Storm/convective Discussion

[Muffelchen]

I reckon today has 'bust' and damp squib written all over it.

Please, please prove me wrong...........

[Nick F]

I reckon today has 'bust' and damp squib written all over it.

Please, please prove me wrong...........

Bit early to be calling bust at only 12.30!!

Mind you, there'll still be some that will be unhappy by the end of the day because storms have missed them. In this kind of slack set-up, quite a few areas in the storm risk zone will stay dry - that's the nature of slow moving 'pulse' type storms where it'll be dry and sunny down the road. You just have to go to the storms if they don't come to you.

[SteveB]

Met as a warning out for Thursday

:winky: We all know thats going to change, and usually not for the better.

[richep]

The rain/showers which are crossing the channel are going to run up the central swathe of the country,am I right

[A.J]

Anyone else got a feeling this is going to be the most talked about non event ever?

With this cloud cover, nothing is going to happen, and to be honest. it doesnt look like the sun is going to burn through it either.

This one is going to be interesting, if nothing else frustrating

Kane, just a thought, even though you're under cloud cover, that doesnt mean 'game over'......If there are good cloud breaks upwind (ie south) of you, and storms spawn in these clear skies upwind, then whether you've cloud or not, those storms will drift downwind to you, they may lose intensity possibly, but dont forget if the energy and lift is available, storms can easily re-generate....keep your chin up! :winky:

[dogs32]

:winky: We all know thats going to change, and usually not for the better.

A bit surprised they put a warning out this early to be honest.....

Also the fantastic week.doesn't look as fantastic now on the charts.........but who knows chopping and changing all the time....

I still think the cells are going to produce later...but where is the guess of the nation

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[Carl46Wrexham]

:excl: We all know thats going to change, and usually not for the better.

Met office warning for Thursday...oh well that's Thursday knackered then!

Big downgrade tomorrow.

Light rain and drizzle for Thursday.

Wager anyone? :winky:

Edited June 30, 2009 by Carl43Wrexham

[Snowyowl9]

Around 730 to 8am there was a heavy pulse of showery rain 3mm followed by some quite convective mid-level cloud few showery bits,but since then it`s gone flat with altocumulus,there were a few turrets below that very uninteresting layer,and the sun has broke through also,looks like a little more showery rain heading this way.

[SteveB]

A bit surprised they put a warning out this early to be honest.....

Also the fantastic week.doesn't look as fantastic now on the charts.........but who knows chopping and changing all the time....

I still think the cells are going to produce later...but where is the guess of the nation

Yeah, not so much a heatwave today. Yes it is warm, but under grey skies, with only brief glimpses of the sun. I think this warning is for heavy rain rather than storms.

Don't rate my chances today, a little to far South maybe.

[Faye]

76% chance of a Ts now and the heavens have opened here

Still keeping everything crossed though.

[SteveB]

Met office warning for Thursday...oh well that's Thursday knackered then!

Big downgrade tomorrow.

Light rain and drizzle for Thursday.

Wager anyone?

Or heavy rain but further West.

[Bofh]

worth keeping an eye on that lot just making landfall.

theres still a fair amount of heat thats been absorbed over the last few hours that could help it as it moves north.

fingers crossed as its heading hopefully my way

[Harry]

is positively chilly here and trying to rain

Chilly??

It's amazing how different the weather can be around a relatively small island - one area getting showers/storms and another not is common sense and expected. SE being hot and sunny and cardiff being 'positively chilly', is not...small island, massive contrasts!

That mass coming up from the S is worth watching still

Yeah the warning for Thursday is for heavy thundery rain so it probably isn't going to be thundery showers/thunderstorms affecting this side of the country further into the week. As for the heatwave, that only applies to the SE where they are looking at 3 consecutive days of temps over 30C. For everywhere else it was forecast to be very warm or hot but certainly no expectation of heatwave conditions.

