the TV presenters havent backed down on this one........so yes here's hoping

[Phil UK]

Don't know if anyone seen this, but looks like the kid who was hit by lightning in brum has died

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090701/tuk-li...es-dba1618.html

Makes you feel bad doesn't it, while were begging for them and enjoying them, people are getting killed by them

Died on Monday evening apparently. Small Heath is about 4-5 miles north west of me. and might explain the unexpected massive crack of thunder heard late on Saturday.

Coast :

That 'just got out of bed' look.

And I tend to disagree with the temperatures down there. Even in Solihull last night was a minima of 19ºc. (No wonder I couldn't sleep! )

Anyway, seems like more convection overnight than during all of yesterday in strong sunshine going by certain reports. Here in sunny Solihull, it's erm... Quite sunny, muggy as heck, lots of mid level altocumulus. Breeze picking up a bit.

Could be an interesting day.

Phil.

Edited July 1, 2009 by Phil UK

[Darren Bown]

Looks like I'm in the firing line, never seen Manchester mentioned so much in once BBC weather forecast, all of it for thundery, muggy and tonight, warm weather hehe.

[Wilxy]

To all you weather lovers this may be the last chance for everyone to see a decent storm today or tomorow im im begging we see a thunderstorm tomorow as iv only seen distant flashes and rumbles heres hoping

[karyo]

To all you weather lovers this may be the last chance for everyone to see a decent storm today or tomorow im im begging we see a thunderstorm tomorow as iv only seen distant flashes and rumbles heres hoping

And why is this our last chance? Low pressure will slowly take control over the UK over the weekend onwards. Showers can be expected on most days and these should occassionally give thunder.

Karyo

[Carl46Wrexham]

If anything summed up the reason for my scepticism of the Met Office forecasts/warnings...it was summed up this morning for me by that infuriatingly chirpy burpy Kirkwood woman. It's one thing when they get forecasts wrong...or put out screamingly inaccurate warnings but this morning...she did the ultimate in stating that my part of the country was "under a lot of cloud blah blah hefty showers.."

I nearly spat my coffee out when she said that.....then just to make sure I was not going mad..I looked outside again at the clear blue sky and blazing sunshine!

if they cant get nowcasts right, how are we supposed to believe the forecasts?

[Paul R]

If anything summed up the reason for my scepticism of the Met Office forecasts/warnings...it was summed up this morning for me by that infuriatingly chirpy burpy Kirkwood woman. It's one thing when they get forecasts wrong...or put out screamingly inaccurate warnings but this morning...she did the ultimate in stating that my part of the country was "under a lot of cloud blah blah hefty showers.."

I nearly spat my coffee out when she said that.....then just to make sure I was not going mad..I looked outside again at the clear blue sky and blazing sunshine!

if they cant get nowcasts right, how are we supposed to believe the forecasts?

Did you get that storm earlier this morning Carl?