Storm/convective Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

Severe weather warning has been issued for Wales

Scattered, heavy, thundery showers developing across the area may give 15 to 25mm of rainfall in a short space of time in places, with a very localised risk of up to 40mm. Heavy showers will not be everywhere and some parts may remain generally dry. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Wales for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1516 Tue 30 Jun

[A.J]

Pat, Jane...anything happening down your end yet, any clearer skies or still this Ac rubbish?....for us West Midlanders, for any storms, you'll be the breeding ground today :lol:

[thunderhead 2005]

looking at the latest SAT24 the storms in northern france may take a E - NE track from that front pushing in from the west arrrg :lol:

[Carl46Wrexham]

Severe weather warning has been issued for Wales

Scattered, heavy, thundery showers developing across the area may give 15 to 25mm of rainfall in a short space of time in places, with a very localised risk of up to 40mm. Heavy showers will not be everywhere and some parts may remain generally dry. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Wales for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1516 Tue 30 Jun

Oh hell...not another one!

They've already given two duff warnings in recent days...might as well go for the hat trick eh? There's more chance of them finding Elvis on the moon than there is of any thunder today....I'll eat my hat if I turn out to be wrong. :lol: PISH TOSH!

Edited June 30, 2009 by Carl43Wrexham

[dogs32]

Pat, Jane...anything happening down your end yet, any clearer skies or still this Ac rubbish?....for us West Midlanders, for any storms, you'll be the breeding ground today :lol:

yes...sometimes they are worth taking pics......but 20 mins later they look crap......

but when they are shooting up you would think this is it with some of the sizes

[Harry]

Interesting that these charts etc predicted the same thing, and as of yet, it's not happened...

As of yet, its still only 15:28 - we are at the longest time of the year so IMO, would look between 3 and 5 for initiation - storms then to continue developing before decaying after dark (that's 11pm) - so another good 2-3 hours for initiation, 3 hours or so thereafter to feel the effects!

looking at the latest SAT24 the storms in northern france may take a E - NE track from that front pushing in from the west arrrg

As in E or N/E towards the SE, or E or N/E towards our friends in NE France/Benelux? :lol:

EDIT - Just checked - can't believe I was dim enough to ask!

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[NL]

Cu field now starting to develop just to the SW of London and another trying from the wash northwestwards

see if these can start to build.

Sat24

[thunderhead 2005]

more likely to towards our friends in NE France/Benelux,pfff typical

[Darren Bown]

As of yet, its still only 15:28 - we are at the longest time of the year so IMO, would look between 3 and 5 for initiation - storms then to continue developing before decaying after dark (that's 11pm) - so another good 2-3 hours for initiation, 3 hours or so thereafter to feel the effects!

As in E or N/E towards the SE, or E or N/E towards our friends in NE France/Benelux? :lol:

EDIT - Just checked - can't believe I was dim enough to ask!

But didn't the charts also spot the thunderyness coming up this morning that didn't seem to occur?

It's about 24C here, a good 4C lower than predicted and not had a single ray of sunshine all day! Stark contrast to yesterdays heat.

[Harry]

Thursday's chart looking a bit better with a burst of CAPE spreading in from the SE - Friday looking marginally better.

As of 1500 - London 31C, while just down the M4, Cardiff 22C - astonishing!

Mind you by the sounds of thing Cardiff may be in with a whiff of something later tonight, depending of course on the track and intensity of the precip forecast to run into the SW

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[Kain]

Hey the banter on here keeps us occupied while nothing is really happening, it's just abit of harmless fun!

Here its clearing nicely now, a few Cu's about above the breaking Ac layer. Getting noticably warmer too. I would report the temp but some lettle bleep broke the guage in my garden!

Hmm I actually think theres still hope today. Afterall I have a 76% risk on the NW front page, and thats for like 22.00.

Kain

[dogs32]

fast convection heading north

and yes the year is wrong I know

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[A.J]

Hey the banter on here keeps us occupied while nothing is really happening, it's just abit of harmless fun!

Here its clearing nicely now, a few Cu's about above the breaking Ac layer. Getting noticably warmer too. I would report the temp but some lettle bleep broke the guage in my garden!

Hmm I actually think theres still hope today. Afterall I have a 76% risk on the NW front page, and thats for like 22.00.

Kain

Its absolutely hoofing it down here Kain, a very muggy 22.2C...need some clearer air further south fairly soon though, as the surface heating clock is ticking!

[fromey]

god this is a dull as ditch water, nothing going on down here, still grey, temp still at 23.0, what happened to the down pours last night, i woke last night to see a bit of drizzle!!.

heat wave, would nt class this as a heat wave, may be in other parts of the country!

so the big question, is anything going to happen for us southerners??? i doubt it! we need the god dam sun!! :lol:

rant over, normal service will now be resumed :lol:

[Lewis]

Here comes the heat now in my area, past few days has been very hazy with some low cloud hanging around, although very humid. Then today "WHAM" UV index sky high, blinding sun and now we jus hit the highet temp of this year at 27.2c, not bad at all. If the BBC forecast heatwave conditions for many parts especially wed/thurs/frid, they should ad Yorkshire/Humber area, regardless of the North SEA, this has no effect at the moment here. If it's 27.2c here today, its going to hit the 30's over the coming few days, but around the 28.4-29.3 mark more likely.

Regarding storms, next few hours should be interesting, very little CAPE but with some instability shunting from the West, it could trigger off some intense surface storms although scattered, hit and miss situation again.

It's saturday that interests me, the GFS this week was going for a breakdown around friday/saturday, now it's looking like saturday night/sunday morning.

Back off outside to do some gardening, just got another labby, this ones chocolate brown and a girl so im building a run for the dogs.

Be back later

lewis

Edited June 30, 2009 by Lewis

[dogs32]

heavy cells forming in Wales

[Marcus_surfer]

heavy cells forming in Wales

very isolated downpours developing, seems most places will miss them though

[fromey]

heavy cells forming in Wales

did you see the one form over northen france on sat24.com, wow thats a big one!!! :lol:

[dogs32]

thunder head trying to form,..pic in a moment

[Kookylou]

Thursday's chart looking a bit better with a burst of CAPE spreading in from the SE - Friday looking marginally better.

As of 1500 - London 31C, while just down the M4, Cardiff 22C - astonishing!

Mind you by the sounds of thing Cardiff may be in with a whiff of something later tonight, depending of course on the track and intensity of the precip forecast to run into the SW

fingers crossed!!!!

[Tim B]

A strong wind has picked up here in the last few minutes and I have no idea where it is coming from as I cannot see any storms nearby, it's a hot wind as well.

[Kookylou]

heavy cells forming in Wales

south wales?? (crosses fingers!!)

[Harry]

Absolute BEAST over N France at the moment :lol: - why oh why can you export yourself to our fair shores?

[dogs32]

more trying to form S/E

I AHVE TURNED THE INCORRECT DATE AND TIME OFF NOW.IF I SEE ANYMORE THUNDERHEADS FORMING WILL TAKE PICS

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[kaz]

god this is a dull as ditch water, nothing going on down here, still grey, temp still at 23.0, what happened to the down pours last night, i woke last night to see a bit of drizzle!!.

heat wave, would nt class this as a heat wave, may be in other parts of the country!

so the big question, is anything going to happen for us southerners??? i doubt it! we need the god dam sun!! :lol:

rant over, normal service will now be resumed :lol:

im with you all the way took words right out of my mouth.. just had a few large drops of rain then zero died a death over me, now starting to pick up across the bristol channel towards Wales.. TUT...

kaz