Heatwave....i'll say

Truth be told, I cannot say I find Friday's GFS charts promising at all at the moment - the CAPE for Thursday has already been downgraded a fair bit and pushed E towards SE/EA, then for Friday the best of the CAPE reserved for EA and not so much the SE corner. The hope for imports too looks poor at this stage, with most if not all staying across the channel. Still have two three more days to go, but at this stage - booo!

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[Andy Bown]

The rain/showers which are crossing the channel are going to run up the central swathe of the country,am I right

I'm going for them moving up the Eastern side of Salisbury Plain affecting Hampshire then East-North Wiltshire/Berkshire.

Something wasn't in place for thundery activity overnight/this morning, but there were some very heavy downpours moving Northwards.

[Bofh]

that mass heading for the IOW has more behind it now !

its clouded over a lot here now but was lots of sun this morning not sure how the rest of the south faired and if theres going to be enough surface heating.

time will tell but it would be nice to see some lightning. can't remember the last time i saw any !

[slinky1989]

Sun has finally come out here, maybe get some surface heating in before those showers from the south arrive

[Kookylou]

Chilly??

It's amazing how different the weather can be around a relatively small island - one area getting showers/storms and another not is common sense and expected. SE being hot and sunny and cardiff being 'positively chilly', is not...small island, massive contrasts!

That mass coming up from the S is worth watching still

Heatwave....i'll say

Truth be told, I cannot say I find Friday's GFS charts promising at all at the moment - the CAPE for Thursday has already been downgraded a fair bit and pushed E towards SE/EA, then for Friday the best of the CAPE reserved for EA and not so much the SE corner. The hope for imports too looks poor at this stage, with most if not all staying across the channel. Still have two three more days to go, but at this stage - booo!

when i nipped out at around 11.30 this morning i felt quite chilly!! there was a breeze and heaps of cloud and it definitely felt colder!! random i know but all my work has been commenting on it!! but in contrast, i went out about 10 mins ago and it's now very warm and slightly uncomfortable!!

Edited June 30, 2009 by kookylou

[richep]

sort of glad its going to miss me, got to go to work in a hour. Would'nt like to be in work when ther was something going on outside

[Tim]

Chilly??

It's amazing how different the weather can be around a relatively small island - one area getting showers/storms and another not is common sense and expected. SE being hot and sunny and cardiff being 'positively chilly', is not...small island, massive contrasts!!

Well I'm in Bristol and it's 25 degrees C humid but cloudy, well the sun although not out can be felt on the skin. I definately would not describe it as chilly!

[Bofh]

umm that mass seems to be dying out as it hits the south coast

and the rest is straying further west so i miss out again !

[Phil UK]

Same here, Tim. 25ºc, and feeling as humid as ... well humid! And with sporadic light drizzle. Clear skies to my east, pretty dark to my west and has been the exact same set up for the last two hours. Nothing seems to be moving at all.

Just like Saturday 27th June and yesterday afternoon... Borderline. Pfft!! We'll see what later on this afternoon/evening brings.

Phil.

[Dorset_Weather]

Raining now in north Dorset and 21c. Nothing else much happening, just dull and wet

[Wilxy]

Just had some light rain here and current temp is 24.5C also v muggy.

metoffice have advisory for thursday's event but not getting my hopes up what so ever.

[Harry]

Have surpassed the 30C mark here now - very calm - absolutely no sign of convection in any form, in any direction!

Not even any contrails!

[Harry]

Oh my, this is so depressing people posting about light rain and how it's cloudy and dull. I know it's easy to stray off topic but unless anything is happening or is likely to happen convectively then there shouldn't be posts about the current weather. There's another place for that in the 'todays weather and general chat' thread.

I suspect the people posting about light rain are those who are praying to the angels that it will rapidly intensify into something more convective in nature...stranger things have happened

In all seriousness though, it is a convective thread so I can't see why we cannot discuss the lack of convection in here

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry