Storm/convective Discussion

[Nick F]

Hi Nick, can you send me the link to that please? the link i have in my favourites isn't working.

Cheers

The larger scale Atd sferic map for the UK I use is only available by subscription I'm afriad, but this one has Atd sferics for NW Europe but is smaller scale:

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

[Ross B]

The larger scale Atd sferic map for the UK I use is only available by subscription I'm afriad, but this one has Atd sferics for NW Europe but is smaller scale:

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Thanks

[Bronski]

Hello Everyone.

While looking about the net, found this picture which is prety cool and thought some of you would like to see it!

Does anyone know if Friday is still the day to watch for T&L?

Enjoy the picture :-)

[Kain]

So now the sun finally shines. Why couldn't it have done that earlier? Could have helped convective developments. I have to say that the heat and humidity is ridiculous now (Humidex of 33C) If the sun had been shining from the morning this certainly would have felt like one of the hottest days in years.

I agree too little to late now.

5th day in a row we have been missed lol.

[Fitzwis]

So close and yet so far with that cell that was heading our way

I won't bother cranking those turbines up just yet Harry...

[maidstone weather]

Hello Everyone.

While looking about the net, found this picture which is prety cool and thought some of you would like to see it!

Does anyone know if Friday is still the day to watch for T&L?

Enjoy the picture :-)

according to GFS Friday is a write-off!

Why should I endure endless sweaty nights with lack of sleep and not be rewarded?

Nice pic btw

[Bronski]

according to GFS Friday is a write-off!

Why should I endure endless sweaty nights with lack of sleep and not be rewarded?

Nice pic btw

OH NO, Friday is a write off already?

Where did it go?

[leightonw890]

Afternoon all!

Well what a beautiful day, apart from the cloud that has kept a lid on things with me all day, but, just as hope almost at an all time low, darkness to my south, moving north over me atm, but hay, looking promising for mid wales! Just looked at GFS, what happened to Thursday! Was showing Cape of 2100, now dropped to low hundreds.

[Snowyowl9]

It`s gone more humid and hazy in the last hour and sunnier,did here 2 rumbles of thunder,could just make out an anvil

not all that far away to the west,but theres still alot of AC cloud,think that was a couple of rumbles just then!!!,a few more TCU development to the SW aswell.

Infact a much better view now going out for a look.

[chapmanslade]

mind you the forecast has changed so abruptly in one GFS run it seems pointless looking at forecasts - wait n see!

That I'm afraid is the mistake too many are making on this forum. The GFS runs are NOT forecasts, nothing has been 'promised' and the detail shown at say 5 days realistically isn't there. Use the models to inform you of patterns and then make your own forecasts based on that plus experience and knowledge.

The weather this week has pretty much done as expected on a broad scale , just the fine detail makes all the difference at a local level.

[dogs32]

BBC weather girl saying Thursday the country .. will go out with a bang.

her words...........

From area of rain to the west

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[stormchaser1]

Very clammy outside at the minute, current temp 23.2c

Just Noticed strikes to the East of me North Sea region , also seeing stikes towards Hartlepool and Middlesbrough region{can anyone confirm}

10.9mm rain fell in the early hours of this morning,

[Faye]

Sure I just heard 2 rumbles coming from Staunton

[Shaun L]

That I'm afraid is the mistake too many are making on this forum. The GFS runs are NOT forecasts, nothing has been 'promised' and the detail shown at say 5 days realistically isn't there. Use the models to inform you of patterns and then make your own forecasts based on that plus experience and knowledge.

The weather this week has pretty much done as expected on a broad scale , just the fine detail makes all the difference at a local level.

[b]Spot on. The forecast for the storms has always been "isolated or widely scattered" and this is what they have been. Storm predicition is always difficult due to the large number of ingredients needed and therefore as stated the models should be used as guidance not gospel.

Edited June 30, 2009 by shaun l

[Stuart]

BBC weather girl saying Thursday the country .. will go out with a bang.

her words...........

From area of rain to the west

wooooooooooo hope there move the warning more to the east

[Mullet69]

Thunderstorm at Thirsk from what they said on racing UK. Some real cracks coming over on the coverage. Here in York it's gloomy but nothing like 23 miles up the road.

I was meant to be going too

Edit - pictures have now been lost

Edited June 30, 2009 by Mullet69

[TonyH]

Great CB a couple of hours ago over Aberystwyth way, north of here, indeed over 22mm according to NW radar up there this afternoon. A weak storm here ongoing, TL within a couple of miles every 5 minutes or so and with heavy rainfall, giving 4mm past 20 minutes.

It has been quite hot and humid today with sunny intervals and a lot of cloud, Max 28c!

[WS Evolution]

Thunderstorm at Thirsk from what they said on racing UK. Some real cracks coming over on the coverage. Here in York it's gloomy but nothing like 23 miles up the road.

I was meant to be going too

Edit - pictures have now been lost

Repeated lighting strikes visitable and allot rumbling through the Vale of York. Lightning looks like its sticking the ground, rather then cloud to cloud.

Netweathers lightning map shows it nicely.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Edited June 30, 2009 by WS Evolution

[Mullet69]

Repeated lighting strikes visitable and allot rumbling through the Vale of York. Lightning looks like its sticking the ground, rather then cloud to cloud.

Netweathers lightning map shows it nicely.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

How bizarre, not a sight or sound in York, must be literally half a dozen miles away.

Whereabouts in VoY are you mate?

[Nick F]

according to GFS Friday is a write-off!

Why should I endure endless sweaty nights with lack of sleep and not be rewarded?

Nice pic btw

Oh dear - another slave to the GFS model output!!

Don't take any output for gospel when it comes to dealing with convection, they often don't handle accurately storm potential more than 24hrs out I find.

Thursday evening and overnight into Friday looks the time when storms will arrive across more eastern areas before less hot and humid conditions move in from the southwest on Friday.

[Carl46Wrexham]

BBC weather girl saying Thursday the country .. will go out with a bang.

her words........... :lol:

From area of rain to the west

Errrr...yeah righto....bang as in the equivalent of an amoeba sized Christmas cracker....believe it when I see/hear it weather girl

[WS Evolution]

How bizarre, not a sight or sound in York, must be literally half a dozen miles away.

Whereabouts in VoY are you mate?

Between York and Easingwold. The storms between Easingwold and Thirsk.

[Harry]

Anyone who has NW radar, re-run the last 2 hrs and pay close attention to Jersey and poor Fitzwis!

Has Jersey got a shield or what?? They look to move N and literally deflect at a 45+ degree angle away...incredible!

[maidstone weather]

Oh dear - another slave to the GFS model output!!

Don't take any output for gospel when it comes to dealing with convection, they often don't handle accurately storm potential more than 24hrs out I find.

Thursday evening and overnight into Friday looks the time when storms will arrive across more eastern areas before less hot and humid conditions move in from the southwest on Friday.

thanks Nick - i saw the potential trough on the FAX chart this morning but there is a trend on the GFS which I am not liking. Incidentally, why has the latest output FAX chart for 0z Friday not been uploaded? The others have been updated but not the 0z for Friday (it's still the old 12z for Thurs)

Edit: oh now it works :lol: but I'm not liking it!

Edited June 30, 2009 by maidstone weather

[leightonw890]

No convection taking place in Gwent area, so am off to enjoy a can in the garden. Enjoy your evening people, and be lucky!!